Netherlands vs Austria Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 25th June 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.25
BookmakerSportaza
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Odds : 3.25
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Netherlands-vs-Austria-logo Netherlands-vs-Austria-logo

After the Netherlands’ tentative 0-0 draw with France last week, Group D of the UEFA European Championship remains incredibly evenly poised. The Oranje now know that a point against Austria at the Olympiastadion will see them qualify in one of the top two places, while Ralf Rangnick’s enterprising Austrian team are already guaranteed to finish at least third in the group. The Dutch have won seven successive matches against ‘Das Team’ since May 1990, but Austria have impressed with their relentless pressing and high tempo attacking play at Euro 2024. But which side will win in Berlin, and can both book their place in the round of 16?

🏆 Netherlands vs Austria Prediction

While Rangnick may have seen his reputation slightly tarnished by his short tenure as manager of Manchester United, the so-called “Godfather of gegenpressing” has turned Austria into a formidable and indefatigable force at international level. Unsurprisingly, they’re one of the best pressing teams at Euro 2024, allowing just 8.7 opposition passes per defensive action on average and recovering a total of 88 balls so far (only Georgia have recovered more).

No team has made more than Austria’s 36 tackles too, and Poland certainly struggled to cope with Das Team’s intensity at the Olympiastadion last time out. This may also pose a problem for the Netherlands, who have been far more passive in their first two group games and sought to simply contain France in Leipzig last time out. This was borne out by their xG of just 0.41 against Les Bleus.

In total, the Netherlands have recovered just 60 balls at Euro 2024, with only Romania recovering fewer (57). This relative lack of tempo and aggression may make it challenging for the Dutch to retain comfortable possession against Austria in Berlin, while their opponents will look to deploy the pace and power of the excellent Christoph Baumgartner in attacking transition. The RB Leipzig star has now scored in six of his previous seven matches for Das Team.

Ultimately, both teams have averaged 53.5% possession per 90 at the Euros, while the Netherlands and Austria have initiated 91 and 90 attacks respectively. So, these sides are clearly evenly matched and should contest an open and entertaining game at the Olympiastadion, while a draw should enable both teams to qualify for the round of 16.

Format: My Prediction: Netherlands 2 – 2 Austria⚽

💯 Netherlands vs Austria Betting Odds

This is a fascinating match from a betting perspective, with the Netherlands’ superior individual quality offset by Austria’s collective excellence and relentless pressing. So, you’ll find value in the win market here, while backing both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Berline is also appealing. Here’s my analysis of the latest odds from Ireland’s best betting sites.

🏅 Netherlands vs Austria: Match Winner

The Netherlands are the favourites to defeat Austria in Berlin, with their average odds of 2.25 implying a 44.44% probability of a victory for Ronald Koeman’s side. As for Austria, they can be backed in the win market at around 3.50, suggesting that they have a 28.57% chance of beating the Dutch for the first time in eight attempts. The draw is the second most likely outcome from a statistical perspective, with a price of 3.10 implying a 32.25% probability of the match ending tied.

Team
Netherlands to Win2.252.302.202.302.23
Austria to Win3.503.253.603.253.68
Draw to Win3.103.253.053.253.20

⚽ Netherlands vs Austria: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in just three of the last 10 matches contested by the Netherlands. The Oranje have kept an impressive seven clean sheets during this sequence and failed to score only once (against France last time out). Conversely, both competing sides have found the net in five of Austria’s previous 10 games, with Rangnick’s men keeping four clean sheets. The 1-0 loss to Les Bleus saw them draw their sole blank during this run.

Yes/No
Yes1.701.661.591.661.69
No2.052.152.162.152.19

🥅 Netherlands vs Austria: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches contested by the Netherlands have also seen 29 goals scored at a rate of 2.90 per game. The Dutch have scored 24 of these goals at an average of 2.4 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Austria’s previous 10 encounters have seen the exact same number of goals scored. Das Team have scored 21 of these goals at the lower rate of 2.10 per 90, however, while conceding eight at an average of 0.8 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.801.871.881.871.89
Under 2.5 Goals1.911.931.871.931.96

✔️ Netherlands vs Austria Betting Tips

Although there’s value to be found in a broad selection of the Netherlands vs Austria betting markets, this match is also incredibly tough to call. So, I’ve provided some expert betting tips to help you make the most informed picks and create value through combination wagering where applicable!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: It’s interesting that the draw is the second most likely outcome at the Olympiastadion, with the odds implying a 32.25% probability of the match ending tied (just 25% of all football games end this way on average). This reflects the evenly matched nature of the Netherlands and Austria, with both teams averaging 53.5% possession per 90 at Euro 2024 and mounting a similar number of attacks. Remember, a draw should also be enough to see both teams qualify for the knockout stage, so consider backing this outcome at a price of 3.25 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Cody Gakpo as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to use one of your available free bets here, I’d recommend exploring the anytime goalscorer market. Cody Gakpo has looked particularly sharp in the tournament so far for the Dutch, scoring against the Poles and completing a total of seven dribbles. He has also made 12 runs into key attacking areas and five into the opponent’s box, and this could prove telling in what’s likely to be an open game. You can back Gakpo as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.80 with Royalist Play Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: Although the Netherlands adopted a conservative approach against France, they were lively and creative in their opening game against the Poles. Austria have also been enterprising throughout the tournament and created an xG of 1.97 against Poland in Berlin. The last 20 matches contested by these teams have yielded a combined total of 58 goals at a rate of 2.90 per 90 too. So, consider betting on over 2.5 goals being scored here at the competitive price of 1.89 with 20BET Sports.

1️⃣ Netherlands Update

The Dutch have now won seven of their previous 10 matches, scoring 24 goals, conceding five and keeping seven clean sheets during this sequence. However, four of these goals have been shipped in just three matches against France and Germany, who are the only opponents ranked inside the top 25 that the Netherlands have faced during this run. Austria are ranked 25th in the world by FIFA, so the Oranje will have to be at the best defensively at the Olympiastadion. Seasoned defender Virgil van Dijk will be key in this respect, having already recovered 10 balls and completed 14 of his attempted 15 clearances so far.

Last 5 Games
Netherlands 0
France 0
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Poland 1
Netherlands 2
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 4
Iceland 0
10.06.24
International Friendly
Netherlands 4
Canada 0
06.06.24
International Friendly
Germany 2
Netherlands 1
26.03.24
International Friendly

The Netherlands are at full strength following the return of Brian Brobbey from a hamstring injury. However, midfield pair Joey Veerman and Jerdy Schouten are one match away from suspension, so Koeman may be tempted to bring in Ryan Gravenberch or Georginio Wijnaldum (or both). Wout Weghorst could also replace the misfiring Memphis Depay from the start, especially given Austria’s slight weakness when defending crosses.

2️⃣ Austria Update

Austria will pose a significant attacking threat to any side, having scored in all but one of their previous 19 matches since September 2022. Even more impressively, Das Team has lost just two of their last 18 games since a 3-1 defeat to Croatia in Vienna on September 25th, 2022, with Belgium and France the only teams to defeat Rangnick’s side during this sequence. Both Germany and Italy have been vanquished during this run, and if Austria are to add the Netherlands to this list, Christoph Baumgartner will once again be key. He now has six goals in his last seven international caps and has completed six dribbles during the tournament so far.

Last 5 Games
Poland 1
Austria 3
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Austria 0
France 1
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Switzerland 1
Austria 1
08.06.24
International Friendly
Austria 2
Serbia 1
04.06.24
International Friendly
Austria 6
Turkey 1
26.03.24
International Friendly

Defender Gernot Trauner, who scored the opener in the win over Poland, was forced off with a muscle injury shortly afterwards and is a doubt for the Netherlands’ clash. This should see Max Wober or Kevin Danso return at centre back. Marko Arnautovic is also expected to keep his place his place in the team, with fellow striker Michael Gregoritsch starting on the bench.

Player Reason
Gernot Trauner Muscle Injury

👕 Netherlands vs Austria Potential Lineups

Pos. Netherlands
4-3-3
Austria
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper B. Verbruggen P. Pentz Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Dumfries S. Posch Right Back
Centre Back S. de Vrij K. Danso Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk P. Lienhart Centre Back
Left Back N. Ake P. Mwene Left Back
Midfielder G. Wijnaldum N. Seiwald Midfielder
Midfielder J. Veerman F. Grillitsch Midfielder
Midfielder T. Reijnders K. Laimer Midfielder
Wide Forward X. Simons M. Sabitzer Wide Forward
Striker W. Weghorst C. Arnautović Striker
Wide Forward C. Gakpo C. Baumgartner Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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