Serbia vs England Prediction, Betting Tips, Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 16th June 2024
PredictionEngland to Win!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.48
Bet €100 and win €148 if England win.
Odds : 1.48
Bet €100 and win €148 if England win.

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20​BET Sports
Odds : 1.46
Bet €100 and win €146 if England win.
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It’s interesting to note that England are the outright favourites to win the 17th iteration of UEFA European Championship in 2024, despite a slightly underwhelming World Cup campaign in the winter of 2022 and Germany’s status as host nation. Gareth Southgate’s side will certainly expect to start their campaign with a win over Serbia at the Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen on June 16th, especially with 20 places separating the two teams in FIFA’s latest rankings. However, Serbian talisman Aleksandar Mitrović offers a huge attacking threat having scored 98 goals in his last 118 club appearances, while the Three Lions could be without several key players in defence. But which team do I think will prevail in this Group C encounter?

🏆 Serbia vs England Prediction

England struck 22 goals in their eight Euro qualification matches, with only Portugal, France and Spain scoring more. However, they only mounted a total of 326 attacks and struck just 100 attempts at goal. The latter statistic is particularly interesting, as only Scotland (81) and Albania (72) had fewer shots among the nations that successfully qualified for the Euro 2024 finals.

This seems to reaffirm the idea that the Three Lions are continuing to play with the handbrake on under manager Gareth Southgate, despite his ability to call on genuine world-class talents in Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Champions League winner Jude Bellingham. Ultimately, it was the quality and incisiveness of these players that helped England to qualify as comfortably as they did, with an impressive 46 of the side’s 100 goal attempts finding the target (46%).

Although England averaged slightly more possession per 90 minutes than Serbia during qualifying (62.6% vs 59.5%), both teams completed more than 86% of their passes and are incredibly comfortable with the ball at their feet. Of course, Serbia lacks England’s roster of star players, but veteran midfielder Dusan Tadic struck two goals and contributed four assists during qualifying, averaging a goal involvement every 108 minutes for his country.

Ultimately, I expect England’s attacking depth and quality to prove pivotal, especially with Kane, Foden and Bellingham all expected to start at the Arena AufSchalke. However, I’m also predicting a close and evenly matched contest in which both sides score, with the powerful Mitrović likely to prove a handful for England’s under-strength defence.

My Prediction: Serbia 1 – 2 England⚽

💯 Serbia vs England Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published a huge selection of lines and markets ahead of the clash between Serbia and England. These include the win market, both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Gelsenkirchen. But how are these incredibly popular markets currently being priced?

🏅 Serbia vs England: Match Winner

The Three Lions are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Serbia in their Group C opener, with their average odds of 1.46 implying a 68.49% probability of a win for Gareth Southgate’s charges. As for Serbia, they can be backed to prevail at around 6.75, suggesting that they have just a 14.81% chance of beating England for the first time since becoming an independent nation. You can back the draw at 4.33, implying a 23.09% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team to win
Serbia to Win7.006.506.756.506.60
England to Win1.441.481.461.481.46
Draw to Win4.504.334.304.33.4.30

⚽ Serbia vs England: Both Teams To Score

Both sides found the net in six of Serbia’s eight qualification matches (75%), with ‘The Eagles’ keeping one clean sheet and drawing a single blank. Overall, they conceded just nine goals at a rate of 1.12 per 90 minutes. Conversely, both teams scored in four of England’s eight qualification matches (50%). The Three Lions kept four clean sheets and scored every time they took to the field.


🥅 Serbia vs England: Over/Under Goals

The eight qualification matches contested by Serbia yielded a total of 24 goals, at a rate of exactly 3.00 per game. The Serbs scored 15 of these goals at a rate of 1.87 per 90 minutes. The eight contests featuring England produced 26 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.25 per 90, although the Three Lions scored 22 of these goals at the impressive average of 2.75 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.801.771.811.771.79
Under 2.5 Goals1.911.961.941.962.00

✔️ Serbia vs England Betting Tips

As England are heavy favourites to defeat Serbia (and the Eagles have only a 14.81% probability of winning from a statistical perspective), there’s little value to be found in the win market. However, there are plenty of alternative betting lines to explore, while combination wagering may also offer enhanced value here. Here are some tips and insights to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back England to Win and Both Teams to Score: While the odds imply a slightly lower probability of both teams scoring in Gelsenkirchen (51.02%), England could well be without two key defenders in the form of Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw. This leaves the Three Lions under-strength in central defence and at left back, with these vulnerabilities laid bare during recent friendlies against Brazil and Belgium. Serbia certainly have the qualities to exploit these despite England’s overall superiority, so get on England to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.30 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Between 2 and 3 Goals Being Scored in the Game: Between them, the 16 qualification matches contested by Serbia and England produced a total of 50 goals, at a rate of 3.12 per 90. Because of this, the odds imply a 55.86% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes, and I’ve already touched on how both teams retain a genuine goal threat. Interestingly, you can back there to be between 2 and 3 goals scored in the game at the competitive price of 2.00 with Sportaza Sports, which in this instance offers genuine value when compared to traditional over/under wagering.
  • Tip 3: Back the First Goal to be Scored Between Minutes 31 and 45: Of the 26 goals scored in England’s qualifying matches, eight have been scored during the 31st and 45 minute (31%). Intriguingly, eight of the 24 goals during Serbia’s qualification games were scored during the same period (33.33%), although the Eagles conceded five of these. So, if you have one or more free bets available on your account, consider backing the first goal to be scored between minutes 31 and 45 at the extended price of 10.14 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Serbia Euro Update

Serbia won four and lost two of their Euro 2024 qualification matches, as they accumulated 14 points (at a rate of 1.75 per game) and finished three points clear of Montenegro in second place. This sequence included key victories on the road in Podgorica and against Lithuania, although they lost both home and away to eventual group winners Hungary. Overall, the Eagles are on a run of one win in four matches after recent friendly defeats against Russia (4-0) and Belgium (1-0). Another potentially key player for the Serbs is Filip Mladenović, with the Panathinaikos left back having contributed three assists and completed 70% of his crosses during qualifying.

Last 5 Games
Cyprus 0
Serbia 1
International Friendly
Russia 4
Serbia 0
International Friendly
Serbia 2
Bulgaria 2
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group G
Belgium 1
Serbia 0
International Friendly
Serbia 3
Montenegro 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group G

Serbia survived a major scare ahead of the Euros after the talismanic Mitrović (who is his country’s record scorer with 57 goals in 89 international appearances) injured his thigh at the beginning of April. However, he recovered quickly and will be fit to start against England. Otherwise, manager Dragon Stojikovic has no injuries to contend with as he prepares to announce his final squad.

2️⃣ England Euro Update

England were typically dominant during qualifying, as they won six of their eight Group C matches and went unbeaten throughout the entirety of the campaign. Southgate’s men have now lost just one of their previous 13 matches since their last eight defeats to France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup. However, the Three Lions have only won one of their last four matches overall, with this sequence including draws against North Macedonia and Belgium and a friendly defeat by Brazil at Wembley. It should come as no surprise that talisman Harry Kane starred during qualifying, scoring eight goals and laying on two assists in just 607 minutes of playing time. This equates to a goal contribution every 60.7 minutes for the Bayern striker.

Last 5 Games
England 3
Bosnia 0
International Friendly
England 2
Belgium 2
International Friendly
North Macedonia 1
England 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C
England 2
Malta 0
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C
England 0
Brazil 1
International Friendly

England’s defensive vulnerabilities are being compounded by the combined absence of Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire, who are both struggling with muscle injuries. Neither is expected to be fit for the upcoming friendly against Iceland, while Shaw hasn’t played for four months and may not make Southgate’s final 26-man squad. Man City centre back John Stones also remains a doubt for the Group C opener with an unknown injury. Bukayo Saka has a muscle complaint, but is expected to play a part in the match against Iceland at Wembley later this week.

Player Reason
Luke Shaw Muscle Injury
Harry Maguire Muscle Injury
John Stones Unknown Injury
Bukayo Saka Muscle Injury

👕 Serbia vs England Potential Lineups

Pos. Serbia
Goalkeeper V. Milinkovic-Savic J. Pickford Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back S. Erakovic K. Walker Right Back
Centre Back N. Milenković J. Stones Centre Back
Left Centre Back S. Pavlović H. Maguire Centre Back
Right Wing Back A. Živković K. Trippier Left Back
Central Midfielder N. Gudelj D. Rice Midfielder
Central Midfielder S. Lukić K. Mainoo Midfielder
Left Wing Back F. Mladenović J. Bellingham Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder S. Milinković-Savić B. Saka Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder D. Tadić H. Kane Striker
Striker A. Mitrović P. Foden Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.