Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 1st July 2024
PredictionPortugal to Win!
Bookmaker20BET Sports
Portugal to Win!
The best odds
20​BET Sports
Odds : 1.41
Bet €100 and win €141 if Portugal win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.40
Bet €100 and win €140 if Portugal win.
Odds : 1.40
Bet €100 and win €140 if Portugal win.

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Odds are susceptible to change!
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Despite Portugal’s shock 2-0 loss to Georgia in their final Group F match, coach Roberto Martinez will restore star players such as Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leão to his starting 11 for the round of 16 clash against Slovenia. Their opponents progressed to the UEFA European Championship knockout stages without winning a single match, as they ground out three attritional draws against Denmark, Serbia and England. They’ll certainly be tough to beat at the Waldstadion, while they also defeated the Portuguese in a friendly in the build-up to Euro 2024. But will Portugal’s quality tell in Frankfurt, and what have Ireland’s best betting sites had to say?

🏆 Portugal vs Slovenia Prediction

Despite their defeat to Georgia, Portugal largely impressed during the Euro 2024 group stages. This is especially true from an offensive perspective, with Portugal initiating the most attacks during the tournament so far (213) and accumulating a total xG of 5.62. Even against Georgia, they generated an xG of 2.04, although Martinez’s revamped side struggled significantly in defensive transition.

This should be less of an issue in Frankfurt, with Ruben Dias, João Cancelo, Vitinha and the excellent Nuno Mendes likely to return to the starting 11. Slovenia have also been a little less adventurous than Georgia in Germany, mounting just 86 attacks so far and accumulating a paltry xG of 2.56. Their tally of just 25 shots (8.33 per 90 minutes) is also the second-lowest of the tournament (only Scotland have fared worse according to this metric).

Portugal have averaged 64.3% possession per 90 too, compared to just 36.7% for their opponents. So, they’ll dominate the ball and territory at the Waldstadion, while Slovenia look to deploy the pace and power of striker Benjamin Šeško in transition. The RB Leipzig hitman has struggled in the Championship so far, attempting just five shots on goal and completing only two dribbles.

However, Šeško remains an outstanding and perennial threat, especially against what’s likely to be a high Portuguese defensive line. Slovenia may also be able to exploit space in wide areas if Martinez retains his trusty 3-4-3 formation, potentially creating a closer game than some are imagining. Still, I expect Portugal to prevail here and book their place in the last eight.

My Prediction: Portugal 2 – 1 Slovenia⚽

💯 Portugal vs Slovenia Betting Odds

There are several ways in which you can wager on the Euro 2024 round-of-16 clash between Portugal and Slovenia. In addition to picking one team in the win market, for example, you can also wager on BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Frankfurt. Just remember, all markets are only applicable during the 90 minutes unless otherwise stated.

🏅 Portugal vs Slovenia: Match Winner

Portugal are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Slovenia in Frankfurt. At the time of writing, they can be backed to win at around 1.40, implying a 71.42% probability of this outcoming occurring. If you want to back Slovenia to beat Portugal for the second time in 2024, you can get on them at 8.60. This suggest there’s an 11.62% of chance of Matjaž Kek’s men emerging victorious. The draw is priced at 4.75, implying a 21.05% probability of the match being tied after 90 minutes.

Portugal to Win1.401.401.391.401.41
Slovenia to Win9.
Draw to Win4.404.755.254.754.70

⚽ Portugal vs Slovenia: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in four of Portugal’s previous 10 matches (40%), with Martinez’s men keeping four clean sheets and failing to score twice (including the 2-0 loss against Georgia last time out). Conversely, both sides have found the net in seven of Slovenia’s last 10 game. They’ve scored in nine of these matches and drawn just a single blank (against England in their final Group C encounter).


🥅 Portugal vs Slovenia: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches contested by Portugal also yielded a total of 33 goals, at a rate of 3.3 per game. The Portuguese scored 22 of these goals at an average of 2.2 per 90 minutes. As for Slovenia, their previous 10 matches have produced 22 goals at the much lower rate of 2.2 per 90. They’ve scored 13 times during this sequence, while conceding just nine at an average of 0.9 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.912.001.972.002.02
Under 2.5 Goals1.801.811.781.811.84

✔️ Portugal vs Slovenia Betting Tips

Portugal are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Slovenia at the Waldstadion, so you may not find a great deal of value in the win market. But which alternative lines and markets offer superior value, and how can you create enhanced odds through combination wagering? Here are some betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The pre-game odds imply just a 42.55% probability of both teams scoring here. However, prior to the 0-0 draw against England that secured Slovenia’s place in the knockout stages, the team had scored in 14 successive matches since June 2023. They may be able to exploit Portugal’s high and narrow defensive line with their counterattacking 4-4-2 shape as well, while I expect Benjamin Šeško to fire at some point during the tournament. So, get on both teams to score in Frankfurt at a price of 2.37 with 20BET Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back Bruno Fernandes as an Anytime Goalscorer: Fernandes looked sharp during his two group stage appearances for Portugal, finding the net against Turkey and playing 11 passes into the attacking third. He has also made seven key passes in just 180 minutes of action. I expect him to play a little deeper against Slovenia to help dictate the tempo of the game, and this will afford Fernandes more space and the opportunity to arrive unmarked in the opposing box. So, get on him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.90 with RoyalistPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Portugal to Win with Over 2.5 Goals: Although the Portuguese are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Slovenia, the bookies are split on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. In fact, the odds imply just a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Frankfurt, but this has much to do with the presumption that Slovenia won’t score here. I’m expecting Slovenia to find the net, however, while the quality of Portugal’s attack cannot be denied. So, get on the Portuguese to win with over 2.5 goals at the enhanced price of 2.25 with LegendPlay Sports. This is a good use of any free bets that you may have.

1️⃣ Portugal Update

As the sixth-best footballing nation in the world according to FIFA, it’s no surprise that Portugal are the favourites at the Waldstadion. However, they endured a tough build-up to the tournament, losing against both Croatia and Slovenia in international friendlies. Excellent goals by Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Max Elšnik enough to surprise Martinez’s men at the Stožice Stadium. Portugal have now lost three of their previous seven matches overall, so their fans will be glad to see their first choice 11 once again take to the field in Frankfurt. Left back Nuno Mendes may be particularly important here, having recovered 11 balls so far and completed 10 passes into the attacking third.

Last 5 Games
Georgia 2
Portugal 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 0
Portugal 3
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 2
Czech Republic 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 3
Ireland 0
International Friendly
Portugal 1
Croatia 2
International Friendly

Although it remains unclear whether Roberto Martinez will retain a back three or revert to a 4-3-3 against Slovenia, there’s no doubt that Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Rafael Leao will return to the starting 11. Vitinha may also replace Joao Palhinha in midfield, while Joao Cancelo, Nuno Mendes, Ruben Dias and veteran Pepe will return to the defensive line. Martinez has no new injury concerns to contend with.

2️⃣ Slovenia Update

Slovenia’s run of scoring in 14 successive matches was one of the longest of its type in Europe. Although England may have ended this scoring streak, it should be noted that Slovenia realistically only needed a point to qualify and were set up to contain in Cologne. I expect them to be a little more potent in transition against Portugal, especially as Slovenia are now unbeaten in nine matches since a 2-1 defeat in Denmark during their Euro 2024 qualification campaign. Remember, this run includes a 2-0 win over Portugal in Ljubljana, in a match where Vitinha, Cancelo and Cristiano Ronaldo all started.

Last 5 Games
England 0
Slovenia 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Serbia 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Denmark 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Bulgaria 1
International Friendly
Slovenia 2
Armenia 1
International Friendly

Despite naming the same starting 11 for all of their Euro 2024 matches so far, Slovenia coach Kek will be forced to replace Erik Janza after the left back collected his second booking of the tournament against England. Jure Balkovec is expected to replace Janza at full back, while the aforementioned Sesko and Andraz Sporar will continue to lead the line in a compact 4-4-2 formation.

Player Reason
Erik Janza Suspended

👕 Portugal vs Slovenia Potential Lineups

Pos. Portugal
Goalkeeper D. Costa J. Oblak Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back R. Dias Z. Karničnik Right Back
Centre Back Pepe V. Drkušić Centre Back
Left Centre Back N. Mendes J. Bijol Centre Back
Right Wing Back D. Dalot J. Balkovec Left Back
Central Midfielder Vitinha P. Stojanović Right Midfielder
Central Midfielder B. Fernandes A. Gnezda Čerin Central Midfielder
Left Wing Back João Cancelo T. M. Elšnik Central Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Silva J. Mlakar Left Midfielder
Striker C. Ronaldo A. Šporar Striker
Wide Forward R. Leão B. Šeško Striker

Portugal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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