Poland vs Austria | Euro 2024 Prediction

poland-v-austria-prediction poland-v-austria-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 21st June 2024
PredictionAustria to Win!
Bookmaker20BET Sports
Austria to Win!
The best odds
20​BET Sports
Odds : 2.07
Bet €100 and win €207 if Austria win.
Bet €100 and win €205 if Austria win.
Odds : 2.00
Bet €100 and win €200 if Austria win.

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poland-v-austria-prediction poland-v-austria-prediction

Thursday will see Poland and Austria do battle in Group D of the 2024 UEFA European Championship, at the iconic Olympiastadion in Berlin. Both sides started their campaigns with respective defeats against the Netherlands and France, but a win for either here would afford them an excellent chance of reaching the knockout stages. The potential return of Robert Lewandowski (either from the start or the bench) could prove key for the Poles, while Ralf Rangnick’s charges will hope to build on an impressive and energetic display against the French. So, who will prevail here, and what odds are being offered by Ireland’s best betting sites?

🏆 Poland vs Austria Prediction

Austria certainly produced an all-action display against the French, completing an impressive 48 ball recoveries and attempting 18 tackles. They also launched 43 attacks and got into some excellent positions in the final third. However, their final ball often let them down, as they only completed 18.5% of their crosses and mustered just seven attempts on goal.

Their xG of 0.76 also reflected a lack of cutting edge, although they were up against a formidable and defensively well organised side in Düsseldorf. Overall, former Stuttgart and Manchester United head coach Rangnick has created an enterprising team that offers a significant attacking threat, with Austria having scored in each of their Euro 2024 qualifiers.

Poland were far more passive for much of their defeat against Holland, only averaging 35% possession and launching just 29 attacks too. They also recovered just 36 balls, as the Netherlands were able to sustain their own attacks and pen Michał Probierz’s team back in their own half. However, they did retain a threat on the break and were typically dangerous from set pieces, so they cannot be discounted at the Olympiastadion.

The potential return of top scorer Robert Lewandowski (who has struck 82 goals in his 150 international caps) would also boost the Poles, even though he lacks fitness after struggling with a thigh injury. Although I expect Poland to score in Berlin with or without their talisman, I think Austria’s attacking intent and enterprise will ultimately win the day.

My Prediction: 🏆Poland 1 – 2 Austria⚽

💯 Poland vs Austria Match Odds

Although this match pits the lowest-ranked teams in Group D in direct opposition, this is one of the more intriguing matches of the tournament given the high stakes involved. But what are the latest odds? Here’s my analysis of the most popular betting markets, including the match result, both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.

🏅 Poland vs Austria: Match Winner

Just three places separate Austria and Poland in the latest FIFA rankings, but the former are the clear pre-game favourites to prevail in Berlin. In fact, you can back them to win at odds of around 2.00, implying a 50% probability of a victory for Rangnick’s side. Poland are priced at an average of 3.80, so there’s a 26.31% chance of them defeating Austria and potentially eliminating them from the competition. The draw can be backed at 3.50, implying a 28.57% probability of the match ending tied.

Team to Win
Poland to Win3.753.803.703.803.80
Austria to Win2.
Draw to Win3.503.503.403.503.55

⚽ Poland vs Austria: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Prior to their 1-0 defeat against France on Monday, Austria had scored in 17 consecutive matches. Both competing teams also found the net in 10 of these games (59), with ‘Das Team’ keeping an impressive seven clean sheets. Both sides have scored in six of Poland’s previous 10 matches (60%), with this sequence including three clean sheets for the Poles. They also failed to score twice, against Albania and then Wales in their Path A playoff final.


🥅 Poland vs Austria: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The previous 10 matches contested by Poland also produced a total of 26 goals, at an average of 2.6 per game. The Poles scored 17 of these goals at a rate of 1.7 per 90 minutes. Austria’s last 10 matches have yielded 29 goals at an average of 2.9 per 90, while Rangnick’s men have scored 21 times during this sequence at a rate of 2.1 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.851.951.871.951.91
Under 2.5 Goals1.851.851.871.851.93

✔️ Poland vs Austria - Betting Tips

There are several markets that may be tempting here, although this remains an incredibly difficult match to call. So, it’s important to identify the best value markets ahead of the match, or find ways of creating value through combination wagers. Here are some betting tips and insights to consider.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The bookies are relatively split when it comes to the under on total goals scored, with the odds implying a 51.28% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Berlin. However, the previous 20 matches contested by Poland and Austria have produced 55 goals in total, at a rate of 2.75 per 90 minutes. Poland have also played Austria 11 times during their history, with these fixtures yielding 40 goals at a rate of 3.63 per game. So, get on over 2.5 goals being scored here at the competitive price of 1.95 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Austria to Win and Both Teams to Score: The odds imply a 50% probability of a win for Austria, who have only lost two of their previous 17 matches overall. They’ve also defeated Italy and Germany during this run. Remember, Das Team had also scored in 17 consecutive matches prior to their loss against France, while Poland have found the net in 14 of their last 16 matches since being beaten by Argentina in the 2022 World Cup. So, consider building a combination bet that backs Austria to win and both teams to score, at the enhanced price of 3.80 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Christoph Baumgartner as an Anytime Goalscorer: RB Leipzig star Christoph Baumgartner remains Austria’s key attacking outlet, having scored in five successive matches prior to the defeat against France. He also contributed two assists during this superb run of form. Against the French, he completed four dribbles in total and made three runs into key playing areas, with much of Austria’s best attacking play going through the talented 24-year-old. He should see even more of the ball against Poland, so back him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 3.20 with Royalist Play Sports. This is an excellent use of any free bets that you have.

1️⃣ Italy Update

Poland’s preparation for the Euro 2024 finals was far from ideal, as they finished third in their qualification group and had to progress through Playoff Path A. They’ve also won just five of their previous 10 matches (including the defeat against the Netherlands), failing to beat Albania, Moldova, Wales and the Czech Republic during this sequence. Poland also looked somewhat toothless against the Dutch, so Probierz may be tempted to rush Lewandowski back into his starting 11 after injury. After all, he has struck 82 goals in 150 games for his country, and contributed three goals and two assists during the course of qualifying.

Last 5 Games
Poland 1
Netherlands 2
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Poland 2
Turkey 1
International Friendly
Poland 3
Ukraine 1
International Friendly
Wales 0
Poland 0
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Path A Playoff Final
Poland 5
Estonia 1
UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Path A Playoff Semi-Final

Lewandowski has resumed training after missing Poland’s Group D opener with a thigh strain, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be fit enough to start in Berlin. Fellow attacker Karol Swiderski has recovered from the knock that forced him out of the starting 11 against the Netherlands, and he may well replace Kacper Urbanski in the Polish team.

Player Reason
Robert Lewandowski Thigh Injury

2️⃣ Austria Update

In addition to ending Austria’s run of scoring in 17 successive matches, France were also the previous team to keep a clean sheet against Das Team (in a Nations League match on September 22nd, 2022). Other than Les Bleus, Denmark are the last team to keep Austria out, as they earned a 1-0 win in World Cup qualifying way back in October 2021. The loss to France was only Austria’s second defeat in 17 outings too, during which time Rangnick’s charges have defeated Germany and Italy while also earning a credible 1-1 draw in Belgium. In addition to Baumgartner, Marcel Sabitzer remains an influential player for Austria, with the midfielder contributing four goals and two assists in just 370 minutes of Euro 2024 qualifying action.

Last 5 Games
Austria 0
France 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Switzerland 1
Austria 1
International Friendly
Austria 2
Serbia 1
International Friendly
Austria 6
Turkey 1
International Friendly
Slovakia 0
Austria 2
International Friendly

Although Austria were unable to avoid defeat against France, they at least emerged unscathed from an injury perspective. As a result, Rangnick is unlikely to tinker with his side too much, although he may be tempted to restore Marko Arnautovic to his starting 11 in place of SC Freiburg striker Michael Gregoritsch (who toiled in Austria’s Group D opener).

Player Reason

👕 Poland vs Austria Potential Lineups

Pos. Poland
Goalkeeper W. Szczęsny P. Pentz Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back J. Bednarek S. Posch Right Back
Centre Back B. Salaman K. Danso Centre Back
Left Centre Back J. Kiwior M. Wöber Centre Back
Right Wing Back P. Frankowski P. Mwene Left Back
Central Midfielder S. Szymański N. Seiwald Midfielder
Central Midfielder T. Romanczuk F. Grillitsch Midfielder
Central Midfielder P. Zieliński M. Sabitzer Midfielder
Left Wing Back N. Zalewski K. Laimer Wide Forward
Striker K. Świderski M. Arnautovic Striker
Striker R. Lewandowski C. Baumgartner Wide Forward

Austria to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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