France vs Poland Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 18:00 GMT 25th June 2024 |
| Prediction | France to Win! |
| Odds | @1.30 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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While France are guaranteed to finish in the top three UEFA European Championship Group D, they’re not yet assured of a place in the tournament’s round of 16. However, a win against Poland will secure safe passage to the knockout stages, potentially as group winners depending on the result of the match between Austria and the Netherlands. Although Les Bleus looked uninspired against the Netherlands last week, they should welcome back talisman Kylian Mbappe after injury, while Poland have struggled offensively and mounted just 62 attacks in total. The Poles have already been eliminated from the tournament too, but can they leave their mark on Euro 2024 by beating the favourites?
🏆 France vs Poland Prediction
Only Albania (44) have launched fewer attacks than Poland at Euro 2024, while Michał Probierz’s team have averaged just 39.5% possession per 90 minutes. So, they’ve struggled to sustain attacks and create meaningful chances against both the Netherlands and Austria, and they’ll only offer a limited threat against an organised and excellent French side.
Although Didier Deschamps’s charges have yet to reach their best levels in Germany, the likely restoration of Kylian Mbappe to their front line will afford them a much greater threat in the final third. So, we should expect to see a more potent Les Bleus side in Dortmund than we saw against the Netherlands, as the one that attempted 14 shots on goal and accumulated an xG of 2.13 in their first Group D match against Austria.
France are one of eight teams at the tournament to have initiated over 100 attacks (102), with Mbappe, Marcus Thuram and Ousmane Dembele particularly threatening in wide areas. Collectively, Les Bleus have completed 42 dribbles at Euro 2024 (only Portugal and Spain have managed more), with the direct and pacy Dembele completing 12 by himself and succeeding with 40% of his five crosses.
Ultimately, I expect France to start on the front foot against Poland, especially given what’s at stake and the return of the outstanding Mbappe. The fact that Poland have already been eliminated also means that they’ll lack any tangible motivation at the Westfalenstadion, so it’s hard to see past a comfortable France victory here.
My Prediction: France 2 – 0 Poland⚽
💯 France vs Poland Betting Odds
Poland’s early elimination from Euro 2024 has undoubtedly impacted the betting markets ahead of their clash against France. It has made them even bigger betting underdogs in the win market, for example, while arguably making them less likely to score in Dortmund. Let’s take a closer look at the game’s most popular betting markets and how they’re being priced.
🏅 France vs Poland: Match Winner
France are one of the shortest price favourites we’ve seen at Euro 2024, with their pre-game odds of 1.29 implying a 77.51% probability of Les Bleus defeating Poland. As for the Poles, they can be backed as high as 11.00 to beat France for the first time since August 1982, suggesting that they have just a 9.09% chance of emerging victorious in Dortmund. The draw is priced at 5.66, implying a 17.66% probability of this match ending in a tie.
| Team to Win |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France to Win | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.29 |
| Poland to Win | 11.00 | 9.50 | 10.50 | 9.50 | 10.00 |
| Draw to Win | 5.50 | 5.66 | 5.75 | 5.66 | 5.80 |
⚽ France vs Poland: Both Teams To Score Odds
Both teams have scored in seven of the previous 10 matches contested by Poland. The Poles have kept three clean sheets during this sequence, while failing to score once in the Path A Playoff final against Wales on March 26th (the subsequently qualified for the Euros on penalties). Both sides have found the next in just four of France’s last 10 games, with Les Bleus keeping five clean sheets and drawing a single blank. France have stopped their opponents from scoring in each of their last four matches.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 2.05 | 2.10 |
| No | 1.73 | 1.74 | 1.72 | 1.74 | 1.74 |
🥅 France vs Poland: Over/Under Goals Odds
Poland’s last 10 matches have also seen 28 goals scored at a rate of 2.8 per game. They’ve scored 18 of these goals at an average of 1.8 per 90 minutes. The last 10 encounters featuring France have produced 37 goals at a rate of 3.7 per 90, with France netting 29 times at an average of 2.9 per game. However, this sequence did include a 14-0 thrashing of Gibraltar during Euro qualifying.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.28 | 2.30 | 2.36 |
✔️ France vs Poland Betting Tips
As you can see, France are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Poland in Dortmund, so there’s little value in backing them to win outright. However, value can be found in the BTTS and over/under markets, while combination betting may also enable you to wager at enhanced odds here. Here are some betting tips to keep in mind!
- Tip 1: Back France to Win and Both Teams Not to Score: The odds imply a 77.51% probability of France beating Poland here. However, the BTTS odds also imply a 57.80% probability of both teams not scoring in Dortmund, which makes sense given Poland’s lack of attacking threat and the ongoing fitness issues surrounding talisman Robert Lewandowski. France haven’t conceded in 368 minutes of play too, so there’s value in backing Les Bleus to win and both teams not to score at the enhanced price of 1.94 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: Interestingly, the odds also imply a 62.5% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the Westfalenstadion. However, for all of their attacking quality and pace, France have only attempted six attempts on target at Euro 2024 so far. They’ve also underperformed their total xG of 3.55, while the Poles have looked especially toothless from open play. Given these facts and the strength of France’s defence, there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.36 with 20BET Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Ousmane Dembele to Produce Over 0.5 Assists: If you have one or more free bets on your account, consider backing Ousmane Dembele to contribute over 0.5 assists against Poland. Only four players in the tournament have completed more dribbles than Dembele (12), while the PSG winger has also made six key passes and regularly takes corners for Les Bleus. He should see plenty of the ball as Poland sit off France too, and you can get on this market at a price of 4.00 with RoyalistPlay Sports.
1️⃣ France Update
Les Bleus have now lost just two of their previous 16 matches in all competitions, with both of these being administered in international friendlies by Germany. Even more impressively, they’ve tasted defeat in just one of their last 14 competitive games, with this being inflicted by Argentina on penalties in the 2022 FIFA World Cup final. The return of Mbappe will also provide a timely boost for the French after the 0-0 stalemate with the Netherlands, especially as his sole appearance in the tournament so far saw him contribute a superb assist, complete five dribbles and make two key passes.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Netherlands 0 France 0 | 21.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Austria 0 France 1 | 17.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| France 0 Canada 0 | 09.06.24 International Friendly |
| France 3 Luxembourg 0 | 05.06.24 International Friendly |
| France 3 Chile 2 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
It was the returning Aurélien Tchouaméni who replaced Mbappe in the starting 11 against the Netherlands, with Antoine Griezmann moving into the forward line. However, the return of the Real Madrid-bound Mbappe will create a selection dilemma against Poland, with his new clubmate Tchouaméni likely to return to the bench as Griezmann moves deeper once again. There are no new injury concerns for the French.
| Player | Reason |
|---|
2️⃣ Poland Update
Poland were the first team to be eliminated from Euro 2024, although Scotland have since joined them in booking their flights home. Once again, they’ve disappointed at a major tournament, losing to both the Netherlands and Austria while struggling to showcase any kind of sustained attacking threat. Overall, they’ve only won five of their last 10 games in all competitions too, failing to beat teams such as Moldova and the Czech Republic during this sequence. However, it’s likely that Robert Lewandowski will return to Poland’s starting 11 in Dortmund, in what may be his last chance to add to his haul of seven goals at major tournaments for his country.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Poland 1 Austria 3 | 21.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Poland 1 Netherlands 2 | 16.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D |
| Poland 2 Turkey 1 | 10.06.24 International Friendly |
| Poland 3 Ukraine 1 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Wales 0 Poland 0 | 26.03.24 UEFA Euro Qualifiers – Path A Playoff Final |
The likely return of Lewandowski may be one of two changes to the Polish starting 11 at the Westfalenstadion. This is because the Poles also have doubts over the fitness of centre back Bartosz Salamon, who suffered an ankle injury prior to the defeat against Austria. I expect him to miss out against Les Bleus too.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Bartosz Salamon | Ankle Injury |
👕 France vs Poland Potential Lineups
| Pos. | France 4-3-3 | Poland 3-5-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. Maignan | W. Szczęsny | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Koundé | J. Bednarek | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | W. Saliba | P. Dawidowicz | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | D. Upamecano | J. Kiwior | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | T. Hernández | P. Frankowski | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | A. Rabiot | P. Zieliński | Central Midfielder |
| Midfielder | N. Kante | B. Slisz | Central Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Griezmann | P. Piotrowski | Central Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | O. Dembele | N. Zalewski | Left Wing Back |
| Striker | M. Thuram | K. Piątek | Striker |
| Wide Forward | K. Mbappe | R. Lewandowski | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
