France vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

france-v-belgium-euro2024 france-v-belgium-euro2024
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 1st July 2024
PredictionFrance to Win!
Odds@1.92
Bookmaker20BET Sports
France to Win!
The best odds
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france-v-belgium-euro2024 france-v-belgium-euro2024

It’s fair to say that neither France nor Belgium have excelled so far in the 2024 UEFA European Championship, with Les Bleus having scored only once from open play during the group stage (and this was an own goal by Austrian defender Maximilian Wöber). As for Belgium, they slumped to a 1-0 defeat against Slovakia and failed to score against Ukraine, while talisman Romelu Lukaku has yet to find the net at the tournament. Of course, both teams also failed to top their respective groups, ensuring that they’re meeting earlier in the tournament than they’d like. But who will prevail in this heavyweight clash at the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf?

🏆 France vs Belgium Prediction

Despite having only scored four goals between them during the group stages, Belgium and France have initiated 174 and 164 attacks respectively during the tournament. Only Germany (207) and Portugal (213) and mounted more, while Les Blues also accumulated a total xG of 5.83 during their three matches and dramatically underperformed this.

France have also struck 49 attempts on goal at an average of 16.33 per 90 minutes, but only 14 have found the target. So, although they’ve been creative and progressive in the final third (they carved out five big chances against Poland alone), they’ve struggled to convert and make the most of their approach play.

Conversely, Belgium have struggled to consistently create high quality chances during their Euro 2024 matches so far. Their cumulative xG value for the tournament is noticeably lower than their opponents (4.55), while they struggled to find any fluency at all during the 0-0 draw with Ukraine in Stuttgart.

It’s hard to see much changing in Düsseldorf, with France struggling to convert chances and strike the optimal balance in attack and Belgium far too reliant on the creativity of Kevin De Bruyne. The stakes will also be high at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, and neither will want to overcommit and leave themselves exposed in transition. Overall, I’m tipping France to edge a low-scoring game, as their big-game pedigree and proven tournament nous come to the fore.

My Prediction: France 1 – 0 Belgium⚽

💯 France vs Belgium Betting Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published a diverse range of markets ahead of the clash between France and Belgium, with Les Bleus the pre-game favourites to win. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest prices.

🏅 France vs Belgium: Match Winner

You can back France to defeat Belgium in Düsseldorf at an average price of 1.91. These odds imply a 52.63% of Les Blues prevailing in 90 minutes and advancing to the quarterfinals. As for the Red Devils, they’re priced at around 4.60 to record just their second win in seven attempts against France, suggesting that they have a 21.73% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is priced at 3.20, implying a 31.25% probability of the match being tied during normal time.

Team to win
France to Win1.911.921.901.921.92
Belgium to Win4.604.504.604.504.70
Draw to Win3.203.253.103.253.25

⚽ France vs Belgium: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in four of France’s previous 10 matches (40%). Les Bleus have kept five clean sheets and drawn three blanks during this sequence, including a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands in Group D. Incredibly, both sides have found the net in just two of Belgium’s last 10 games (20%), with the Red Devils keeping seven clean sheets and drawing three blanks (two of which have come in three matches at Euro 2024).

Yes/No
Yes2.002.101.962.102.09
No1.731.711.701.711.75

🥅 France vs Belgium: Over/Under Goals Odds

The previous 10 matches contested by France have yielded a total of 36 goals, at a rate of 3.6 per game. However, nearly half of these came during the stunning 14-0 by Les Bleus over 10-man Gibraltar in qualifying. Otherwise, their last five encounters have produced just six goals at an average of 1.20 per 90 minutes. The last 10 games featuring Belgium have seen a total of 23 goals at a rate of 2.3 per 90. They’ve only conceded six times during this run at an average of 0.6 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.252.362.262.362.34
Under 2.5 Goals1.601.601.591.601.63

✔️ France vs Belgium Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager using your real money balance or any available free bets that you have on your account, there are plenty of markets and betting lines for you to explore here. Here are some tips to help you navigate these successfully.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score and Under 2.5 Goals: The odds imply a 58.47% probability of both teams not scoring at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, based largely on the relative defensive strength of France and Belgium. This is also impacting the over/under market, where the odds imply a 62.5% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. The six matches contested by both teams at Euro 2024 have also yielded just six goals in total, and this could be a war of attrition in Düsseldorf. You can get on both teams not to score and under 2.5 goals being scored here at the enhanced price of 1.90 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Kylian Mbappe as an Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe returned from a broken nose against Austria with his maiden European Championship goals against Poland. He has now scored 13 goals at major tournament finals for Les Bleus (including 12 at the FIFA World Cup) and clearly has a penchant for the big occasion. He has also notched 48 goals in 81 international appearances at a rate of 0.59 per 90 minutes, so he offers value as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.30 with RoyalistPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back France to Win by a Single Goal: Of the eight head-to-head meetings that have been contested by France and Belgium since March 1996, only one has been won by a margin of more than one goal. Three have ended in draws, while the remaining four have all been settled by the odd goal. This sequence includes the last three fixtures, with two of these games having been won by France and the other by the Red Devils. So, there’s value in backing Les Bleus to win here by the odd goal here at a price of 3.60 with 20BET Sports.

1️⃣ France Update

Despite their struggles and failure to convert chances at Euro 2024, France have now lost just two of their last 17 matches overall. Germany remain the only team to defeat them since December 18th, 2022, when they lost a thrilling World Cup final on penalties to Argentina. This remains their sole competitive defeat in 15 matches, and there’s no doubting Les Bleus’ exceptional defensive organisation and just how tough they are to beat. Bayern centre back Dayot Upamecano has been key to France so far, having recovered 21 balls in total and completed nine of his 12 attempted clearances (75%).

Last 5 Games
France 1
Poland 1
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Netherlands 0
France 0
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Austria 0
France 1
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
France 0
Canada 0
09.06.24
International Friendly
France 3
Luxembourg 0
05.06.24
International Friendly

With Mbappe now back in the fold, French manager Didier Deschamps has a fully fit squad to choose from for the match against Belgium. I expect Antoine Griezmann to return to the starting 11 after being rested against Poland, where Les Bleus missed his movement and ability to break lines with his passing (he has completed seven passes into the attacking third at Euro 2024). Aurélien Tchouaméni or Adrien Rabiot will be sacrificed to accommodate his return.

Player Reason

2️⃣ Belgium Update

Slovakia’s 1-0 win over Belgium in their Euro 2024 not only snapped the Red Devils’ 14-match unbeaten run, but it also set the tone for a difficult European Championship campaign so far. However, Domenico Tedesco’s side have only lost one of their last 17 matches in all competitions, since they were stunned by Morocco in the 2022 World Cup group stages in Qatar. Like France, they’ve been defensively resilient during this sequence, keeping 12 clean sheets and stopping their opponents from scoring 70.58% of the time. Leicester City centre back Wout Faes has starred for the Red Devils so far in Germany, winning seven tackles in total and recovering 16 balls.

Last 5 Games
Ukraine 0
Belgium 0
26.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 2
Romania 0
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 0
Slovakia 1
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 3
Luxembourg 0
08.06.24
International Friendly
Belgium 2
Montenegro 0
05.06.24
International Friendly

Although Axel Witsel (adductor injury) and Thomas Meunier (thigh) remain doubts for the match against France, Tedesco will welcome back talented young winger Dodi Lukebakio from suspension. He’s in contention to start too, with Arsenal forward Leandro Trossard completely ineffective against Ukraine. Arthur Theatre is also fit after overcoming a slight thigh injury and is likely to start in Düsseldorf.

Player Reason
Axel Witsel Adductor Injury
Thomas Meunier Thigh Injury

👕 France vs Belgium Potential Lineups

Pos. France
4-2-3-1
Belgium
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Maignan K. Casteels Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Koundé T. Castagne Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba W. Faes Centre Back
Centre Back D. Upamecano J. Vertonghen Centre Back
Left Back T. Hernández A. Theate Left Back
Midfielder A. Rabiot A. Onana Midfielder
Midfielder N. Kante Y. Tielemans Midfielder
Midfielder A. Griezmann K. De Bruyne Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele D. Lukebakio Wide Forward
Striker K. Mbappe R. Lukaku Striker
Wide Forward B. Barcola J. Doku Wide Forward

France to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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