Spain vs France Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

🏆 Spain vs France Prediction

Few pundits picked Spain to win Euro 2024 prior to the tournament, but they’re now the outright favourites having swept all before them in Germany so far. In fact, they’ve won all five of their matches by an aggregate score of 11-2, while accumulating an impressive xG of 10.56 and outperforming this by +0.44 goals.

La Roja certainly boast one of the most varied and effective attacks at the tournament. After all, they’ve initiated 312 attacks and executed 10 assists collectively, while their tally of 111 completed dribbles is higher than any other nation remaining in the competition. The exciting wing pair of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have completed 49 dribbles between them, while Dani Olmo has completed 17 dribbles alone despite only recording 265 minutes of playing time.

Although France have accumulated a respectable xG of 7.81 during their five matches, they’ve struggled to make the most of their chances in the attacking third. Not only have they underperformed their xG by -4.81 goals, for example, but their tally of three tournament goals has included two own goals and a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland. The usually clinical Mbappe has embodied Les Bleus’ issues in the final third, with his single goal coming from a whopping 20 attempts (a conversion-rate of just 5%).

The good news for France is that Spain will be without defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand due to suspension, so La Roja may have some weakness on the right-hand side of their defence. However, Deschamps’ men faced an xGa of 1.72 in 120 minutes against Portugal and occasionally looked vulnerable against a high quality attack, and Spain are perfectly placed to exploit such fragility. So, I’m tipping them to prevail in extra-time after a tied 90 minutes.

💯 Spain vs France Match Betting Odds

The win market reflects just how tight this semi-final is, with neither Spain or France overwhelming favourites to prevail at the Allianz Arena. However, there are other markets and betting lines for you to explore, including both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Spain vs France: Match Winner

Spain are the narrowest of pre-game favourites to defeat France at the Allianz Arena, with their odds of 2.62 implying a 38.16% probability of a victory for Luis de la Fuente’s side. Conversely, France are priced at around 3.10 to beat La Roja for the third time in four attempts, suggesting that they have a 32.25% of prevailing in 90 minutes. You can get on the draw at 2.90, implying a 34.48% probability of the match ending tied after normal time.

Team
Spain to Win	2.75	2.62	2.55	2.62	2.60
France to Win	3.00	3.10	3.20	3.10	3.15
Draw to Win	2.80	2.90	2.80	2.90	2.95

⚽ Spain vs France: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in five of Spain’s 10 last matches (50%). Luis de la Fuente’s side have kept four clean sheets during this run, while Colombia are the only team to prevent them from scoring (during a 1-0 defeat in March). Both sides have found the net in just three of the previous 10 matches contested by Les Blues (30%). France have kept an impressive six clean sheets during this sequence (including four at Euro 2024) and drawn four blanks in total.

Yes/No
Yes	2.00	2.10	1.97	2.10	2.10
No	1.73	1.71	1.71	1.71	1.74

🥅 Spain vs France: Over/Under Goals Odds

Spain’s previous 10 matches have also produced a total of 35 goals at a rate of 3.5 per game. La Roja have dominated the scoring during this sequence, finding the net on 27 occasions at an average of 2.7 per 90 minutes. As for France, their last 10 fixtures have yielded just 18 goals at the much lower rate of 1.8 per 90, while their five Euro 2024 games have seen just four goals scored in total at an average of 0.8 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.60	2.57	2.60	2.60
Under 2.5 Goals	1.50	1.50	1.47	1.50	1.52

1️⃣ Spain Update

After Mikel Merino’s late headed winner against Germany in Stuttgart, Spain have won seven consecutive matches (including all five at Euro 2024). They’ve also lost just one of their previous 17 matches in all competitions, since Scotland inflicted a surprise 2-0 defeat at Hampden Park back on March 28th, 2023. La Roja have found the net 48 times during this sequence at a rate of 2.82 per 90, while conceding just 11 goals. What’s more, RB Leipzig forward Dani Olmo has emerged as a key player for his country at the Euros despite limited playing time. In fact, he has contributed two goals and two assists in just 265 minutes, while making a total of 11 runs into the attacking thirds.

As I’ve touched on, both Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand collected their second bookings of the tournament against Germany and will miss the last four clash against France. The veteran pair of Jesus Navas and Nacho are expected to deputise. Spain will also be without young midfield playmaker Pedri, who suffered a medial collateral ligament knee sprain early on in Stuttgart and will be replaced with Dani Olmo. Striker Alvaro Morata is available for selection after UEFA confirmed that he wasn’t booked towards the end of the match against the hosts.

2️⃣ France Update

Not only have France kept a clean sheet in six of their last 10 matches, but they’ve only conceded once in 638 minutes of gameplay since Chile’s Darío Osorio breached their defences during a friendly match at the Stade Vélodrome in March. This solid defensive foundation means that Les Bleus have lost just two of their last 19 matches overall, with both of these inflicted by Germany during the course of friendly matches. Didier Deschamps’ men haven’t lost in 13 competitive matches since the 2022 FIFA World Cup final too, while these games have seen them concede a paltry three goals. Keeper ‘Magic’ Mike Maignan has been a rock for France at Euro 2024, boasting a staggering save ratio of 94% after five matches.

France have no injury or suspension concerns ahead of the clash with Spain. However, Kylian Mbappe continues to struggle with his existing nose injury, having been withdrawn in extra time against Portugal. Adrien Rabot is available once again after suspension, but it’s unclear whether he’ll return at the expense of the impressive Eduardo Camavinga in the semi-final. I expect Ousmane Dembele to start after his impressive cameo against the Portuguese, with Antoine Griezmann potentially dropping to the bench.

👕 Spain vs France Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.