Slovenia vs Serbia | Euro 2024 Prediction

slovenia-v-serbia-prediction slovenia-v-serbia-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable15:00 GMT 20th June 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds@3.60
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.60
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Slovenia vs serbia jun Slovenia vs serbia jun

These teams endured contrasting results in their UEFA European Championship Group C openers, with Slovenia overcoming a difficult start against Denmark to secure a hard-earned point in the second half. As for Serbia, they paid for a price for a passive start to the game against tournament favourites England in Gelsenkirchen, as they ultimately lost 1-0 following Jude Bellingham’s early goal. Dragan Stojković’s side are therefore in desperate need of three points against the Slovenians, who can also take a huge stride towards the round of 16 if they’re victorious. But will either side earn a potentially crucial win at the Allianz Arena in Munich?

🏆 Slovenia vs Serbia Prediction

Serbia’s clash with England certainly wasn’t one for the neutral, with the two sides registering a combined total of just 11 shots during the 90 minutes. Although Serbia produced six of these attempts (including one on target), this is the lowest tally on record in a European Championship match since data started to be accumulated in 1980.

So, despite forcing the pace for the second half of the match, Serbia struggled to convert their possession into sustained attacking threat or chances. They only managed to launch 33 attacks during the 90 minutes and completed just five dribbles (only Albania managed less during their 2-1 defeat to Italy), leaving the team unable to capitalise on England’s lack of ambition as the match progressed. The team’s cumulative xG against the Three Lions was just 0.17 too.

However, they also restricted England to an xG of just 0.52, while attempting 20 tackles and completing 17 clearances. I expect them to be just as competitive and defensively solid against Slovenia, who also made an impressive 34 clearances and completed 47 ball recoveries in their draw against the Danes.

These stats hint at a war of attrition at the Allianz Arena, in a match where chances may be at a premium. However, Slovenia have scored in 13 successive matches since June 2023, while Serbia boast genuine firepower in the form of Dušan Vlahović, Luka Jović and record goalscorer Aleksandar Mitrović. So, I’m predicting a fascinating clash and low scoring draw in Munich.

My Prediction: Slovenia 1 – 1 Serbia⚽

💯 Slovenia vs Serbia Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have published a huge array of Slovenia vs Serbia wagering markets, including both teams to score and the over/under and how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Of course, you can also bet on the match winner and final result here, so let’s take a look at the very latest odds.

🏅 Slovenia vs Serbia: Match Winner

Serbia are ranked 24 places higher than Slovenia, according to FIFA, so it should come as no surprise that they’re the pre-game favourites to win in Munich. You can currently back Serbia to prevail at average odds of 1.83, implying a 54.64% probability of a victory for Stojković’s team. The draw is the second most likely outcome, statistically speaking, with a price of around 3.50 suggesting that there’s a 28.57% chance of the game ending tied. Slovenia are priced at 4.50 to defeat their Group C rivals, implying a 22.22% probability of a win for the Dragons.

Team to Win
Slovenia to Win4.504.334.704.334.70
Serbia to Win1.831.851.821.851.89
Draw to Win3.503.603.403.603.50

⚽ Slovenia vs Serbia: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Not only have Slovenia scored in each of their previous 13 matches since a 2-0 defeat in Finland last summer, but both sides have found the net in eight of these encounters (62%). Conversely, both teams have scored in five of Serbia’s last 10 encounters overall (50%), with the Eagles keeping two clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.801.951.831.951.90
No1.911.861.831.861.91

🥅 Slovenia vs Serbia: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 13 consecutive matches in which Slovenia have scored have also produced 36 goals in total, at a rate of 2.76 per game. The Slovenians have scored 25 of these goals at the impressive rate of 1.92 per 90 minutes. Serbia’s previous 10 encounters have yielded 28 goals at a rate of 2.8 per 90, but they’ve scored and conceded 14 times at an average of 1.4 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.002.051.972.052.03
Under 2.5 Goals1.731.771.781.771.83

✔️ Slovenia vs Serbia - Betting Tips

Whether you intend to wager on this match using your real money bankroll or any available free bets that you have, it’s important to identify the best value markets. Here are some tips to help you achieve this objective and create value wherever possible!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: Although Slovenia only accumulated an xG of 1.01 against Denmark at the weekend, it’s important to remember that they’ve scored in each of their previous 13 matches. They also scored 20 goals in just 10 matches during qualification and failed to find the net only once against Finland. Serbia scored in all eight of their qualifiers and boast a proven goalscorer in the form of Aleksandar Mitrović, who has struck 58 times in just 92 international appearances. So, there’s value in backing both teams to score in Munich at a price of 1.95 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Dusan Tadic to Produce More than 0.5 Assists: Veteran playmaker Dusan Tadic didn’t start against England, but Stojković is likely restore his captain to the first 11 in a game where Serbia may well see more of the ball. The 35-year-old has recorded an incredible 245 career assists in just 717 matches, while he’s capable of creating chances both from open play and dead ball situations. Tadic also looked sharp during his 29-minute cameo against the Three Lions, so consider backing him to produce more than 0.5 assists here at a price of 2.60 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the First Half to See the Most Goals: Both Slovenia (11) and Serbia (eight) scored the majority of their Euro 2024 qualification goals during the first half of matches. They also conceded more often during this period, with Serbia shipping six goals in the first 45 minutes (compared to just three in the second half). So far, 20 of the 34 goals scored at the Euro 2024 finals have also been netted during the first half of games. There’s subsequent value to backing the first half to be the highest scoring here at the competitive price of 3.30 with 20BET Sports.

1️⃣ Slovenia Update

In addition to scoring in their last 13 matches, Slovenia have only lost once during this sequence (a 2-1 defeat to Denmark in Copenhagen on November 17th, 2023). This run includes impressive victories over Portugal (in an international friendly) and Finland, while it also saw the Dragons finish level on points with the Danes during the course of Euro qualification. As I’ve touched on, Slovenia were also highly combative when drawing with Denmark in the Group C opener, and they really grew into the game from an attacking perspective. Full back Erik Janža got the equalising goal in the second half and produced an all-action display on the left, recovering eight balls and completing three passes into the attacking third.

Last 5 Games
Slovenia 1
Denmark 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Bulgaria 1
08.06.24
International Friendly
Slovenia 2
Armenia 1
04.06.24
International Friendly
Slovenia 2
Portugal 0
26.03.24
International Friendly
Malta 2
Slovenia 2
21.03.24
International Friendly

Matjaz Kek is unlikely to make any unforced changes for the clash with Serbia, as he sticks with the same personnel and compact 4-4-2 formation fielded against Denmark. However, Udinese midfielder Sandi Lovric is close to recovering from the hamstring injury that he incurred prior to the tournament, and he may play some role from the bench at the Allianz Arena.

Player Reason
Sandi Lovric Hamstring Injury

2️⃣ Serbia Update

Serbia’s recent form has stuttered noticeably after a relatively solid qualification campaign, with the Eagles having won just two of their previous seven matches following the 1-0 defeat against England at the weekend. They’ve also drawn three blanks and scored just seven goals during this sequence, with top scorer Mitrović having only found the net once. He certainly struggled without much service in Gelsenkirchen, despite the relative ease with which Serbia progressed the ball into the final third at times. Left sided centre back Strahinja Pavlovic played a key role offensively despite a torrid first half against Bukayo Saka, as he ultimately recovered seven balls in total and completed six passes into the attacking third.

Last 5 Games
Serbia 0
England 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Sweden 0
Serbia 3
08.06.24
International Friendly
Austria 2
Serbia 1
04.06.24
International Friendly
Cyprus 0
Serbia 1
25.03.24
International Friendly
Russia 4
Serbia 0
21.03.24
International Friendly

Serbia arrived in Germany without any major injury concerns or absentees, but wing back Filip Kostic limped off against England with a suspected muscle injury. He’ll continue to be assessed ahead of the match with Slovenia, but may be replaced by Filip Mladenović. Manager Stojković may also look to adjust the balance of his midfield in order to create a more attack-oriented team in Munich, with Dusan Tadic likely to start in place of Sergej Milinkovic-Savic.

Player Reason
Filip Kostic Muscle Injury

👕 Slovenia vs Serbia Potential Lineups

Pos. Slovenia
4-4-2
Serbia
3-4-1-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Oblak P. Rajković Goalkeeper
Right Back Z. Karničnik M. Veljković Right Centre Back
Centre Back V. Drkušić N. Milenković Centre Back
Centre Back J. Bijol S. Pavlović Left Centre Back
Left Back E. Janža A. Živković Right Wing Back
Right Midfielder P. Stojanović N. Gudelj Central Midfielder
Central Midfielder A. Gnezda Čerin S. Lukić Central Midfielder
Central Midfielder T. M. Elšnik F. Mladenović Left Wing Back
Left Midfielder J. Mlakar D. Tadic Attacking Midfielder
Striker A. Šporar D. Vlahović Striker
Striker B. Šeško A. Mitrović Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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