Romania vs Netherlands Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 18:00 GMT 2nd July 2024 |
| Prediction | The Netherlands to Win! |
| Odds | @1.46 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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The bottom half of the UEFA European Championship draw has really opened up, especially after France and Belgium failed to win their respective groups. This has left England and the Netherlands as the two highest-ranked nations in this section of the draw, with the latter taking on Romania in Munich for a place in the quarterfinals. For their part, the ‘Tricolours’ surprisingly topped Group E and managed to thump Ukraine 3-0 in their tournament opener, while they’ll undoubtedly pose a significant counterattacking threat against the Dutch. But can they really upset the odds at the Allianz Arena, or will the superior individual quality in the Netherlands’ squad prove decisive?
🏆 Romania vs Netherlands Prediction
Romania were ruthless in transition during their 3-0 victory against Ukraine, and there’s no doubt that they’ve relied heavily on the counterattack at Euro 2024. To this end, they’ve only averaged 41.3% possession per 90 minutes during the tournament so far, while only five teams have managed fewer than their tally of 103 attacks. They’ve also accumulated an xG of just 3.33.
The Tricolours have been less the proactive when out of possession too, recovering just 93 balls during their group stage matches. Only Scotland have completed fewer ball recoveries overall (91), with Romania largely content to remain in their defensive shape and launch counterattacks from within their defensive third.
As for the Netherlands, they’ve averaged 53% possession per 90 in Germany, but have often struggled to convince in the attacking third. So far, 12 nations have initiated more than their tally of 134 attacks, while their cumulative xG of 3.49 suggests that they’ve been unable to create a succession of high quality chances against their opponents. They were sluggish for extended periods of the group stage, while they only generated an xG of 0.41 during a 0-0 stalemate against France.
Although I expect Ronald Koeman’s side to dominate possession at the Allianz Arena, they may find it difficult to break down their compact and well organised opponents. Patience will therefore be the order of the day for the Netherlands, but the quality of players like Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons should create just enough to push their country over the line.
My Prediction: Romania 0 – 2 Netherlands⚽
💯 Romania vs Netherlands Betting Odds
Ireland’s best betting sites have published a huge selection of odds ahead of the clash between Romania and the Netherlands. These most popular betting markets here include the match winner or result, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored during the 90 minutes. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re currently being priced!
🏅 Romania vs Netherlands: Match Winner
Unsurprisingly, the Dutch are the favourites to defeat Romania in Munich. In fact, their pre-game odds of 1.44 imply a 69.44% probability of the Oranje prevailing in 90 minutes. You can back Romania at around 8.00 in the win market, so they have just a 12.5% chance of recording only their second ever victory against the Dutch. The draw is priced at 4.40, implying a 22.72% probability of the game ending tied after 90 minutes.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania to Win | 8.50 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.00 | 7.80 |
| Netherlands to Win | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.45 |
| Draw to Win | 4.33 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
⚽ Romania vs Netherlands: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in just four of Romania’s previous 10 matches (40%). Edward Iordănescu’s charges have kept five clean sheets during this sequence, while drawing three blanks in total. Both sides have found the net in a paltry three of the last 10 contests featuring the Netherlands (30%), with the Dutch keeping an impressive seven clean sheets and failing to score just once.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.15 | 2.15 |
| No | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.59 | 1.66 | 1.71 |
🥅 Romania vs Netherlands: Over/Under Goals Odds
The last 10 matches contested by Romania have produced 22 goals in total, at a rate of 2.2 per game. The Romanians have scored 14 times during this run at an average of 1.4 per 90 minutes. In the case of the Netherlands, their previous 10 games have yielded 31 goals at the much higher rate of 3.1 per 90. The Dutch have scored 23 of these goals too, at a healthy average of 2.3 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.95 |
✔️ Romania vs Netherlands Betting Tips
There’s no doubt that the Netherlands are prohibitively priced in the win market, so backing them to prevail outright will unlock only nominal returns. But what are the markets and lines that offer superior value here? Here are some key betting tips to help you get the most out of your bankroll!
- Tip 1: Back the Netherlands to Win with Under 2.5 Goals: Neither side has impressed offensively during Euro 2024, with Romania’s total xG of 3.33 among the lowest during the group stages. The Netherlands have also struggled to create high quality chances, although they did accumulate an xG of 1.5 during their thrilling 3-2 defeat to Austria. Romania are also expected to defend in a low and compact block at the Allianz Arena, so there’s value in backing the Dutch to win with under 2.5 goals during the 90 minutes at the enhanced price of 3.25 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Memphis Depay as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to use one of your available free bets here, you could consider backing Memphis Depay as an anytime goalscorer. Although the Atletico forward has scored just one goal from nine attempts at Euro 2024 so far, he was superb against Austria and looks to have rediscovered his best form. He attempted nine crosses against the Austrians, while he has completed seven dribbles and made five runs into the attacking third during the tournament. You can get on Depay in this market at a price of 2.47 with 20BET Sports.
- Tip 3: Back The Second Half to See the Most Goals: Not only will Romania sit back from the outset against the Dutch, but the Netherlands have started slowly in their previous two matches against Austria and France. Just one of their four tournament goals has come during the first 45 minutes too, so it may take them some time to break down their well organised opponents. The odds also imply a 60.24% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored here, so get on the second half to be the highest scoring at a price of 2.10 with Royalist Play Sports. .
1️⃣ Romania Update
The Romanians have lost just two of their previous 18 matches overall, since a 2-1 defeat to Slovenia on 17th November, 2022. This is an impressive run of form and highlights just how tough Romania are to beat, although the Tricolours have drawn eight of these matches and scored just 28 goals at a rate of 1.55 per 90 minutes. Offensively speaking, winger Dennis Man remains Romania’s go-to player, having already contributed two assists during three matches at Euro 2024. The Parma star has also completed five dribbles in total, while making an impressive 10 key passes (and two into the opposing penalty area). I expect him to start in Munich.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Slovakia 1 Romania 1 | 26.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E |
| Belgium 2 Romania 0 | 22.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E |
| Romania 3 Ukraine 0 | 17.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E |
| Romania 0 Liechtenstein 0 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Romania 0 Bulgaria 0 | 04.06.24 International Friendly |
Left back Nicusor Bancu will miss out against the Netherlands, having accumulated two bookings during the group stages. Right back Vasile Mogos and attacking player Deian Sorescu are the most likely replacements, but this could weaken the Romanians down their left-hand side. Ianis Hagi, Florinel Coman and Valentin Mihaila are all competing for a single place in the forward line alongside Man and striker Denis Dragus.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Nicusor Bancu | Suspended |
2️⃣ Netherlands Update
After their 2-1 win over Poland in their Euro 2024 opener, the Netherlands had lost just one of their previous eight matches in all competitions. However, they’re now winless in two after a difficult Group D campaign, having toiled during a 0-0 against France and slumped to 3-2 defeat against Austria that consigned them to third place. As I’ve touched on, however, Depay was superb against Das Team last time out, while his teammate Cody Gakpo has been a threat throughout Euro 2024. He has two tournament goals to his name so far, and the Liverpool forward has completed eight dribbles and made 14 runs into key playing areas.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Netherlands 2 Austria 3 | 25.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Netherlands 0 France 0 | 21.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Poland 1 Netherlands 2 | 16.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Netherlands 4 Iceland 0 | 10.06.24 International Friendly |
| Netherlands 4 Canada 0 | 06.06.24 International Friendly |
The Dutch will be at full strength against Romania, especially with in-demand Bologna striker Joshua Zirkzee back in training after a brief illness. However, Joey Veerman could miss out after being sacrificed 35 minutes into the 3-2 defeat against Austria. This switch could see Tijjani Reijnders drop into a deeper midfield role while Xavi Simons is restored to the starting 11. Jeremie Frimpong is also in contention to replace Donyell Malen.
👕 Romania vs Netherlands Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Romania 4-3-3 | Netherlands 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | F. Niță | B. Verbruggen | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | A. Ratiu | L. Geertruida | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Drăgușin | S. de Vrij | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Burcă | V. van Dijk | Centre Back |
| Left Back | D. Sorescu | N. Ake | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Marin | J. Schouten | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | R. Marin | T. Reijnders | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | N. Stanciu | X. Simons | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | D. Man | J. Frimpong | Wide Forward |
| Striker | D. Drăguș | M. Depay | Striker |
| Wide Forward | F. Coman | C. Gakpo | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
