Poland vs Netherlands Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 15:00 GMT 16th June 2024 |
| Prediction | Netherlands to Win! |
| Odds | @1.67 |
| Bookmaker | DirectionBet Sport |
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Poland and Netherlands will meet in Group D of the 2024 UEFA European Championship on June 16th at Hamburg’s Volksparkstadion. Poland are among the least fancied teams in the tournament, having finished third in their qualification group and only reached the playoffs through their Nations League performance. They subsequently needed penalties to defeat Wales in the final of Playoff Path A. Conversely, the Dutch qualified behind France in Group B, ultimately finishing a comfortable five points ahead of Greece. Unsurprisingly, ‘The Flying Dutchmen’ are the pre-game favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites, but which team do I think will prevail here?
🏆 Poland vs Netherlands Prediction
Poland will be appearing in their fifth consecutive European Championship finals after failing to qualify for the first 12 iterations of the tournament. Although they struggled to qualify this time around, they averaged 61.8% possession per 90 minutes across their eight Group E matches, while only Portugal, France and Switzerland attempted more shots on goal.
The issue was Poland’s lack of cutting edge, as just 49 of their goal attempts (30.4%) found the target. In total, they only scored 15 times during their 10 qualification games (including two play-off encounters), with record goalscorer Robert Lewandowski managing just three goals from 32 attempts in 750 minutes of action.
The Netherlands found the target with 35.6% of their 146 attempts on goal while scoring 17 times in eight matches at a rate of 2.12 per game. So, although they initiated fewer attacks than Poland during qualifying (332 vs 463), they were far more potent in the final third and showcased a better shot conversion rate.
Ultimately, Poland were unconvincing during qualifying and struggled to score goals, while they’ve only beaten the Netherlands three times in 19 attempts since their first meeting in May 1968. Holland are also unbeaten against the Poles in 12 outings since a 2-0 defeat in European Championship qualifying in 1979, and I’m tipping them to extend this run with another victory in Hamburg.
My Prediction: 🏆Poland 0 – 2 Netherlands⚽
💯 Poland vs Netherlands Match Odds
If you want to wager on the match between Poland and the Netherlands, there are ample betting markets for you to target. These include the match winner, both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the game. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re being priced!
🏅 Poland vs Netherlands: Match Winner
In the win market, you can back the Netherlands to triumph at around 1.66. This implies a 60.24% probability of a victory for Ronald Koeman’s men. If you expect Poland to spring a surprise at the Volksparkstadion, you can bet on them at an average price of 4.90, suggesting that they have a 20.40% chance of defeating Holland for the first time in 45 years. The draw is priced at 4.00, implying a 25.00% probability of this Group D match ending tied.
| Team to win |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland to Win | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.90 | 4.75 | TBA |
| Netherlands to Win | 1.67 | 1.66 | 1.65 | 1.66 | TBA |
| Draw to Win | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.00 | TBA |
⚽ Poland vs Netherlands: Both Teams To Score
Both teams found the net in five of Poland’s 10 qualifying matches, including their two playoff games. Michał Probierz’s side kept four clean sheets in total and drew two blanks, including the 0-0 draw with Wales in the Path A Playoff final. Both sides scored in just two of the Netherlands’ eight qualifiers. The Dutch kept an impressive five clean sheets and failed to score only once.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.88 | TBA |
| No | 1.91 | 1.84 | 1.77 | 1.84 | TBA |
🥅 Poland vs Netherlands: Over/Under Goals
Poland’s 10 qualification matches yielded 26 goals in total, at a rate of 2.60 per game. However, six of these came in the 5-1 victory over Estonia in the Path A Playoff semi-final. The eight games contested by Holland produced 24 goals at a rate of exactly 3.00 per 90 minutes. The Dutch scored 17 of these at an average of 2.12 per 90 and largely impressed in the attacking third.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.87 | TBA |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.91 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.85 | TBA |
✔️ Poland vs Netherlands Betting Tips
Whether you want to wager using real money or utilise your available free bets, it’s important to identify the best value lines and markets. You can also look to create value through combination betting, so here are some insights to help you get started.
- Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: The bookies are largely split when it comes to the BTTS market, although the odds imply a slightly higher probability of both teams not scoring in Hamburg. Not only did the Dutch keep five clean sheets in just eight qualification matches (62.5%), but they’ve also stopped the opposition from scoring in four of their previous five games. Although Polish skipper Robert Lewandowski has plundered 82 goals in his 148 international caps, there’s a paucity of firepower elsewhere in the squad, so get on both teams not to score at a price of 1.91 with DirectionBet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back the Netherlands to Win with Under 3.5 Goals: While Betinireland’s sportsbooks are also divided on the over/under market, the odds imply a 75.75% probability of under 3.5 goals being scored in Hamburg. Remember, Poland and the Netherlands contested a combined 18 Euro qualifiers, with these producing 50 goals at a rate of 2.77 per 90 minutes. The last five meetings between the two sides have also yielded 13 goals at an average of 2.6 per 90, so get on the Dutch to win with under 3.5 goals scored at the enhanced price of 2.33 with Sportaza Sports.
- Tip 3: Back the Netherlands to Win with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: The Netherland’s last defeated Poland 2-0 in a UEFA Nations League clash in September 2022, while three of their six qualifying victories were achieved by a margin of two goals or more. The Netherlands also boast considerably more firepower than their opponents, with Cody Gakpo, Calvin Stengs and Wout Weghorst all scoring three times during qualifying. So, consider backing the Netherlands to win with a nominal handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.82 with Royalist Play Sports.
1️⃣ Italy Euro Update
Poland eventually finished third in UEFA qualification Group E, a distant five points behind the Czech Republic and eventual winners Albania. The Poles lost on the road to both Albania and the Czechs, while they won just three of their eight matches in total. However, Poland did thrash Estonia 5-1 in the Path A Playoff semi-final, while they were defensively resolute when defeating Wales on penalties in Cardiff to book their place in Germany. Once again, the team was reliant on forward Robert Lewandowski during qualifying, with the Barcelona striker notching three goals and two assists during 750 minutes of action.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Wales 0 Poland 0 | 26.03.24 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Path A Playoff Final |
| Poland 5 Estonia 1 | 21.03.24 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Path A Playoff Semi-Final |
| Poland 2 Latvia 0 | 21.11.23 International Friendly |
| Poland 1 Czech Republic 1 | 17.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group E |
| Poland 1 Moldova 1 | 15.10.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group E |
Aston Villa full-back Matty Cash was absent from Poland’s preliminary 29-man squad for the Euros as he continues his rehabilitation from a calf injury. He’s Poland’s only injury absentee at the time of writing, although 14-cap midfielder Pawel Wszolek and young winger Dominik Marczuk have been omitted by manager Michał Probierz.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Matty Cash | Calf Injury |
2️⃣ Netherlands Euro Update
Holland lost two of their Euro 2024 qualifiers, suffering home and away defeats to eventual Group B winners France. Les Bleus thumped the Netherlands 4-0 at the Stade de France in March 2023, while they followed this up with a 2-1 win in Amsterdam the following October. Overall, Koeman’s team have lost four of their last 12 matches since Holland’s World Cup quarterfinal defeat to Argentina, including a 4-2 loss to Croatia in the last four of the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Interestingly, their friendly defeat to Germany last time out was their first against a team ranked outside of FIFA’s top 10 in 32 matches and since June 2021, when the Czech’s beat them 2-0 at Euro 2020.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Germany 2 Netherlands 1 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
| Netherlands 4 Scotland 0 | 22.03.24 International Friendly |
| Gibraltar 0 Netherlands 6 | 21.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group B |
| Netherlands 1 Republic of Ireland 0 | 18.11.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group B |
| Greece 0 Netherlands 1 | 16.10.23 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Group B |
Koeman has included Barcelona star Frenkie de Jong in his Euro 2024 squad despite the midfielder suffering from an ankle injury. Memphis Depay is also struggling with an unknown injury, but both players should be fit in time to play some part in the tournament. Interestingly, left-back Ian Maatsen has been omitted despite playing a key role in Borussia Dortmund’s journey to the Champions League final.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Frenkie de Jong | Ankle Injury |
| Memphis Depay | Unknown Injury |
👕 Poland vs Netherlands Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Poland 3-5-2 | Netherlands 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | W. Szczęsny | B. Verbruggen | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | J. Bednarek | D. Dumfries | Right Back |
| Centre Back | P. Dawidowicz | V. van Dijk | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | J. Kiwior | M. de Ligt | Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | P. Frankowski | Q. Hartman | Left Back |
| Central Midfielder | J. Piotrowski | J. Schouten | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | B. Slisz | T. Reijnders | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | P. Zieliński | T. Koopmeiners | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | N. Zalewski | C. Stengs | Wide Forward |
| Striker | K. Świderski | W. Weghorst | Striker |
| Striker | R. Lewandowski | C. Gakpo | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
