Netherlands vs England Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

netherlands-v-england-euro-2024 netherlands-v-england-euro-2024
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 10th July 2024
PredictionNetherlands to win!
Odds@3.31
Bookmaker20BET Sports
Netherlands to win!
The best odds
1.
20​BET Sports
Odds : 3.31
Bet €100 and win €331 if the Netherlands win.
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Sportaza
Odds : 3.20
Bet €100 and win €320 if the Netherlands win.
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€100

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3.
Bet €100 and win €320 if the Netherlands win.
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netherlands-v-england-euro-2024 netherlands-v-england-euro-2024

England have struggled for form and fluency during Euro 2024, but a clinical penalty shootout win over Switzerland saw them advance to the last four. They’ll now meet the Netherlands in Dortmund on Wednesday, July 10th, as they look to reach the UEFA European Championship final for the second successive iteration of the tournament. Ronald Koeman’s Dutch side have also failed to perform consistently so far, losing to Austria during the group stage and having to come from behind to defeat a plucky Turkey team in the last eight. This is sure to be another nerve-jangling night for both sets of supporters, but which side will ultimately prevail at the Westfalenstadion?

🏆 Netherlands vs England Prediction

England’s primary issue at the Euros has been their lack of attacking fluency. In fact, although they’ve averaged 58.6% possession per 90 minutes so far in Germany and initiated 268 attacks, they’ve only managed to strike 57 attempts at goal. This equates to an average of just 11.4 shots per game, while only 15 of these attempts have hit the target (the fewest of any nation to at least reach the quarterfinals).

Interestingly, the Netherlands have launched 252 attacks and averaged 55.2% possession per 90 at Euro 2024. However, they’ve managed 74 shots on goal and hit the target 20 times, while their tournament xG of 7.67 is significantly higher than their opponents (4.30). So, they’ve been far more creative and threatening in the attacking third, with Cody Gakpo particularly impressive on the left-hand side.

Given England’s lack of consistent attacking threat, it should come as no surprise that they’ve conceded a higher volume of good-quality chances than they’ve created. In fact, they’ve faced a cumulative xGa value of 4.61 during the tournament while conceding five big chances to Switzerland alone in the last eight.

This is something that cannot be sustained as the quality of the opposition improves, with the Netherlands ranked as the seventh best footballing nation by FIFA and just two places behind England. The Dutch also appear to have balanced their attack well during the knockout stages, with Xavi Simons providing a superb creative outlet and laying on two assists so far. So, although England will once again prove durable and tough to beat at the Westfalenstadion, I think their lack of consistency will finally catch up with them against formidable opposition.

My Prediction: Netherlands 2 - 1 England⚽

💯 Netherlands vs England Prediction Betting Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have priced up a diverse selection of Netherlands vs England markets, including the match winner. You can also wager on both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, while also building combination bets where applicable. Here’s my analysis of the most popular markets and how they’re currently being priced!

🏅 Netherlands vs England Prediction: Match Winner

Despite their lack of consistent form so far, England are the favourites in the win market and priced at 2.60 to defeat the Netherlands in Dortmund. This implies a 38.46% probability of a victory for Gareth Southgate’s men. As for the Oranje, they can be backed to prevail at around 3.20, suggesting that they have a 31.25% chance of beating the Three Lions for the fourth time in five attempts. The draw is priced at 2.83, implying a 35.33% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.

Team
Netherlands to Win3.003.203.203.203.31
England to Win2.702.602.552.602.60
Draw to Win2.882.832.802.832.90

⚽ Netherlands vs England: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in just four of the Netherlands’ previous 10 matches (40%). Ronald Koeman’s charges have kept six clean sheets during this sequence, while failing to score just once (they held France to a 0-0 draw during the group stage). Conversely, both sides have found the net in five of England’s last 10 fixtures (50%), with Southgate’s men keeping three clean sheets and drawing three blanks in total.

Yes/No
Yes2.052.102.072.102.11
No1.701.711.641.711.74

🥅 Netherlands vs England: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches contested by the Dutch have yielded 35 goals in total, at a rate of 3.5 per game. Holland have dominated the scoring during these fixtures too, finding the net 28 times at an average of 2.8 per 90 minutes. England’s previous 10 encounters have produced just 18 goals at the much lower rate of 1.8 per 90, with the Three Lions scoring only 11 times during this run at an average of 1.1 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.502.662.572.662.65
Under 2.5 Goals1.501.481.471.481.52

✔️ Netherlands vs England Betting Tips

Whether you intend to wager on this match using your real money bankroll or your available free bets, you’ll have to identify the best value markets before committing your hard-earned cash. Here’s my expert betting tips to help you achieve this objective!

  • Tip 1: Back the Netherlands or the Draw with a Double Chance Bet: The odds only imply a 31.25% probability of a win for the Netherlands, but they’ve been in slightly better form during the tournament so far. They’ve also lost just one of their nine matches against the Three Lions since June 1996, when they were defeated during the group stage of Euro 1996. Four of these fixtures have been drawn too, while there’s a 35.33% probability of this semi-final clash ending tied after 90 minutes. So, consider placing a ‘Double Chance’ bet that backs the Netherlands to win or the draw after 90 minutes, at the competitive price of 1.47 with Sportaza Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Teams to Score: The pre-game odds also imply a 58.82% probability of both teams not scoring in Dortmund. However, England have scored in all but one of their five Euro 2024 matches despite their inconsistent form in front of goal, while the Dutch have scored in 17 of their previous 18 games since a 4-0 defeat to France in March 2023. Both sides have also found the net in five of the last six head-to-head matches between these two countries in all competitions. So, get on both teams to score at the Westfalenstadion at a price of 2.11 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Cody Gakpo as an Anytime Goalscorer: Cody Gakpo has excelled for the Dutch so far, scoring three goals in five matches and from a total of just 12 attempts on goal. No player has scored more at Euro 2024, while the Liverpool forward has also completed 16 dribbles and made the same number of runs into the opponent’s penalty area. Although he will be up against the excellent Kyle Walker in the semi-final, he continually threatens inside and will exploit any gaps in the English backline. You can get on Gakpo as an anytime goalscorer at the highly competitive price of 4.20 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Netherlands Update

Although the Netherlands had to come from behind to defeat Turkey in the last eight, they showcased tremendous resilience and have now lost just two of their previous 12 matches in all competitions. Impressively, they’ve won nine of these games too, while they were incredibly disciplined when holding France to a goalless draw during Group D. The Dutch have looked a little more fluent during their previous two games too, with Tijjani Reijnders providing composure and control in a deeper midfield position. To this end, he has completed 207 of his 220 passes at Euro 2024 (93%), while making 25 passes into the attacking third.

Last 5 Games
Netherlands 2
Turkey 1
06.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 - Quarterfinals
Romania 0
Netherlands 3
02.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
Netherlands 2
Austria 3
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 0
France 0
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Poland 1
Netherlands 2
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D

Although forward Steven Bergwijn was fit to start against Turkey last time out, he was withdrawn at half-time once again in Berlin. So, Ronald Koeman may opt for a change on the right of the Netherlands’ attack, with either Jeremie Frimpong or Donyell Malen (who scored twice in the round of 16 against Romania) competing for a place in the starting 11. Despite playing the entire second 45 minutes against the Crescent Stars, Wout Weghorst is likely to start on the bench once again here.

2️⃣ England Update

Worryingly, England have only won three of their previous 10 matches during normal time, while the Three Lions have scored just 11 times during this sequence and conceded on eight occasions. They’ve found the net just four times in five outings at the Euros, with Harry Kane (twice), Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka the only players to score for the Three Lions. Collectively, the team has made just 74 runs into the attacking third during the tournament too, with this by far the fewest among the four teams that have reached the semi-finals (Spain lead the way with 143). This reinforces England’s lack of dynamism in attack and their failure to disrupt opposing defences with forward running.

Last 5 Games
England 1
Switzerland 1
06.07.24
UEFA Euro 2024 - Quarterfinals
England 2
Slovakia 1
30.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Round of 16
England 0
Slovenia 0
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Denmark 1
England 1
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Serbia 0
England 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C

England will welcome back Marc Guehi from suspension against the Dutch, and he’s likely to replace Ezri Konsa at centre back. Luke Shaw made his return from injury as a late substitute against the Swiss, and I expect him to start at the expense of Kieran Trippier in Dortmund. The Three Lions may also revert to their more familiar back four against the Netherlands. Harry Kane suffered cramp in the quarterfinal and is a slight doubt here, but I expect him to be fit and to lead the line for the Three Lions once again.

Player Reason
Harry Kane Muscle Cramp

👕 Netherlands vs England Potential Lineups

Pos. Netherlands
4-2-3-1
England
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper B. Verbruggen J. Pickford Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dumfries K. Walker Right Back
Centre Back S. de Vrij J. Stones Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk M. Guehi Centre Back
Left Back N. Ake L. Shaw Left Back
Midfielder J. Schouten K. Mainoo Midfielder
Midfielder T. Reijnders D. Rice Midfielder
Midfielder X. Simons J. Bellingham Midfielder
Wide Forward D. Malen B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker M. Depay H. Kane Striker
Wide Forward C. Gakpo P. Foden Wide Forward

Netherlands to win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphries-author-profile Lewis-Humphries-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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