Romania vs Ukraine Prediction, Betting Tips, Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable15:00 GMT 17th June 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds@3.50
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.50
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Sportaza
Odds : 3.50
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Group E in the 2024 UEFA European Championship kicks off with the clash between Romania and Ukraine, who will do battle at the Allianz Arena in Munich on June 17th. A win for either side here would kickstart their campaign and put them in pole position to qualify, with Belgium favourites to top the group and Slovakia the lowest ranked team of the four. This is subsequently likely to be a tight and tense game, with neither team particularly prolific or exciting in the attacking third. But will we see a winner here, and what odds are Ireland’s best betting sites offering across its range of markets?

🏆 Romania vs Ukraine Prediction

Romania enjoyed a much smoother passage to Germany, topping UEFA qualification Group I ahead of Switzerland and Israel. Conversely, Ukraine finished third behind England and Italy in Group C, advancing to the playoffs courtesy of their 2023 Nations League performance and ultimately defeating Iceland in the Path B final.

However, both teams performed well from a defensive perspective, conceding a combined 13 goals in 18 qualification matches. Romania were particularly solid and well-organised, conceding just five times in their 10 games while completing 368 ball recoveries and 113 tackles. They also attempted 183 clearances and kept six clean sheets.

Romania were arguably the better side offensively during qualifying too, as they launched a total of 408 attacks (ranking seventh among the nations who have reached the Euro 2024 finals). They also attempted 145 shots on goal, compared to just 107 for Ukraine. Midfielder Olimpiu Morutan was an excellent attacking outlet for the Romanians, as he contributed four assists in six matches and completed 157 of his 194. However, he has been ruled out of the tournament through injury.

However, the Ukraine are more seasoned in tournament football, having qualified for the European Championship for the fourth successive finals. Conversely, Romania are appearing in only their second major finals since 2008, while they lack a proven international goalscorer in their squad. Because of this and the potential magnitude of this Group E opener, I’m predicting this match to end in a low-scoring draw.

My Prediction: Romania 1 – 1 Ukraine⚽

💯 Romania vs Ukraine Match Odds

Successfully betting on the match between Romania and Ukraine requires you to pick the best value markets. There are numerous markets that you can target, with the most popular including moneyline betting, both teams to score and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest odds.

🏅 Romania vs Ukraine: Match Winner

Ukraine are placed 24 places higher than Romania in FIFA’s latest ranking, so it’s not necessarily surprising that they’re the pre-game favourites to defeat Romania in Munich. You can back them to win at a price of 2.14, implying a 46.72% probability that Viktor Prokopenko’s men will start their Euro 2024 campaign with three points. Romania are priced at around 3.25, so they have a 30.76% chance of achieving the same objective. You can bet on the draw at 3.30, which implies a 30.30% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Romania to Win3.503.253.503.25TBA
Ukraine to Win2.152.142.102.14TBA
Draw to Win3.303.503.303.50TBA

⚽ Romania vs Ukraine: Both Teams To Score

Both teams scored in just four of Romania’s 10 qualifying matches (40%), with Edward Iordănescu’s team keeping an impressive five clean sheets and failing to score just twice (during 0-0 draws in Belarus and Kosovo). As for the Ukraine, both sides found the net in four of their eight qualifying games (50%). They kept three clean sheets (all at home) and drew just two blanks.

Yes/No
Yes2.002.001.852.00TBA
No1.731.761.801.76TBA

🥅 Romania vs Ukraine: Over/Under Goals

The 10 qualification matches contested by Romania yielded 21 goals in total, at a rate of 2.10 per game. The ‘Tricolorii’ only conceded five goals in total at a rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes. The Ukrainian team’s eight Group C encounters produced 19 goals at a rate of 2.37 per 90. They only scored 11 times at an average of 1.37 per game, so it’s no surprise that the odds imply a higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored here.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.202.202.13*goto Sportaza-Sports2.20]*TBA
Under 2.5 Goals1.621.621.661.62TBA

✔️ Romania vs Ukraine Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager with real money or your available free bets, there are plenty of markets that offer value ahead of the clash between Romania and Ukraine. You can also create combination bets to wager at enhanced odds, so here are some tips to help you get started!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: As I’ve touched on, neither of these teams is particularly prolific, so it’s no surprise that the odds imply a 56.81% probability of both sides not scoring in Munich. However, Romania scored in all but two of their 10 qualification matches, while the Ukrainian team also only failed to score twice in their eight games (against high quality opponents in the form of England and Italy). So, I think there’s value in backing both teams to score at the Allianz at the competitive price of 2.00 with ProntoBet Casino.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw with Under 2.5 Goals: The pre-game odds also imply a 61.72% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in this match. This makes sense, especially given that the combined 18 qualification matches contested by these sides (excluding playoff games) produced just 40 goals at a rate of 2.22 per 90 minutes. The historic head-to-head record also reveals three wins apiece, so there’s clearly very little to choose between these two teams. So, consider building a combination bet that backs the draw with under 2.5 goals at the enhanced price of 4.00 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Romania to Score First: Ukraine were noticeably slow starters during qualifying, scoring just five goals during the first 45 minutes of their fixtures and conceding nine. Conversely, Romania were bright from the outset and scored eight times (while conceding on just three occasions) during the same period. They’ve also scored six times in the opening 30 minutes of their games, so get on Romania to score first here at a price of 2.25 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Romania Euro Update

Romania went unbeaten during qualifying, winning six and drawing four of their 10 fixtures. So, although they were beaten 3-2 by Colombia in an international friendly last time out, this remains their sole defeat in their previous 13 matches since a 2-1 reversal to Slovenia on November 17th, 2022. They’ve also kept an impressive clean sheet in seven of these games while recording a pivotal 1-0 victory over fellow Euro 2024 finalists Switzerland during qualifying. Damac Winger Nicolae Stanciu top scored for the Romanians during the qualifying phase, contributing three goals (and one assist) in 10 matches and 827 minutes of playing time.

Last 5 Games
Colombia 3
Romania 2
26.03.24
International Friendly
Romania 1
Northern Ireland 1
22.03.24
International Friendly
Romania 1
Switzerland 0
21.11.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group I
Israel 1
Romania 2
18.11.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group I
Romania 4
Andorra 0
15.10.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group I

Romania suffered a huge blow when the aforementioned midfielder Olimpiu Moruțan was injured at the end of the match between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş last month. He suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon and won’t return to fitness for at least six months. Al-Okhdood centre-back Andrei Burcă also suffered a muscle tear at the end of April, but he has been named in the provisional squad and should be fit for the opening game.

Player Reason
Olimpiu Moruțan Achilles tendon
Andrei Burcă Muscle Tear

2️⃣ Ukraine Euro Update

The Ukrainian team has lost just one of their previous 10 matches since a 2-0 defeat to England at Wembley in March 2023. Italy recorded a 2-1 victory over Viktor Prokopenko’s side in September 2023, although Ukraine did earn a credible 0-0 draw against the Three Lions in Wrocław as part of this sequence. Overall, they were uninspired but tough to beat during qualifying, with their defensive organisation and experience more than compensating for any absence of firepower. However, Viktor Tsyhankov was a key creative force for Ukraine during qualifying, contributing three goals and an assist in 540 minutes of playing time.

Last 5 Games
Ukraine 2
Iceland 1
26.03.24
UEFA Euro Qualifiers - Path B Final
Bosnia 1
Romania 2
21.03.24
UEFA Euro Qualifiers - Path B Semi-Final
Ukraine 0
Italy 0
20.11.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C
Malta 1
Ukraine 2
17.10.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C
Ukraine 2
North Macedonia 0
14.10.23
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group C

Skipper Andriy Yarmolenko made his hotly anticipated return from an Achilles injury last month and will be 100% fit and ready for the tournament opener in Munich. Elsewhere, Everton full back Vitaliy Mykolenko is a doubt with an ankle knock, but he’s also expected to be fit for the clash with Romania.

Player Reason
Vitaliy Mykolenko Ankle Injury

👕 Romania vs Ukraine Potential Lineups

Pos. Romania
4-2-3-1
Ukraine
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper H. Moldovan A. Lunin Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Ratiu Y. Konoplya Right Back
Centre Back R. Drăgușin I. Zabarnyi Centre Back
Centre Back A. Burcă M. Matviyenko Centre Back
Left Back N. Bancu V. Mykolenko Left Back
Midfielder M. Marin V. Brazhko Midfielder
Midfielder A. Cicâldău H. Sudakov Midfielder
Midfielder N. Stanciu V. Tsyhankov Midfielder
Wide Forward G. Hagi A. Yarmolenko Wide Forward
Striker D. Alibec R. Yaremchuk Striker
Wide Forward F. Coman M. Mudryk Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.