Portugal vs France Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

Portugal -v-France-prediction Portugal -v-France-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 5th July 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Bookmaker20BET Sports
Back the Draw!
The best odds
20​BET Sports
Odds : 3.10
Bet €100 and win €310 if the match is drawn.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.07
Bet €100 and win €307 if the match is drawn.
Odds : 3.07
Bet €100 and win €307 if the match is drawn.

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Odds are susceptible to change!
Portugal-vs-France-logo Portugal-vs-France-logo

A repeat of the 2016 UEFA European Championship final, this last-eight match will pit Portugal against France at the Volksparkstadion sees two of this year’s tournament favourites go head-to-head. However, both teams were unconvincing in the round of 16, with the Portuguese requiring a penalty shootout to eliminate Slovenia after a fascinating 0-0 draw. As for Les Bleus, they needed an 85th-minute own goal to defeat an underwhelming Belgian side in Düsseldorf. This could be a tense and tight encounter in Hamburg, but which team will prevail, and what do Ireland’s best betting sites have to say?

🏆 Portugal vs France Prediction

Portugal have had no issues initiating attacks in Germany, mounting a total of 306 in four matches so far (more than any other nation). Roberto Martinez’s side have also accumulated an impressive xG of 8.1 during these games, although they’ve underperformed this by 3.1 goals and struggled to make the most of their chances. Cristiano Ronaldo has been particularly wasteful, missing an extra-time penalty against Slovenia and failing to score despite having 20 attempts on goal.

France have experienced similar issues at Euro 2024. Despite generating a cumulative xG of 6.97 in Germany, they’ve found the net just three times, including two own goals and a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland. Didier Deschamps’ team certainly struggled to break down the compact defensive blocks of Belgium and the Netherlands, and they’ve only struck 16 attempts on target during the entire competition.

Although the Portuguese have been a little more proactive out of possession and recovered more balls (176 vs 159), they also looked vulnerable in defensive transition against Georgia and Slovenia. Conversely, Les Bleus have only conceded once in their previous six games overall. A tournament xG value of just 2.71 highlights their ability to successfully stifle the opposition too, and I don’t expect them to give up too many chances in Hamburg.

Still, Portugal retain a potent goal threat and abundance of attacking quality, despite not scoring in either of their last two games. France will also look to exploit Portugal’s high defensive line with the pace of Ousmane Dembele and Mbappe, and I can see both teams scoring during normal time. The game could well be tied after 90 minutes, although France will fancy their chances of edging the tie in extra-time.

My Prediction: Portugal 1 – 1 France (France to win 2-1 after extra-time)⚽

💯 Portugal vs France Betting Odds

France and Portugal are ranked as the second and sixth best footballing nations in the world, so the win market is competitively priced here. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during normal time in Hamburg, but how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Portugal vs France: Match Winner

France are the pre-game favourites to defeat Portugal at the Volksparkstadion, with their odds of 2.38 implying a 42.01% probability of a win for Les Bleus. As for the Portuguese, they’re priced at around 3.35 to prevail, suggesting that they have just a 29.85% chance of recording only their second win in 15 attempts against France. The draw is the second most likely outcome and can be backed at 3.07, implying a 32.57% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.

Portugal to Win3.403.403.353.403.40
France to Win2.382.452.352.452.37
Draw to Win3.003.072.953.073.10

⚽ Portugal vs France: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in four of Portugal’s last 10 matches (40%). Roberto Martinez’s charges have kept four clean sheets during this sequence, while failing to score on three occasions (including their last two matches at Euro 2024). As for France, both competing sides have found the net in just three of their previous 10 games (30%), with Les Bleus keeping an impressive six clean sheets and drawing three blanks.


🥅 Portugal vs France: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches contested by Portugal have also yielded 31 goals, at a rate of 3.1 per game. The Portuguese have struck 20 times during this run at an average of 2.0 per 90 minutes, although they’ve now failed to score in 244 minutes of tournament football at Euro 2024. Although France’s previous 10 matches have produced 32 goals at a rate of 3.2 per 90, this sequence included a 14-0 win over Gibraltar during qualification. The last five fixtures featuring Les Bleus have seen just four goals scored in total.

Over 2.5 Goals2.382.502.412.502.50
Under 2.5 Goals1.531.531.531.531.56

✔️ Portugal vs France Betting Tips

This is a tough match to call, especially given the stage of the competition and the amount that’s at stake. The good news is that there are plenty of betting lines and markets that offer value here, while you can access enhanced odds through strategic combination wagering in some instances. Here are some tips to help you make the most of your bankroll!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The odds imply a 58.47% probability of both teams not scoring in Hamburg, with this largely based on France’s run of conceding just one goal in six matches. However, despite drawing blanks against Georgia and Slovenia, Portugal have found the net in 16 of their previous 19 matches since a 1-0 defeat to Morocco in the 2022 World Cup. France have also found the net in 19 of their last 22 games overall, while they have the pace and quality to threaten their opponents’ typically high defensive line. So, get on both teams to score during the 90 minutes at a price of 2.10 with LegendPlay Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw in 90 Minutes: The latest FIFA rankings suggest that there’s little to choose between Portugal and France, which is why the win market odds imply a 32.57% probability of the game being tied after 90 minutes. This outcome is considered more statistically likely than a Portugal win, despite the fact that draws only occur in around 25% of all football matches. Les Bleus have also drawn three of their last five matches, while Portugal were held by Slovenia over 120 minutes in the round of 16. You can get on the draw here at the competitive price of 3.10 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Kylian Mbappe as an Anytime Goalscorer: Between them, the legendary pair of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappe have struck 35 attempts on goal during Euro 2024. However, CR7 has drawn a blank so far, whereas Mbappe has scored just once from the spot against Poland during the group stages. However, the latter now has 13 major tournament goals to his name, with eight of these having being scored during knockout games. He’s certainly a man for the big occasion and will thrive on any space that’s left in behind Portugal’s defence, so get on Mbappe as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.65 with Royalist Play Sports. This may be an excellent use of any free bets that you have on your account!

1️⃣ Portugal Update

After failing to overcome Slovenia in 120 minutes of action at the Waldstadion (they required penalties to overcome the world’s 57th-ranked team), Portugal are now winless in two and have won just four of their previous eight matches overall. Even more alarmingly, they’ve only won one of their previous 14 matches against France since April 1975, with this sequence including 10 successive defeats between 1978 and 2015. If they are to get the better of Les Bleus this time around, PSG midfielder Vitinha will play a pivotal role. He has completed 196 of his 216 passes at the Euros so far (91%), while playing 32 passes into the attacking third and recovering a total of 11 balls.

Last 5 Games
Portugal 0
Slovenia 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
Georgia 2
Portugal 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 0
Portugal 3
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 2
Czech Republic 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 3
Ireland 0
International Friendly

Surprisingly, Portugal have no new injuries or suspensions to contend with after 120 gruelling and nerve-shredding minutes against Slovenia. But will Martinez look the freshen up his starting 11 at the Volksparkstadion? Well, 41-year-old centre back Pepe looked out on his feet towards the end of the match against Slovenia, and may be afforded a rest given the relatively short turnaround in fixtures. Both Diogo Jota and Francisco Conceicao also impressed from the bench in the round of 16, but Martinez may choose to retain the pair as impact players.

2️⃣ France Update

Although France have struggled to score from open play at Euro 2024, they’ve managed to accumulate an xG of 6.97 while remaining defensively solid. They’re certainly an incredibly well balanced and difficult team to beat, with Les Bleus having lost only two of their previous 18 matches in all competitions since the 2022 FIFA World Cup final. Interestingly, both of these defeats were inflicted by Germany in international friendlies, and Argentina remain the only team to beat France in 16 competitive fixtures. The aforementioned Mbappe has been key to France’s extended run of good form, and despite his lack of open play goals in Germany, he has still completed 22 dribbles and made 13 runs into the opposing penalty area.

Last 5 Games
France 1
Belgium 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
France 1
Poland 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 0
France 0
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Austria 0
France 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
France 0
Canada 0
International Friendly

There will be at least one alteration to the French team in Hamburg, with influential midfielder Adrien Rabiot suspended after collecting his second booking of the tournament against Belgium. Eduardo Camavinga and the precocious Warren Zaire-Emery are the obvious contenders to replace the free agent, although Deschamps could also restore Ousmane Dembele to the starting 11 and drop Antoine Griezmann back into an attacking midfield position. Randal Kolo Muani could also replace Marcus Thuram in attack after his lively cameo off the bench in the round of 16.

Adrien RabiotSuspended

👕 Portugal vs France Potential Lineups

GoalkeeperD. CostaM. MaignanGoalkeeper
Right Back J. Cancelo J. KoundeRight Back
Centre BackR. DiasD. UpamecanoCentre Back
Centre BackAntónio SilvaW. SalibaCentre Back
Left BackN. MendesT. HernandezLeft Back
MidfielderVitinhaN. KanteMidfielder
MidfielderJoão PalhinhaA. TchouaméniMidfielder
MidfielderB. FernandesA. GriezmannMidfielder
Wide ForwardB. SilvaO. DembeleWide Forward
StrikerC. RonaldoRandal Kolo MuaniStriker
Wide ForwardR. LeãoK. MbappeStriker

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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