France vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

🏆 France vs Belgium Prediction

Despite having only scored four goals between them during the group stages, Belgium and France have initiated 174 and 164 attacks respectively during the tournament. Only Germany (207) and Portugal (213) and mounted more, while Les Blues also accumulated a total xG of 5.83 during their three matches and dramatically underperformed this.

France have also struck 49 attempts on goal at an average of 16.33 per 90 minutes, but only 14 have found the target. So, although they’ve been creative and progressive in the final third (they carved out five big chances against Poland alone), they’ve struggled to convert and make the most of their approach play.

Conversely, Belgium have struggled to consistently create high quality chances during their Euro 2024 matches so far. Their cumulative xG value for the tournament is noticeably lower than their opponents (4.55), while they struggled to find any fluency at all during the 0-0 draw with Ukraine in Stuttgart.

It’s hard to see much changing in Düsseldorf, with France struggling to convert chances and strike the optimal balance in attack and Belgium far too reliant on the creativity of Kevin De Bruyne. The stakes will also be high at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, and neither will want to overcommit and leave themselves exposed in transition. Overall, I’m tipping France to edge a low-scoring game, as their big-game pedigree and proven tournament nous come to the fore.

💯 France vs Belgium Betting Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published a diverse range of markets ahead of the clash between France and Belgium, with Les Bleus the pre-game favourites to win. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest prices.

🏅 France vs Belgium: Match Winner

You can back France to defeat Belgium in Düsseldorf at an average price of 1.91. These odds imply a 52.63% of Les Blues prevailing in 90 minutes and advancing to the quarterfinals. As for the Red Devils, they’re priced at around 4.60 to record just their second win in seven attempts against France, suggesting that they have a 21.73% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is priced at 3.20, implying a 31.25% probability of the match being tied during normal time.

Team to win
France to Win	1.91	1.92	1.90	1.92	1.92
Belgium to Win	4.60	4.50	4.60	4.50	4.70
Draw to Win	3.20	3.25	3.10	3.25	3.25

⚽ France vs Belgium: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in four of France’s previous 10 matches (40%). Les Bleus have kept five clean sheets and drawn three blanks during this sequence, including a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands in Group D. Incredibly, both sides have found the net in just two of Belgium’s last 10 games (20%), with the Red Devils keeping seven clean sheets and drawing three blanks (two of which have come in three matches at Euro 2024).

Yes/No
Yes	2.00	2.10	1.96	2.10	2.09
No	1.73	1.71	1.70	1.71	1.75

🥅 France vs Belgium: Over/Under Goals Odds

The previous 10 matches contested by France have yielded a total of 36 goals, at a rate of 3.6 per game. However, nearly half of these came during the stunning 14-0 by Les Bleus over 10-man Gibraltar in qualifying. Otherwise, their last five encounters have produced just six goals at an average of 1.20 per 90 minutes. The last 10 games featuring Belgium have seen a total of 23 goals at a rate of 2.3 per 90. They’ve only conceded six times during this run at an average of 0.6 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	2.25	2.36	2.26	2.36	2.34
Under 2.5 Goals	1.60	1.60	1.59	1.60	1.63

1️⃣ France Update

Despite their struggles and failure to convert chances at Euro 2024, France have now lost just two of their last 17 matches overall. Germany remain the only team to defeat them since December 18th, 2022, when they lost a thrilling World Cup final on penalties to Argentina. This remains their sole competitive defeat in 15 matches, and there’s no doubting Les Bleus’ exceptional defensive organisation and just how tough they are to beat. Bayern centre back Dayot Upamecano has been key to France so far, having recovered 21 balls in total and completed nine of his 12 attempted clearances (75%).

With Mbappe now back in the fold, French manager Didier Deschamps has a fully fit squad to choose from for the match against Belgium. I expect Antoine Griezmann to return to the starting 11 after being rested against Poland, where Les Bleus missed his movement and ability to break lines with his passing (he has completed seven passes into the attacking third at Euro 2024). Aurélien Tchouaméni or Adrien Rabiot will be sacrificed to accommodate his return.

2️⃣ Belgium Update

Slovakia’s 1-0 win over Belgium in their Euro 2024 not only snapped the Red Devils’ 14-match unbeaten run, but it also set the tone for a difficult European Championship campaign so far. However, Domenico Tedesco’s side have only lost one of their last 17 matches in all competitions, since they were stunned by Morocco in the 2022 World Cup group stages in Qatar. Like France, they’ve been defensively resilient during this sequence, keeping 12 clean sheets and stopping their opponents from scoring 70.58% of the time. Leicester City centre back Wout Faes has starred for the Red Devils so far in Germany, winning seven tackles in total and recovering 16 balls.

Although Axel Witsel (adductor injury) and Thomas Meunier (thigh) remain doubts for the match against France, Tedesco will welcome back talented young winger Dodi Lukebakio from suspension. He’s in contention to start too, with Arsenal forward Leandro Trossard completely ineffective against Ukraine. Arthur Theatre is also fit after overcoming a slight thigh injury and is likely to start in Düsseldorf.

👕 France vs Belgium Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.