Germany vs Hungary: Euro 2024 Prediction & Betting Tips

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 19th June 2024
PredictionGermany to Win!
Odds@1.28
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.28
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Sportaza
Odds : 1.28
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Germany produced a five-star showing in their UEFA European Championship opener against Scotland, as they thrashed Steve Clarke’s side 5-1 in Munich. Sure, they were aided by a ragged and ill-disciplined performance from the Scots, but the Germans were fluent in possession and inspired by their precocious winger Jamal Musiala. As for Group A rivals Hungary, they’re already drinking in the last chance saloon after losing to Switzerland and clearly face an uphill challenge at the MHPArena. But will the Germans continue to build momentum in Stuttgart on Wednesday, and what have Ireland’s best betting sites had to say?

🏆 Germany vs Hungary Prediction

While Scotland were far too passive and lacking in attacking threat against the Germans at the Allianz Arena, Julian Nagelsmann’s side certainly took full advantage of this. More specifically, they boasted 68% possession during the 90 minutes and completed 657 of the 697 passes they attempted (94%). Germany also launched an impressive 63 attacks and produced an xG of 2.51 in Munich.

The host nation’s ability to sustain attacks was also impressive. In fact, they completed 37 ball recoveries in their Group A opener, with only Slovenia (47), England (44), Denmark (39) and Switzerland (38) recording more. The attacking trio of Musial (3), İlkay Gündoğan (3) and Florian Wirtz (3) recovered nine balls between them high up the park as Germany suffocated their opponents.

Interestingly, Hungary also completed 36 ball recoveries in their high-octane match against the Swiss. However, Marco Rossi’s side were also quite open in defensive transition and lost 11 of the 14 tackles they attempted, and they’ll undoubtedly have to tighten up against the Germans in Stuttgart. They also managed just six attempts on goal despite seeing 49.7% of the ball in Cologne.

Ultimately, I expect Hungary to be a little more compact at the MHPArena, with their wing backs likely to play a little deeper to cope with the German threat in wide areas. Although this may challenge Nagelsmann’s team to showcase a little more patience than was required against the Scots, I’m predicting another comfortable win for the hosts in a match where both teams will score.

My Prediction: 🏆Germany 3 – 1 Hungary⚽

💯 Germany vs Hungary Match Odds

Unsurprisingly, Germany are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Hungary and extend their winning start at Euro 2024. However, you can also bet on both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored at the MHPArena. But how exactly are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Germany vs Hungary: Match Winner

You can back Germany to win in Stuttgart at an average price of 1.25, implying an 80% probability of a victory for the host nation. Conversely, Hungary’s odds are as high as 12.00 with some sportsbooks, suggesting that they have just an 8.33% chance of recording their third ever win at the finals of the European Championship. The draw is priced at around 5.75, implying a 17.39% probability of the match ending tied.

Team
Germany to Win1.201.281.251.281.28
Hungary to Win12.0010.0012.0010.0010.00
Draw to Win6.005.755.755.755.75

⚽ Germany vs Hungary: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

For all of Germany’s defensive improvements under Nagelsmann, seven of the nation’s previous nine matches have seen both teams score (78%). Although the Hungarians kept three clean sheets in just eight attempts during qualifying, both sides have found the net in eight of their last 11 games overall (73%). The Hungarians have also found the net in each of these games, including their 3-1 defeat to Switzerland in their opening match at the Euros.

Yes/No
Yes2.002.102.072.102.10
No1.731.711.641.711.71

🥅 Germany vs Hungary: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Nagelsmann has taken charge of nine matches since his appointment in September 2023, with these encounters producing 29 goals at a rate of 3.22 per game. Germany have scored 18 of these goals and conceded 11 at a rate of 1.22 per 90 minutes. During Hungary’s previous nine matches, a total of 28 goals have been scored, at the slightly lower rate of 3.11 per 90.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.571.621.551.621.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.302.352.302.30

✔️ Germany vs Hungary - Betting Tips

Clearly, there’s only nominal value to be found in backing Germany to defeat Hungary at prohibitive odds of 1.25. However, many of the alternative betting markets offer superior value here, while you can also build combination wagers to help maximise your returns. Here are some betting tips to consider ahead of the match.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The pre-game odds imply a 58.47% probability of both teams not scoring at the MHPArena. However, Hungary retain a deceptively prominent goal threat and have found the net in each of their last 11 matches. They also scored in all but one of their eight Euro 2024 qualifiers (a 0-0 draw against Montenegro on June 17th, 2023), while Germany have drawn just a single blank in five matches since losing 2-0 to Austria last November. So, there’s value in backing both teams to score at the competitive price of 2.10 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Germany to Win with Over 2.5 Goals: When it comes to combination betting, it’s highly recommended that you pick two or more outcomes that are statistically likely to occur. For example, the odds imply an 80% probability of a win for the hosts, while there’s also a 63.69% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. The seven matches played during Euro 2024 so far have yielded 22 goals at a rate of 3.14 per game too, so consider backing Germany to win with over 2.5 goals scored at the enhanced price of 1.78 with Sportaza.
  • Tip 3: Back Jamal Musiala as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you may want to wager on the anytime goalscorer market. Germany’s precocious Jamal Musiala offers particular value here at a price of 2.57 with ProntoBet, having already found the net against Scotland and completed a tournament-high nine dribbles. He remains a considerable threat both in and out of possession, especially as Nagelsmann’s system enables him to drift inside from his starting position on the right flank.

1️⃣ Germany Update

Germany were imperious during their 5-1 thrashing of Scotland, as the Euro 2024 hosts continued their improvement under the stewardship of Nagelsmann. The former RB Leipzig and Bayern manager has certainly made Germany more balanced and capable of winning the ball back higher up the park, while creating a shape that accommodates both Musiala and Leverkusen’s Florian Wirtz. Combined, these players scored two goals and completed 10 dribbles in Germany’s Group A opener. Overall, the Germans are now unbeaten in five since the 2-0 defeat in Vienna on November 21st, 2023, and will be confident of extending this run against Hungary.

Last 5 Games
Germany 5
Austria 1
14.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A
Germany 2
Greece 1
07.06.24
International Friendly
Germany 0
Ukraine 0
03.06.24
International Friendly
Germany 2
Netherlands 1
26.03.24
International Friendly
France 0
Germany 2
23.03.24
International Friendly

Germany emerged from their tournament opener unscathed, with Jamal Musial and Thomas Muller (both knee) and Leroy Sane (groin) all making appearances and demonstrating their fitness after recent injury scares. Keeper Manuel Neuer also recovered from illness to start against the Scots, and is expected to retain his place against Hungary in Stuttgart.

2️⃣ Hungary Update

Although Hungary were enterprising and energetic against the Swiss in their Euro 2024 opener, they were far too open defensively and only managed to register six attempts on goal (just two of which were on target). While this will be concerning for head coach Marco Rossi, this was only the Magyars’ second defeat in 18 matches overall, since a 2-0 Nations League loss to Italy in September 2022. This extended sequence has also seen Hungary concede just 16 goals, so the team is clearly capable of creating a more compact iteration of its trusted 3-4-2-1 formation. Dominik Szoboszlai will remain central to Hungary’s attacking endeavours too, having assisted Barnabás Varga’s goal against the Swiss and completed four dribbles.

Last 5 Games
Hungary 1
Switzerland 3
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A
Hungary 3
Israel 0
08.06.24
International Friendly
Ireland 2
Hungary 1
06.06.24
International Friendly
Hungary 2
Kosovo 0
26.03.24
International Friendly
Hungary 1
Turkey 0
22.03.24
International Friendly

Hungary arrived in Germany with a fully fit squad, and have reported no new injuries ahead of the match against the hosts. They’re widely expected to name the same starting 11 against Nagelsmann’s team too, although I expect the Hungarians to be a little less open and more compact when out of possession.

👕 Germany vs Hungary Potential Lineups

Pos. Germany
4-2-3-1
Hungary
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Neuer P. Gulácsi Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Kimmich A. Lang Right Centre Back
Centre Back J. Tah W. Orban Centre Back
Centre Back A. Rudiger A. Szalai Left Centre Back
Left Back M. Mittelstädt A. Fiola Right Wing Back
Midfielder R. Andrich A. Nagy Central Midfielder
Midfielder T. Kroos A. Schafer Central Midfielder
Midfielder I. Gündoğan M. Kerkez Left Wing Back
Wide Forward J. Musiala R. Sallai Attacking Midfielder
Striker K. Havertz D. Szoboszlai Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward F. Wirtz B. Varga Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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