Spain vs Georgia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

spain-v-georgia-prediction-euro-2024 spain-v-georgia-prediction-euro-2024
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 30th June 2024
PredictionSpain to Win!
Odds@1.22
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.22
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Sportaza
Odds : 1.22
Bet €100 and win €122 if Spain win.
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3.
20​BET Sports
Odds : 1.21
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Spain-vs-Georgia-logo Spain-vs-Georgia-logo

Georgia’s maiden UEFA European Championship campaign reached new heights earlier in their week, with their stunning 2-0 win over Georgia securing qualification as one of the tournament’s best third place teams. However, they’ll now face a Spanish side that has been one of the few to impress at Euro 2024, while they also lost 7-1 to Luis de la Fuente’s charges during the course of qualifying for the competition. La Roja are also the heavy favourites to win again among Ireland’s best betting sites, but will they deliver on this status in Cologne? Or can Georgia spring the mother of all surprises at the RheinEnergieStadion?

🏆 Spain vs Georgia Prediction

Spain have shone at Euro 2024 so far, despite deviating slightly from their usual playing style. In fact, they’ve only averaged 54% possession per 90 minutes, with this percentage bettered by Germany, Portugal and England. However, Spain have also completed 66 dribbles collectively, with Nico Williams and the precocious Lamine Yamal providing pace and penetration in the wide attacking areas.

Williams and Yamal have completed 23 dribbles between them at Euro 2024. The latter has also contributed seven key passes and assisted Dani Carvajal’s goal against Croatia, while completing two of his five crosses (40%). This exciting wing pair will have a key role to play against the Georgians too, with their opponents likely to defend incredibly narrow and cede space on the flanks.

The Georgians also worked tirelessly to qualify from Group F, although their historic win over Portugal did come after Roberto Martinez had made eight changes to his starting 11. They certainly outfought and outran their more illustrious opponents in Gelsenkirchen, with this typical of their performances throughout the group stages. No team have recovered more balls than Georgia (134), while they also top the charts for attempted tackles (55), tackles won (27) and clearances made (100).

I expect Georgia to showcase a similar level of desire and defensive organisation against Spain. The question that remains is whether they can sustain this for 90 minutes against their in-form opponents, especially so soon after their hard-earned win over the Portuguese. I think not, and I expect La Roja to ultimately prevail comfortably at the RheinEnergieStadion.

My Prediction: 🏆Spain 3 – 1 Georgia⚽

💯 Spain vs Georgia Betting Odds

Spain are the overwhelming betting favourites to prevail against Georgia, so there’s arguably minimal value in backing them to prevail outright. However, you can also bet on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes in Cologne. Here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re currently being priced?

🏅 Spain vs Georgia: Match Winner

Currently, Spain are priced at around 1.20 to defeat Georgia, with these odds implying an 83.33% probability of a win for La Roja. As for Willy Sagnol’s team, they can be backed to prevail at a distant 15.00, so they only have a 6.66% chance of recording just their second ever victory over Spain. The draw is priced at 6.50, implying a 15.38% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes. This is significantly lower than the actual occurrence of draws in association football.

Team
Spain to Win1.201.221.191.221.21
Georgia to Win15.0015.0016.0015.0015.00
Draw to Win6.506.006.506.006.60

⚽ Spain vs Georgia: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in just four of Spain’s 10 previous matches. Luis de la Fuente’s team have kept an impressive five clean sheets during this run and failed to score once (against Colombia on March 22nd). Both sides have found the net in five of Georgia’s last 10 games, with Sagnol’s men keeping five clean sheets drawing a single blank.

Yes/No
Yes2.502.502.442.502.43
No1.501.501.461.501.56

🥅 Spain vs Georgia: Over/Under Goals Odds

The previous 10 matches contested by Spain have yielded 32 goals at a rate of 3.2 per game, with La Roja scoring 25 times during this sequence and conceding seven at an average of 0.7 per 90 minutes. The Spaniards also defeated Georgia 3-1 during this run as part of their Euro 2024 qualification campaign. The last 10 encounters featuring Georgia have produced 34 goals in total at a rate pf 3.4 per 90. They’ve struck 24 of these goals at a rate of 2.4 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.671.661.651.661.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.222.172.222.27

✔️ Spain vs Georgia Betting Tips

Betting on Spain vs Georgia requires careful analysis of the available markets and performance stats, especially if you want to make the most of your real money bankroll and available free bets. Here are some expert betting tips to help inform your picks!

  • Tip 1: Back Spain to Win with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals : Georgia were impressive in their win against Portugal, but their opponents rested eight first-choice players in Gelsenkirchen. Previously, they’d lost their last five matches against top-10 FIFA ranked sides by an aggregate score of 17-3, including a 7-1 defeat to Spain in Tblisi and 3-1 reversal in Valladolid during Euro 2024 qualification. Willy Sagnol’s squad lacks depth too, so there’s little opportunity to refresh the team after their heroic performance against the Portuguese. So, get on Spain to win with a nominal handicap of -1.5 goals at the enhanced price of 1.66 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Spain to Win with Over 2.5 Goals: You can also access enhanced odds through combination betting. Not only do the odds imply an 83.33% probability of La Roja prevailing in Cologne, but their last two wins against Georgia have produced a whopping 12 goals. The last 20 matches featuring either Spain or Georgia have also produced 66 goals at a rate of 3.3 per 90 minutes, and I expect there to be plenty of chances created at the RheinEnergieStadion. The pre-game odds also imply a 60.24% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, so back this and Spain to win at a price of 1.73 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: Interestingly, the BTTS odds imply just a 40% chance of both teams scoring in Cologne. However, Georgia found the net in their two recent defeats against Spain and have scored in each of their Euro 2024 matches so far. They’ve also scored in 11 of their previous 12 matches overall, since a 2-0 loss to Scotland at Hampden Park on June 20th, 2023. They possess exceptional talent and movement in their front two, with the superb Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scoring against Portugal. He has also completed 21 dribbles and made 20 runs into the attacking third at Euro 2024, so get both teams to score here at the competitive price of 2.50 with Sportaza Sports.

1️⃣ Spain Update

When Spain’s players trudged off Hampden Park after their 2-0 defeat to Scotland on March 28th, 2023, few pundits were picking them to win Euro 2024. However, they’ve since embarked on a run of just one defeat in 15 matches, scoring an impressive 42 goals in this sequence at an average of 2.8 per 90. They’ve conceded just nine times during this run too. They topped Group B with relative ease as well, winning all three of their matches by an aggregate score of 5-0. PSG’s Fabian Ruiz also shone during the group stage and will be key to breaking down Georgia’s defence, as he already has a goal and assist to his name and played seven key passes in total.

Last 5 Games
Albania 0
Spain 1
24.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 1
Italy 0
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 3
Croatia 1
15.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 5
Northern Ireland 1
08.06.24
International Friendly
Spain 5
Andorra 0
05.06.24
International Friendly

Spain made 11 changes for the 1-0 win over Albania, but the likes of Ruiz, Nico Williams, Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Alvaro Morata are expected to return in Cologne. The reliable Rodri is also back from a one-game ban. Spain’s only doubts for the match against Georgia are Nacho Fernandez and Ayoze Perez, who are both struggling with muscle injuries and continue to be assessed.

Player Reason
Nacho Fernandez Muscle Injury
Ayoze Perez Muscle Injury

2️⃣ Georgia Update

Georgia’s historic win against Portugal was their first at a major tournament, after an entertaining 3-1 defeat to Turkey and hard-earned 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic earlier in the competition. Overall, the team have now won five of their previous 10 matches, with this sequence including a 3-1 loss to round-of-16 opponents Spain during qualifying. If they’re to avenge this defeat and spring the biggest upset in European Championship history, they’ll rely heavily on experienced Slovan Bratislava centre back Guram Kashia. He has recovered 22 balls at the tournament so far, while completing 21 of his 29 clearances and making six blocks.

Last 5 Games
Georgia 2
Portugal 0
26.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Georgia 1
Czech Republic 1
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 3
Georgia 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Montenegro 1
Georgia 3
09.06.24
International Friendly
Georgia 0
Greece 0
26.03.24
UEFA Euro 2024 Qualification – Path C Playoff Final

Georgia will welcome back midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili from suspension in time for the match against Spain, and is widely expected to return to Willy Sagnol’s starting 11. Otherwise, the Frenchman is likely to maintain the same team that started against Portugal, while retaining the 3-5-2 formation that combines Kvaratskhelia in attack with the tournament’s top scorer Georges Mikautadze.

👕 Spain vs Georgia Potential Lineups

Pos. Spain
4-3-3-
Georgia
3-5-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper U. Simon G. Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Carvajal S. Kvirkvelia Right Centre Back
Centre Back R. Le Normand G. Kashia Centre Back
Centre Back A. Laporte L. Dvali Left Centre Back
Left Back M. Cucurella O. Kakabadze Right Wing Back
Midfielder Pedri G. Chakvetadze Central Midfielder
Midfielder Rodri A. Mekvabishvili Central Midfielder
Midfielder F. Ruiz G. Kochorashvili Central Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Yamal G. Tsitaishvili Left Wing Back
Striker A. Morata G. Mikautadze Striker
Wide Forward N. Williams K. Kvaratskhelia Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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