Germany vs Denmark Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 21:00 GMT 29th June 2024 |
| Prediction | Germany to Win! |
| Odds | @1.63 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Host nation Germany will resume their 2024 UEFA European Championship campaign at Dortmund’s Westfalenstadion on June 29th. Here, they’ll take on Euro 2020 semi-finalists Denmark, who have underwhelmed so far during the campaign but retain enough experience, quality and defensive organisation to upset their hosts. Although the Germans themselves required a last-gasp equaliser against Switzerland to top Group A after their final game, they’ve largely impressed from an offensive perspective and launched 207 attacks so far. They’ll definitely start as the favourites here, but which side do I think will win and what odds are being offered by Ireland’s best betting sites?
🏆 Germany vs Denmark Prediction
Only Portugal have mounted more attacks than Germany at Euro 2024 (213), but the DFB Eleven have topped the charts for attempts on goal (57) and strikes on target (19). Julian Nagelsmann’s men accumulated a total xG of 5.47 during the group stage too, highlighting their ability to create high-quality chances even against well-organised and compact defences.
The Germans also average 64.3% possession per 90 minutes at the tournament, with no side more dominant in possession so far. Conversely, the Danes averaged 52.3% possession across their three Group C matches, while generating a total xG of 3.44. This total comprises an xG of 1.77 in their opening draw with Slovenia, however, and they struggled to create opportunities against both England and Serbia.
So, I expect Germany to dominate possession at the Westfalenstadion as Denmark drop into a low defensive block and look for opportunities to counterattack. The good news for the Danes is that they’ve recovered 125 balls at Euro 2024 (the fourth highest such tally at the tournament), and have the ability to at least disrupt Germany’s possession and prevent them from sustaining attacks.
However, Nagelsmann’s team have also recovered 114 balls and tends to press much higher up the park. I think that the pace and tempo of their play both in and out of possession, will ultimately be too much for their opponents, with the wide threat of Florian Wirtz and the precocious Jamal Musiala likely to prove crucial.
My Prediction: Germany 2 – 1 Denmark⚽
💯 Germany vs Denmark Betting Odds
Whichever side prevails here, they’ll most likely face a daunting quarterfinal match against Spain on Stuttgart on July 5th. As I’ve touched on, Germany are the pre-game favourites in the win market, while you can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Dortmund during the 90 minutes. Let’s take a look at the latest prices!
🏅 Germany vs Denmark: Match Winner
You can get on the Germans to defeat Denmark at the Westfalenstadion at an average price of 1.62, implying a 61.72% probability of a win for the hosts. Alternatively, you can back Denmark to record their first victory over the DFB Eleven since 2007 at around 6.00, suggesting that they have just a 16.67% chance of achieving this goal. The draw is priced at 3.80, implying a 26.31% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  | Germany to Win | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.63 | 1.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark to Win | 6.00 | 5.66 | 6.50 | 5.66 | 6.00 |
| Draw to Win | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
⚽ Germany vs Denmark: Both Teams To Score Odds
Both teams have scored in six of Germany’s previous 10 matches overall (60%), with the Euro 2024 hosts keeping three clean sheets and failing to score on two occasions. They’ve also kept three clean sheets in their last seven games under Nagelsmann. In the case of Denmark, both sides have also found the net in six of their previous 10 encounters. The Danes have kept three clean sheets and drawn three blanks, too, during this sequence.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 2.10 | 2.08 |
| No | 1.73 | 1.71 | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.76 |
🥅 Germany vs Denmark: Over/Under Goals Odds
Germany’s last 10 matches have also produced a total of 29 goals, at a rate of 2.9 per game. Although they’ve conceded 11 times at an average of 1.1 per 90 minutes during this sequence, they’ve looked a little more secure and organised in 2024. The previous 10 matches contested by the Danes have yielded 21 goals at the lower rate of 2.1 per 90. They’ve scored 13 of these goals at an average of just 1.3 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.05 | 1.97 | 2.05 | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.84 |
✔️ Germany vs Denmark Betting Tips
However you choose to deploy your real money bankroll or available free bets, it’s important that you strive to identify the best value markets. Here are some expert tips and insights to help you achieve this objective!
- Tip 1: Back Germany to Win: The pre-game odds imply a 61.72% probability of a German win, but the hosts should arguably be heavier favourites given the attacking quality that they’ve showcased so far. Denmark have also struggled to create chances consistently at Euro 2024 and relied heavily on service from wide areas, having completed 17 of their 63 crosses so far (27%). However, Antonio Rudiger has been dominant aerially and completed all 11 of his clearances so far at the tournament, while the incoming Nico Schlotterbeck is also superb in the air. So, there’s value in backing Germany to win outright at a price of 1.63 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Both Teams to Score: The odds also imply just a 48.30% probability of both teams scoring in Dortmund, thanks largely to Denmark’s relative lack of goals and attacking threat during the group stage. However, the Danes have still scored in seven of their previous 10 matches (70%), while both Scotland and Switzerland were able to breach the German defences in Group A. Germany have also lost 23 of their 35 tackles overall (62.85%), so get on both sides to score during the 90 minutes here at a price of 2.10 with Sportaza Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: It’s also interesting to note that the totals odds imply just a 48.78% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Dortmund. However, the previous 20 matches contested by both Germany and Denmark have produced 50 goals at a rate of exactly 2.5 per 90, while the variation that exists in the DFB Eleven’s attack is arguably unmatched at Euro 2024. Germany and Denmark have also averaged respective xG values of 1.82 and 1.44 at the tournament so far, so get on over 2.5 goals being scored here at a price of 2.05 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Germany Update
When Germany slumped to a 2-0 defeat against Austria in Vienna on November 21st, 2023, they incurred their sixth defeat of the calendar year and looked like a completely disjointed team. This represented both a nadir and the turning point for Nagelsmann’s reign, however, with the former Bayern coach switching to a fluid 4-2-3-1 as his charges have embarked on a seven-match unbeaten run in 2024. This sequence included all three group stage matches, although the Germans did need a 92nd-minute equaliser by Füllkrug against the Swiss last time out. The Dortmund striker has played a seminal role off the bench so far, scoring twice from just three attempts at a rate of one every 36.5 minutes.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1 Germany 1 | 23.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 2 Hungary 0 | 19.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 5 Scotland 1 | 14.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A |
| Germany 2 Greece 1 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Germany 0 Ukraine 0 | 03.06.24 International Friendly |
As I’ve touched on, Nico Schlotterbeck will come into the German starting 11 against Denmark. He’s set to replace fellow centre back Jonathan Tah, who collected his second booking of the tournament against Switzerland. Despite another goalscoring cameo against the Swiss, powerful forward Füllkrug is likely to start from the bench once again in an otherwise unchanged 11.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jonathan Tah | Suspended |
2️⃣ Denmark Update
Despite Denmark’s largely sluggish start to Euro 2024, the nation has now lost just two of their previous 17 matches since a 1-0 defeat to Australia at the FIFA World Cup back in November, 2022. Just one of these defeats has come in a competitive match too, with 10-man Kazakhstan beating them 3-2 in a Euro 2024 qualification game in March 2023. They’ve been typically solid and well organised in Germany, conceding just two goals and allowing their opponents a combined xG of 2.34. Leicester centre half Jannik Vestergaard has played a key role here, completing eight of his nine attempted clearances and recovering an impressive 22 balls.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Denmark 0 Serbia 0 | 25.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C |
| Denmark 1 England 1 | 20.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C |
| Slovenia 1 Denmark 1 | 16.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C |
| Denmark 3 Norway 1 | 08.06.24 International Friendly |
| Denmark 2 Sweden 1 | 05.06.24 International Friendly |
Denmark will also make an enforced change in Dortmund, with influential midfielder Morten Hjulmand (who scored the Dane’s goal against England) suspended after picking up a second tournament booking against Serbia. It’s widely expected that Sporting’s Thomas Delaney will replace him at the Westfalenstadion, but the Scandinavian nation should be otherwise unchanged.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Morten Hjulmand | Suspended |
👕 Germany vs Denmark Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Germany 4-2-3-1 | Denmark 3-4-2-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. Neuer | K. Schmeichel | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Kimmich | J. Andersen | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | A. Rudiger | J. Vestergaard | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | N. Schlotterbeck | A. Christensen | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | M. Mittelstädt | A. Bah | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | R. Andrich | T. Delaney | Central Midfielder |
| Midfielder | T. Kroos | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | Central Midfielder |
| Midfielder | I. Gündoğan | J. Mæhle | Left Wing Back |
| Wide Forward | J. Musiala | J. Wind | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | K. Havertz | C. Eriksen | Attacking Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | F. Wirtz | R. Højlund | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Euro Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
