Spain vs Germany Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 18:00 GMT 5th July 2024 |
| Prediction | Spain to Win! |
| Odds | @2.74 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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This quarterfinal will pit the two form teams at the 2024 UEFA European Championship against one another, as host nation Germany take on Spain at the MHPArena. Spain have won all four of their matches so far, scoring nine goals and conceding just once (during the 4-1 victory over Georgia in the round of 16). As for Julian Nagelsmann’s team, they’re the tournament’s top scorers with 10 goals, although they’ve conceded against Scotland and Switzerland and looked a little less secure defensively. But which of these continental heavyweights will prevail in Stuttgart, and what have Ireland’s best betting sites had to say?
🏆 Spain vs Germany Prediction
This is a meeting of the two highest scoring nations at Euro 2024, while Germany and Spain are also among the most efficient teams in the attacking third. To this end, Spain have accumulated an xG of 9.14 in the tournament so far and only underperformed this by -0.14 goals. This includes an xG of 3.53 in the 4-1 win over Georgia alone, which is the highest such value during a single match at the Euros.
As for Germany, they’ve accumulated an xG of 8.31 across their four matches, and outperformed this by an impressive +1.69 goals. They’ve also hit the target with 28 of their 71 shots on goal (39.43%), highlighting the quality of finishing that exists within the side. Super sub Niclas Füllkrug has embodied this level of efficiency, scoring twice from just three attempts and averaging a goal every 49.5 minutes so far.
Despite Germany and Spain averaging 62% and 58.5% possession per 90 minutes during Euro 2024 so far, they’re also among the tournament’s best pressing teams. La Roja have completed 165 ball recoveries during their four matches, for example, with Germany having recorded just four fewer (161). So, this should be a high octane quarterfinal tie, during which both sides will have spells in possession and look to counter press aggressively when the ball is turned over.
Of the 10 players to create the most chances at Euro 24, four play for either Spain or Germany (Toni Kroos, Lamine Yamal, Pedri and Nico Williams). La Roja arguably boast the more potent and varied attacking threat, however, with the wing pair of Yamal and Williams creating 20 chances between them and completing 40 dribbles. This may prove crucial in Stuttgart, where I’m tipping Spain to prevail and eliminate the hosts in what could be a thrilling match!
My Prediction: 🏆Spain 2 – 1 Germany⚽
💯 Spain vs Germany Betting Odds
The win market odds reflect the respective quality of both sides and just how difficult this match is to call. The good news is that there are plenty of betting lines and markets that you can target, including the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes and both teams to score. But how are these markets currently being priced?
🏅 Spain vs Germany: Match Winner
Spain are the narrowest of betting favourites to defeat Germany, with their pre-game odds of 2.70 implying a 37.03% probability of La Roja prevailing at the MHPArena. Conversely, you can back the host nation to prevail at around 2.85, suggesting that they have a 35.08% chance of beating Spain for the first time in five attempts. The draw is the least statistically likely outcome, with an average price of 3.15, implying a 31.74% probability of the match being tied after 90 minutes.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain to Win | 2.70 | 2.74 | 2.60 | 2.74 | 2.70 |
| Germany to Win | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.85 | 2.88 | 2.85 |
| Draw to Win | 3.10 | 3.21 | 3.10 | 3.21 | 3.15 |
⚽ Spain vs Germany: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in five of Spain’s 10 previous matches (50%). Luis de la Fuente’s team have managed to keep four clean sheets during this sequence, while failing to score once during a 1-0 loss to Colombia. Both competing sides have also found the net in five of Germany’s last 10 games. Nagelsmann’s team have kept four clean sheets and drawn just two blanks.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.73 | 1.76 | 1.71 | 1.76 | 1.80 |
| No | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 2.00 | 2.03 |
🥅 Spain vs Germany: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Spain’s previous 10 matches have also yielded a total of 36 goals at a rate of 3.6 per game. La Roja have scored 28 times during this sequence at an average of 2.8 per 90 minutes (while conceding just eight times). Germany’s last 10 encounters have produced 27 goals at a rate of 2.7 per 90, with the host nation scoring 18 times at an average of 1.8 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.79 |
✔️ Spain vs Germany Betting Tips
Whether you want to wager your real money bankroll or available free bets on the match between Spain and Germany, it’s crucial that you identify the best value markets. Here are some expert tips to help you achieve this objective!
- Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: Interestingly, the odds imply a 57.80% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in Stuttgart. However, these two sides have scored 19 goals in just eight tournament matches so far, while their previous 20 games combined have produced 63 goals at an average of 3.15 per 90 minutes. Four of the 10 most creative players at Euro 2024 will also be on the field at the MHPArena. So, despite the magnitude of the occasion, there’s value in backing over 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.08 with 20BET Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Spain to Win: All Spain vs Germany betting markets are only applicable for 90 minutes, with the La Roja priced at 2.70 to prevail during this time. This implies a 37.03% probability of a win for Spain, who have lost just one of their previous eight head-to-head clashes with Germany since a 4-1 friendly defeat in August 2000. Spain have also been the form team at Euro 2024, with the direct wing threat of Lamal and Williams supplemented by the creativity of Pedri and Fabian Ruiz. So, there’s value in picking Spain to win outright at a price of 2.74 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Jamal Musiala as an Anytime Goalscorer: It has been a breakthrough tournament for Jamal Musiala, who has scored three goals at Euro 2024 and is the joint-top scorer. He has also completed an impressive 28 dribbles so far and made 13 runs into the attacking third, while his tally of 10 key passes further highlights his influence on the German attack. Spain were occasionally vulnerable to Georgia’s direct running in defensive transition too, and Musiala may get some joy when committing players. So, consider backing him as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 4.00 with Royalist Play Sports.
1️⃣ Spain Update
Not only have Spain now won six successive matches, but La Roja have lost just one of their previous 16 games since a shock 2-0 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park on March 28th, 2023. This was also Spain’s last competitive defeat, with Colombia the only team to beat them since in an international friendly. This 16-match run has also seen La Roja score 46 goals at an average of 2.87 per 90 minutes, while they’ve only conceded 10 times at the other end. PSG playmaker Fabian Ruiz has been pivotal during this sequence, while his four Euro 2024 appearances have seen him produce four goal involvements (two goals and two assists) and complete 11 key passes.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Spain 4 Georgia 1 | 30.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16 |
| Albania 0 Spain 1 | 24.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Spain 1 Italy 0 | 20.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Spain 3 Croatia 1 | 15.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Spain 5 Northern Ireland 1 | 08.06.24 International Friendly |
Spain have no new injury or suspension concerns for the quarterfinal clash with Germany, with manager De la Fuente expected to name an unchanged side. This will include the feared front three of Yamal, Williams and Alvaro Morata, while the 21-year-old Pedri is expected to keep his place ahead of Dani Olmo (who impressed and scored off the bench against Georgia).
2️⃣ Germany Update
The German side is now unbeaten in all eight matches in 2024, including their four Euro 2024 matches so far. This followed an horrendous 2023, which featured a record equalling six defeats and saw Hansi Flick become the first ever German national team coach to be sacked from the role. Even new coach Nagelsmann struggled initially, but his switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation and restoration of Toni Kroos to the heart of the midfield and yielded stellar results. Kroos has certainly shone during the tournament, creating 13 chances so far and completing 416 of his 435 passes (95.75%). He has also completed an astonishing 42 key passes.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Germany 2 Denmark 0 | 29.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16 |
| Switzerland 1 Germany 1 | 23.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 2 Hungary 0 | 19.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 5 Scotland 1 | 14.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 2 Greece 1 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
Nagelsmann must decide whether to recall Jonathan Tah, who served a suspension during the round of 16. His replacement Nico Schlotterbeck performed well in his stead, even supplying an assist for Jamal Musiala’s goal. Left back Maximilian Mittelstadt could also be restored ahead of David Raum at left back, while Leverkusen starlet Florian Wirtz is expected to return after being rested. Kai Havertz should continue to lead the line while Niclas Füllkrug starts on the bench.
👕 Spain vs Germany Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Spain 4-3-3- | Germany 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | U. Simon | M. Neuer | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | D. Carvajal | J. Kimmich | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Le Normand | A. Rudiger | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Laporte | N. Schlotterbeck | Centre Back |
| Left Back | M. Cucurella | M. Mittelstadt | Left Back |
| Midfielder | Pedri | R. Andrich | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Rodri | T. Kroos | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | F. Ruiz | I. Gündoğan | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | L. Yamal | J. Musiala | Wide Forward |
| Striker | A. Morata | K. Havertz | Striker |
| Wide Forward | N. Williams | F. Wirtz | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
