Netherlands vs France | Euro 2024 Prediction

netherlands-v-france-prediction netherlands-v-france-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 21st June 2024
PredictionFrance to Win!
Bookmaker20BET Sports
France to Win!
The best odds
20​BET Sports
Odds : 2.32
Bet €100 and win €232 if France win.
Bet €100 and win €230 if France win.

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Odds : 2.28
Bet €100 and win €228 if France win.

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netherlands-v-france-prediction netherlands-v-france-prediction

Both the Netherlands and France commenced their 2024 UEFA European Championship campaigns with hard-earned wins over Poland and Austria respectively. The two Group D favourites will now meet at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig on June 21st, with the winner (if there is one) guaranteed a place in the round of 16. The big pre-game talking point is the potential absence of French talisman Kylian Mbappe, who broke his nose after a collision with Austrian powerhouse Kevin Danso on Monday. This will have a key impact on the attacking threat possessed by Les Bleus, but will it have a direct affect on the final outcome in Leipzig?

🏆 Netherlands vs France Prediction

The Netherlands impressed up until the final third in their match against Poland, as they averaged 65% possession and completed 90% of their passes. They also initiated 65 attacks and struck 20 attempts on goal, although their collective xG of just 1.58 suggests that they failed to make the most of their excellent approach play.

Just four of their 20 attempts (20%) found the target too, with Atletico Madrid forward Memphis Depay particularly wasteful in front of goal. Although France had less possession and fewer attempts against Ralf Rangnick’s tireless Austrian side, they were incredibly threatening in transition in the second half and accumulated an xG of 2.13 overall.

France were also impressive defensively in Düsseldorf, with Arsenal’s William Saliba typically composed and efficient. Bayern’s Dayot Upamecano also recovered five balls and completed six of his seven clearances. As a collective, France completed 48 ball recoveries (no side produced more during the first round of fixtures) and conceded an xG of just 0.76 during the 90 minutes.

Although the likely absence of Mbappe may make France a little less potent during attacking phases of the game, Les Bleus remain incredibly compact and well organised defensively. They’re also tournament hardened and highly experienced, while the Netherlands struggled to make the most of their possession and territory in their Group D opener. So, I’m tipping France to prevail in a low-scoring game at the Red Bull Arena and book their place in the knockout phase.

My Prediction: Netherlands 0 – 1 France⚽

💯 Netherlands vs France Match Odds

If you want to be wager on the match between the Netherland and France, you’ll be able to explore a huge selection of markets. These include the match winner, alongside both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Leipzig. Here’s my take on these markets and how they’re being priced by Ireland’s best betting sites.

🏅 Netherlands vs France: Match Winner

France are the narrow betting favourites to defeat the Netherlands at the Red Bull Arena. Their average odds of 2.30 imply a 43.47% probability of a victory for Les Bleus, who have won 16 of their previous 30 matches against the Netherlands. The ‘Oranje’ can be backed to triumph at around 3.20, suggesting that they have a 31.25% chance of beating France for the 12th time. The draw is priced at 3.33, implying a 30.03% probability of the game ending tied after 90 minutes.

Team to Win
Netherlands to Win3.
France to Win2.302.
Draw to Win3.303.333.303.333.45

⚽ Netherlands vs France: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have found the net in just four of the last 10 matches contested by the Netherlands. Ronald Koeman’s men have kept an impressive six clean sheets during this sequence, while they’ve scored each time they’ve taken to the field. Both sides have scored in five of France’s previous 10 encounters, with Les Bleus keeping four clean sheets (including one in each of their last three outings) and drawing a single blank against Germany.


🥅 Netherlands vs France: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The previous 10 matches contested by the Dutch have yielded 32 goals in total, at a rate of 3.2 per game. The Netherlands have scored 27 of these goals and conceded just five, at an average of just 0.5 per 90 minutes. As for France, their last 10 games have produced 40 goals at a rate of exactly 4.0 per 90. Les Blues have scored 31 goals at an average of 3.10 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.911.901.971.901.99
Under 2.5 Goals1.801.901.781.901.86

✔️ Netherlands vs France - Betting Tips

While the win market offers inherent value here, picking a winner may prove challenging given the respective quality of both teams. However, there are plenty of markets and betting lines that you can wager on, including a raft of competitively priced team and player props. Here are some betting tips and insights to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back France to Win: Not only do France have a distinct overall advantage in their historic head-to-head with the Netherlands, but they’ve managed to win seven of their last eight matches against the Oranje. This run includes two victories in UEFA qualification Group B, with Les Bleus prevailing 4-0 at home and 2-1 in Amsterdam on October 13th, 2023. Germany remain the only team to defeat France since Argentina in the 2022 World Cup final too, while Les Bleus have lost just one of 13 competitive matches since November 2022. So, there’s value in backing France to win outright at a price of 2.32 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back France to Win and Both Teams Not to Score: If you want to maximise any of your available free bets, you should consider combination betting. In this case, backing France to win and both teams not to score offers particular value, especially when you consider Les Blues’ defensive strength and Holland’s wasteful finishing against Poland. An xG of 1.58 in this match suggests that the Netherlands also struggled to create high quality chances, with the Dutch missing Frenkie de Jong in midfield. You can get on this market at the enhanced price of 3.75 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Antoine Griezmann to Produce Over 0.5 Assists: Antoine Griezmann produced an excellent all-round performance against Austria, completing 24 of his 31 passes, three passes into the attacking penalty area and two of his six attempted crosses. He also took six free kicks and remains Les Bleus go-to man on set-pieces, making him their key creative outlet in the anticipated absence of Kylian Mbappe. He could well make the difference in what’s likely to be a tight game, so get on Griezmann to produce over 0.5 assists at the competitive price of 5.50 with RoyalistPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Netherlands Update

The Netherlands have won eight of their previous 10 matches overall, scoring 27 goals and conceding just five during this sequence. However, France and Germany are the only top-20 ranked nations that Holland have faced during this run, with both of these matches ending in defeat. In fact, the Dutch haven’t beaten a top 20 country since a Nations League victory over Belgium in Amsterdam on September 25th, 2023. This will be a concern for manager Ronald Koeman, especially given the profligacy of his attack against Poland (and Memphis Depay in particular). However, Cody Gakpo was a constant threat against the Poles, scoring the Netherlands’ opener while completing four dribbles and five key passes during the 90 minutes.

Last 5 Games
Poland 1
Netherlands 2
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 4
Iceland 0
International Friendly
Netherlands 4
Canada 0
International Friendly
Germany 2
Netherlands 1
International Friendly
Netherlands 4
Scotland 0
International Friendly

The Netherlands reported no new injury concerns after their Group D opener against Poland. What’s more, Ajax striker Brian Brobbey is now fit again after struggling with a hamstring strain, and will provide Koeman with an additional option from the bench. Midfielder Joey Veerman will have to tread carefully, however, as a booking against the French will rule him out of the final group stage game.

Player Reason

2️⃣ France Update

France have contested 15 matches since losing the 2022 FIFA World Cup final to Argentina, incurring just two losses during this sequence. Interestingly, both of these losses were inflicted by Germany, one in Dortmund last September and another at the Parc Olympique Lyonnais on March 23rd. The good news for the French is that they tend to save their best for tournament and competitive football, losing just one of their last 13 games of this type since November 2022. In addition to Griezmann, Adrien Rabiot will be key for France in the middle of the park, having completed 90% of his 39 passes against the Austrians and made three key passes in total.

Last 5 Games
Austria 0
France 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
France 0
Canada 0
International Friendly
France 3
Luxembourg 0
International Friendly
France 3
Chile 2
International Friendly
France 0
Germany 2
International Friendly

Winger Kingsley Coman is likely to miss out with an adductor injury, with his absence compounded by the potential loss of Kylian Mbappe with a broken nose. If Mbappe does miss out, France’s top international goalscorer Olivier Giroud is likely to come in, with either Marcus Thuram or Ousmane Dembele shifting to the left. Midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni will be assessed ahead of a potential return from a foot injury, but N’Golo Kante is likely to keep his place regardless after a MOTM display against Austria.

Player Reason
Kingsley Coman Adductor Injury
Aurélien Tchouaméni Foot Injury
Kylian Mbappe Broken Nose

👕 Netherlands vs France Potential Lineups

Pos. Netherlands
Goalkeeper B. Verbruggen M. Maignan Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dumfries J. Koundé Right Back
Centre Back S. de Vrij W. Saliba Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk D. Upamecano Centre Back
Left Back N. Ake T. Hernández Left Back
Midfielder J. Schouten A. Rabiot Midfielder
Midfielder J. Veerman N. Kante Midfielder
Midfielder T. Reijnders A. Griezmann Midfielder
Wide Forward X. Simons O. Dembele Wide Forward
Striker M. Depay O. Giroud Striker
Wide Forward C. Gakpo M. Thuram Wide Forward

France to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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