Netherlands vs Turkiye Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

netherlands-v-turkey-predictions netherlands-v-turkey-predictions
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 6th July 2024
PredictionNetherlands to win!
Odds@1.61
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
Netherlands to win!
The best odds
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Odds : 1.61
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netherlands-v-turkey-predictions netherlands-v-turkey-predictions

The fourth and final UEFA European Championship quarterfinal sees the Netherlands take on underdogs Turkiye at the Olympiastadion. Vincenzo Montella’s Turks are the lowest ranked team left in the tournament, although they were hugely impressive both in and out of possession during their round of 16 win over an in-form Austria team. As for the Dutch, they finally showcased their technical quality and firepower when defeating Romania in Munich last time out, after struggling during the group stages. But will their quality once again prevail in Berlin, or can Turkiye spring another surprise and reach their first Euros semi-final since 2008?

🏆 Netherlands vs Turkiye Prediction

Turkiye got their gameplan spot on against Austria, as they switched to a flexible 3-4-2-1 formation and dominated the central areas of the pitch. They also defended deep and allowed Austria to control possession, partially negating their outstanding press and highlighting Das Team’s lack of a creative playmaker. They’ve now won three of their four games at Euro 2024 too, while accumulating an xG of 6.35 during these matches.

The teenage pair of Arda Guler and Kenan Yıldız also starred against the Austrians. In fact, the 19-year-old Guler became just the third teenager to score and assist during the same edition of the Euros, following in the footsteps of Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2004. Between them, Guler and Yildiz have completed 32 dribbles in Germany, with their energy and adventure adding an exciting dimension to Turkey’s attack.

The bad news for Turkiye is that the Netherlands produced their best display of the tournament against Romania in the round of 16. They accumulated an xG of 2.75 and faced an xGa of just 0.28 during their dominant 3-0 victory, with the restoration of Denzel Dumfries at right back providing a constant attacking outlet. Tijjani Reijnders also thrived in a deeper midfield role, dictating the tempo throughout and completing 69 of his 72 attempted passes.

The Dutch certainly looked more balanced at the Allianz Arena, as Xavi Simons, Memphis Depay and the excellent Cody Gakpo rotated positions superbly. It should also be noted that Turkey have faced an xGa value of 8.13 during the tournament so far, with Montella’s team occasionally far too open in defensive transition. So, although I expect Turkey to score in Berlin, the Netherlands should have enough to progress during normal time.

My Prediction: Netherlands 2 - 1 Turkey⚽

💯 Netherlands vs Turkiye Prediction Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published a broad selection of odds ahead of the quarterfinal clash between the Netherlands and Turkiye. The most popular markets include the match winner, the over/under on total goals scored, and both teams to score (or not). Here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re being priced.

🏅 Netherlands vs Turkey Prediction: Match Winner

The Netherlands are the heavy favourites to defeat Turkiye at the Olympiastadion, with their pre-game odds of 1.60 implying a 62.50% probability of a victory for Ronald Koeman’s side. As for Turkey, they can be backed to prevail at around 5.50, suggesting that they have just an 18.18% chance of overcoming the Dutch for the fourth time in 10 attempts. The draw is priced at 4.00, implying a 25% probability of the match being tied after 90 minutes.

Team
Netherlands to Win1.601.611.591.611.58
Turkey to Win5.805.505.505.505.80
Draw to Win4.004.004.004.004.30

⚽ Netherlands vs Turkiye: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in just three of the Netherlands’ previous 10 matches (30%). ‘The Oranje’ have kept an impressive seven clean sheets during this sequence, while failing to score only once (against France during the group stage). Conversely, both sides have found the net in seven of Turkiye's last 10 matches, with Montella’s keeping just a single clean sheet. They’ve also drawn three blanks during this run.

Yes/No
Yes1.801.861.781.861.87
No1.911.951.891.951.94

🥅 Netherlands vs Turkey: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The last 10 matches contested by the Netherlands have produced a total of 33 goals, at a rate of 3.3 per game. The Dutch have contributed 27 of these goals at an average of 2.7 per 90 minutes, while conceding just six. The previous 10 encounters featuring Turkey have yielded 31 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.1 per 90, but the ‘Crescent-Stars’ have conceded 18 times during this sequence at an average of 1.8 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.801.811.771.811.78
Under 2.5 Goals1.912.001.992.002.08

✔️ Netherlands vs Turkiye - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager with your real money balance or any free bets that you’ve accumulated, there are certainly plenty of markets that offer value here. Here are some insights and tips to help you leverage these successfully!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The bookies are slightly split when it comes to totals betting, with the odds implying just a 56.17% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Berlin. However, the last 20 matches contested by both teams combined have produced 64 goals at a rate of 3.2 per 90 minutes, while Turkey have shipped 18 goals in their previous 10 games alone. The Netherlands also boast the tournament’s joint-top scorer in Cody Gakpo (who has scored three times from 10 attempts), so get on over 2.5 goals being scored here at a price of 1.81 with Sportaza Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back the Netherlands to Win and Both Teams to Score: Not only are the Netherlands the overwhelming favourites to beat Turkey and reach the last four, but the odds also imply a 55.55% probability of both teams scoring in Berlin. Remember, the Netherlands have scored in nine of their previous 10 matches, with only France preventing them from finding the net during this sequence. Turkiye have also found the net in seven of their last 10 games and accumulated an xG of 6.35 during the tournament. So, get on Holland to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.30 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Cody Gakpo as the First Goalscorer: Not only has Gakpo found the net three times during Euro 2024 so far, but he has also opened the scoring for the Netherlands in three matches. This includes the 3-0 victory over Romania in the round of 16, while he has undoubtedly been Holland’s most consistent attacker throughout the tournament. He has also made 13 runs into the opposing penalty area, highlighting his desire to score and impact the game. You can get on him as the first goalscorer against Turkey at the competitive price of 5.50 with RoyalistPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Netherlands Update

The Netherlands broke a two-game winless run with their impressive victory over Romania, while Ronald Koeman’s men have now lost just two of their previous 11 matches. They’ve won eight of these games too, with only Germany and Austria beating them in 2024 so far. The Dutch have also impressed defensively during this sequence, keeping eight clean sheets and conceding just six goals at an average of 0.54 per 90 minutes. It should therefore come as no surprise that Liverpool centre back Virgin van Dijk has starred during Euro 2024, recovering an impressive 23 balls and completing 19 of the 23 clearances he has attempted (82.60%).

Last 5 Games
Romania 0
Netherlands 3
02.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
Netherlands 2
Austria 3
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 0
France 0
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Poland 1
Netherlands 2
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 4
Iceland 0
10.06.24
International Friendly

Tijjani Reijnders starred in a deeper midfield role against Romania, with this allowing Koeman to deploy a quicker and more fluid front four. However, Steven Bergwijn was forced off at half time with a muscle complaint, so Donyell Malen is expected to take his place in Berin (he scored off the bench against the Tricolours). Denzel Dumfries should also keep his place at right back after an excellent performance.

Player Reason
Steven Bergwijn Muscle Injury

2️⃣ Turkiye Update

Turkiye’s disciplined and tactically flexible performance against Austria was superb, while it also marked a philosophical departure for Vincenzo Montella’s men at Euro 2024. However, it’s unclear whether they’ll retain the same approach and 3-4-2-1 formation against the Dutch, or switch to their more familiar back four and expansive playing style. Worryingly, they still faced an xGa value of 3.19 against Austria, while they also conceded a high number of chances against Georgia, Portugal and the Czech Republic during the group stage. They’ve now conceded 18 goals in their previous 10 matches, while only winning four times during this sequence. They’ll certainly need to excel at both ends of the pitch to have any chance against the Dutch.

Last 5 Games
Austria 1
Turkey 2
02.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
Czech Republic 1
Turkey 2
26.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 0
Portugal 3
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 3
Georgia 1
18.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Poland 2
Turkey 1
10.06.24
International Friendly

Both Hakan Calhanoglu and centre back Samet Akaydin are available again after suspension, and I expect both to be restored to Turkey’s starting 11 against the Dutch. However, Montella will have to do without midfield pair Orkun Kokcu and Ismail Yuksek against the Netherlands, after both players collected their second bookings of the tournament. Although Merih Demiral (who scored twice against Austria) is facing a potential UEFA sanction after his controversial goal celebrations, he’s more likely to receive a fine than a suspension.

Player Reason
Orkun Kokcu Suspended
Ismail Yuksek Suspended

👕 Netherlands vs Turkiye Potential Lineups

Pos. Netherlands
4-2-3-1
Turkey
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper B. Verbruggen M. Gunok Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dumfries S. Akaydin Right Centre Back
Centre Back S. de Vrij M. Demiral Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk A. Bardakci Left Centre Back
Left Back N. Ake M. Müldür Right Wing Back
Midfielder J. Schouten H. Calhanoglu Central Midfielder
Midfielder T. Reijnders O. Yokuşlu Central Midfielder
Midfielder X. Simons F. Kadıoğlu Left Wing Back
Wide Forward D. Malen A. Guler Attacking Midfielder
Striker M. Depay K. Yildiz Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward C. Gakpo B. A. Yilmaz Striker

Netherlands to win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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