Georgia vs Portugal Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

georgia-vs-portugal-prediction georgia-vs-portugal-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 26th June 2024
PredictionPortugal to Win!
Odds1.40
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.40
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Georgia-vs-Portugal-logo Georgia-vs-Portugal-logo

Portugal’s surprisingly comfortable 3-0 win over Turkey assured Roberto Martinez’s side a place in the round of 16, while this victory also guaranteed them top spot in UEFA European Championship Group F. So, the manager may choose to rotate his squad in the final group game against Georgia, who realistically need a victory to qualify for the knockout stages and extend their debut at a major tournament. Of course, the quality in the Portuguese squad means that even their second-string may have too much for the Georgians, but Willy Sagnol’s men have played with real courage so far and will surely be up for the challenge in Gelsenkirchen. But will class prevail at the Arena AufSchalke, or can Georgia spring a huge surprise?

🏆 Georgia vs Portugal Prediction

Although Georgia have mostly ceded possession in their two Euro 2024 games so far, they’ve been aggressive in attacking transition and recovered 91 balls. This is the most of any team to have played less then three matches at the tournament. They’ve also won 13 tackles and attempted 71 clearances, with their ability to defend robustly making them highly competitive against both Turkey and the Czech Republic.

As for Portugal, they’ve averaged 62.5% possession per 90 minutes at Euro 2024 and completed 1145 of their 1287 passes (89%). Playmaker Bruno Fernandes has been central to Portugal’s controlled possession game, with the Manchester United midfielder completing 84% of his 134 passes. He has also played 11 balls into the final third and completed seven key passes, so he has helped the team to progress the play and create high quality chances.

Thanks in part to the influence of Fernandes and the skilful Bernardo Silva, Portugal have accumulated an xG of 3.74 across their two Group F games. They’ve also launched 114 attacks, so Georgia may struggle if they allow their opponents to have the ball and hit on the break. However, they also lack the technical quality to retain possession for long periods, especially against a side that has also recovered 83 balls during the competition.

It’s therefore hard to see past a win for the Portuguese, even if Martinez chooses to rest players like Cristiano Ronaldo, Pepe, Joao Cancelo and Rafael Leão. I’d also expect at least one of Fernandes or Bernardo Silva to start in Gelsenkirchen, and this should ensure a comfortable victory in a match where Georgia struggle to get any kind of foothold.

Format: My Prediction: Georgia 0 - 3 Portugal⚽

💯 Georgia vs Portugal Betting Odds

When you wager at your choice of Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll find a large and diverse selection of markets pertaining to the match between Georgia and Portugal. These include the match winner or result, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the game. Here’s my take these markets and how they’re being priced.

🏅 Georgia vs Portugal: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Portugal are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Georgia at the Arena AufSchalke, with their odds of 1.40 implying a 71.42% probability of a victory for Roberto Martinez’s men. Conversely, Georgia can be backed at around 7.50 to earn their first ever win at the European Championship finals, so they have just a 13.33% chance of achieving this objectives. The draw is priced at 5.00, implying a 20% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Georgia to Win8.007.507.257.507.60
Portugal to Win1.401.401.371.401.40
Draw to Win4.805.005.255.005.20

⚽ Georgia vs Portugal: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in six of Georgia’s last 10 matches (60%). Willy Sagnol’s side have kept four clean sheets during this sequence and failed to score just once (during a 0-0 draw against Greece in the Playoff Path C final that saw them book their place at Euro 2024). Both sides have found the net in four of Portugal’s previous 10 games (40%), with the Seleção keeping five clean sheets and drawing just a single blank.

Yes/No
Yes1.801.901.761.901.84
No1.911.901.911.901.98

🥅 Georgia vs Portugal: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches featuring Georgia have produced 35 goals in total, at a rate of 3.5 per game. They’ve scored 23 of these goals at an average of 2.3 per 90 minutes too, although this sequence included an 8-0 thrashing of Thailand. Conversely, Portugal’s previous 10 games have yielded 36 goals at the slightly higher rate of 3.6 per 90. The Portuguese scored 27 of these goals at an average of 2.7 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.571.611.551.611.58
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.332.362.332.46

✔️ Georgia vs Portugal Betting Tips

However you intend to wager your real money bankroll or available free bets, you’ll need to identify the best value markets and leverage these successfully. Here are some betting tips and insights to help you get started!

  • Tip 1: Back Portugal with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: The odds imply a 71.42% probability of a Portugal win, so there’s little value in backing them to prevail outright. However, you can create value by backing Portugal to win with a nominal handicap, especially given the difference in quality between the two teams. So far, Georgia’s Euro 2024 opponents have also accumulated an xG of 5.89 against the tournament minnows while dominating possession, and Portugal should continue this trend in Gelsenkirchen. Get on them to win with a handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.06 with RoyalistPlay Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Teams Not to Score: The pre-game odds also imply a 55.55% probability of both teams scoring here, with Georgia having also accumulated an xG of 2.60 during the tournament and scored in nine of their previous 10 matches. However, they struggled to make the most of their chances against Turkey, while they needed a penalty to find the net against the Czech Republic. They’ll also be starved of possession and territory at the Arena AufSchalke, so get on both teams not to score at a price of 1.98 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Diogo Jota as an Anytime Goalscorer: Liverpool hitman Diogo Jota is likely to get a start against Georgia, while his international career has seen him win 40 caps and score 14 goals. He’s notched two in 2024 already, while the 2023/24 campaign score him score 15 goals for Liverpool at a rate of one every 114.8 minutes. He averaged 0.24 goals-per-shot too, and there’s no doubting his efficiency and coolness in front of goal. So, there’s value in backing him as an anytime scorer against Georgia at the competitive price of 2.45 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Georgia Update

Georgia remain winless at Euro 2024 after their 1-1 draw with the Czech Republic, while they’ve only won four of their previous 10 matches in all competitions. What’s more, their last five matches against sides ranked in the world’s top 10 by FIFA have seen them incur five defeats by an aggregate score of 17-3. This included a 7-1 home thrashing at the hands of Spain during the course of Euro 2024 qualification. If they are to be competitive, forward Georges Mikautadze will have to play a pivotal role, as he has scored both of Georgia’s goals at Euro 2024 from six attempts and completed five dribbles in total.

Last 5 Games
Georgia 1
Czech Republic 1
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 3
Georgia 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Montenegro 1
Georgia 3
09.06.24
International Friendly
Georgia 0
Greece 0
26.03.24
UEFA Euro 2024 Qualification – Path C Playoff Final
Georgia 2
Luxembourg 0
21.03.24
UEFA Euro 2024 Qualification – Path C Playoff Semi-Final

Georgia have a fully fit and available squad to select from, while Sagnol doesn’t have the depth of squad to make wholesale changes. So, the manager is likely to persist with his flexible 3-5-2 formation and keep the same starting 11, with the precocious Napoli star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia set to partner Mikautadze up front once again. Could it be his time to shine and take centre stage in Germany?

2️⃣ Portugal Update

Portugal are ranked as the sixth-best team in the world by FIFA, so they sit 68 places above Georgia at the time of writing. A win for the Georgians would make them the lowest-ranked team ever to win at the European Championship finals, but Portugal have lost just two of their previous 17 matches in all competitions since Morocco defeated them 1-0 in the last eight of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Both defeats came in friendlies too. Although several players have caught the eye for Portugal at Euro 2024, left back Nuno Mendes has been particularly impressive, assisting once while recovering 11 balls, winning nine tackles and completing 10 passes into the attacking third.

Last 5 Games
Turkey 0
Portugal 3
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 2
Czech Republic 1
18.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Portugal 3
Ireland 0
11.06.24
International Friendly
Portugal 1
Croatia 2
08.06.24
International Friendly
Portugal 4
Finland 2
04.06.24
International Friendly

Although Martinez also has a fully fit squad to select from, he has already confirmed that he’ll make some changes to his starting 11 with Portugal already confirmed as the winners of Group F. As I’ve touched on, Diogo Jota is likely to start at the at the Arena AufSchalke, while Joao Felix, Diogo Dalot, Pedro Neto and Joao Neves are also in serious contention to play.

👕 Georgia vs Portugal Potential Lineups

Pos. Georgia
3-5-2
Portugal
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Mamardashvili D. Costa Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back S. Kvirkvelia D. Dalot Right Back
Centre Back G. Kashia A. Silva Centre Back
Left Centre Back L. Dvali G. Inacio Centre Back
Right Wing Back O. Kakabadze N. Mendes Left Back
Central Midfielder G. Chakvetadze Vitinha Midfielder
Central Midfielder A. Mekvabishvili João Neves Midfielder
Central Midfielder G. Kochorashvili B. Fernandes Midfielder
Left Wing Back G. Tsitaishvili P. Neto Wide Forward
Striker G. Mikautadze D. Jota Striker
Striker K. Kvaratskhelia Joao Felix Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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