England vs Slovenia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

england-v-slovenia-euro-prediction england-v-slovenia-euro-prediction
TournamentUEFA Euro 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 25th June 2024
PredictionEngland to Win!
BookmakerDirectionBet Sport
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €140 if England win.

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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.38
Bet €100 and win €138 if England win.
Odds : 1.38
Bet €100 and win €138 if England win.

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england-v-slovenia-euro-prediction england-v-slovenia-euro-prediction

Despite two extremely lacklustre performances against Serbia and Denmark in UEFA European Championship Group C, England remain on the brink of qualification for the round of 16. A point will be enough to book the Three Lions a place in the knockout stages, while a win will secure the top spot in the group. Slovenia, who are the lowest ranked team in Group C, would also qualify with a victory in Cologne. A draw could be enough for Slovenia to progress too, potentially as one of the best third-place nations. But what’s the most likely outcome here, and who are Ireland’s best betting sites backing to win?

🏆 England vs Slovenia Prediction

England’s issues since they kicked off their Euro 2024 campaign have been legion. For example, they’ve generated a cumulative xG of just 1.39 during their first two matches, while striking a paltry 16 shots at goal (only Scotland have attempted fewer). They’ve only managed to launch 75 attacks too, despite averaging 53.5% possession per 90 minutes.

In addition to their lack of attacking cohesion and inability to create meaningful chances, the Three Lions have been disjointed and passive out of possession. Alarmingly, they’ve allowed 23.1 opposition passes per defensive action (PPDA) per 90 in Germany, with only Albania (24) and Romania (28.5) initiating a less effective press during the tournament so far.

The good news for England is that Slovenia have also allowed 22.9 PPDA per 90 minutes, while averaging just 41% possession across their two Group C matches. So, they’re also relatively passive out of possession and largely prefer to play on the break, potentially enabling England to finally get themselves up the pitch and sustain attacks in the final third.

Gareth Southgate is also likely to make changes at the RheinEnergieStadion, with Anthony Gordon, Kobbie Mainoo and Cole Palmer all being slated to potentially make their tournament debuts. Regardless, even a struggling England should have too much for Slovenia, notwithstanding their opponent’s competitive spirit and excellent defensive organisation. This could also be a match that helps the Three Lions to finally create some attacking momentum and confidence in Euro 2024.

My Prediction: England 2 – 0 Slovenia⚽

💯 England vs Slovenia Match Odds

This match should be relatively easy to call, especially when you consider the difference in quality between the two competing sides. However, England’s apparent lack of form and confidence makes them hard to back with confidence in the win market, while this is also impacting alternative lines such as both teams to score and the over/under on total goals scored. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest odds.

🏅 England vs Slovenia: Match Winner

Despite the fallout from their two performances so far, England are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Slovenia in Cologne. In fact, their pre-game odds of 1.38 imply a 72.46% probability of a win for the Three Lions. As for Slovenia, they can be backed to prevail at around 9.00, so they only have an 11.11% chance of beating England for the first time in seven attempts. The draw is the second most likely outcome and priced at 4.75, implying a 21.05% probability of the match ending tied.

Team to Win
England to Win1.401.381.361.381.38
Slovenia to Win9.008.509.008.509.00
Draw to Win4.604.754.704.754.90

⚽ England vs Slovenia: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in just four of England’s previous 10 matches, with Southgate’s charges keeping four clean sheets and failing to score twice (during friendly defeats against Brazil and Iceland). Conversely, both sides have found the net in seven of Slovenia’s last 10 games. The Dragons have struck in every one of these encounters and kept three clean sheets in total.


🥅 England vs Slovenia: Over/Under Goals Odds

The last 10 matches contested by England have produced 21 goals in total, at the modest rate of 2.1 per game. In the case of Slovenia, their previous 10 encounters have yielded 23 goals at the slightly higher average of 2.3 per 90. Intriguingly, the Three Lions are only averaging an xG of 0.69 per game in Euro 2024 so far, compared to 1.23 for Slovenia. So, neither side have been particularly impressive in the attacking third or able to create enough high quality chances at the Euros.

Over 2.5 Goals1.851.901.871.901.91
Under 2.5 Goals1.851.901.871.901.93

✔️ England vs Slovenia Betting Tips

As you can see, the bookies are hedging their bets when it comes to the over/under market on how many goals will be scored in Cologne. However, the odds imply a noticeably higher probability of England winning and both teams not finding the net at the RheinEnergieStadion. But how can you navigate these various markets and make the most of your bankroll?

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: It’s interesting to note that England and Slovenia have mounted a combined total of 142 attacks at Euro 2024 so far, which is fewer than Germany alone (153). Between them, they’ve also accumulated an average xG of just 1.92, with the Three Lions completely devoid of creative inspiration and Slovenia largely content to cede possession and play on the break. I certainly don’t expect a goal fest in Cologne on Tuesday, and there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored at the competitive price of 1.93 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back England to Win and Both Teams Not to Score: Although Slovenia have now scored in 13 consecutive matches since June 2023, they’ve looked limited from an offensive perspective at the Euros so far. Striker Benjamin Šeško has been particularly disappointing, attempting just four shots on goal across his two appearances and completing only two dribbles. England have largely been defensively solid too, with John Stones marshalling the backline well and completing five of his seven clearances. Remember, there’s also a 72.46% probability of the Three Lions prevailing here, so get on them to win and both teams not to score at the enhanced price of 1.92 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back England in the Half-Time/Full-Time Market: In terms of utilising your available free bets, you could consider backing England in the half-time/full-time market. The Three Lions have scored both of their tournament goals before the 19 minute mark, while 13 of their 22 goals in qualifying came during the first 45 minutes of matches (59%). I also expect them to dominate the ball from the outset in Cologne, while you can get on this particular market at a price of 2.00 with Royalist Play Sports.

1️⃣ England Euro Update

England have now won just two of their previous seven matches, with this sequence including the aforementioned defeats against Brazil and Iceland and a disappointing draw in North Macedonia. The Three Lions have only scored eight goals during this relatively poor run of form too, with talisman Harry Kane’s strike against Denmark his first in 2024 and seven matches overall. It’s fair to say that England have had to rely heavily on their defensive players so far in Euro 2024, with Stones and young Marc Guehi standing firm under sustained spells of pressure in both games. The latter has completed four clearances and an impressive 17 ball recoveries during the Championship.

Last 5 Games
England 1
Denmark 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Serbia 0
England 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
England 0
Iceland 1
International Friendly
England 3
Bosnia 0
International Friendly
England 2
Belgium 2
International Friendly

Left back Luke Shaw remains unavailable with a muscle injury, which means that Kieran Trippier is likely to continue at left back despite his questionable performances against Serbia and Denmark. However, the experiment of playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield is expected to be halted, with Kobbie Mainoo and Conor Gallagher both potential replacements. Alternatively, Jude Bellingham could drop back into a number eight role, as Phil Foden shifts inside and either Anthony Gordon or Cole Palmer come into the starting 11.

Player Reason
Luke Shaw Muscle Injury

2️⃣ Slovenia Euro Update

Slovenia’s run of scoring in 13 successive games is impressive, while they’ve struck a total of 26 goals during this sequence at an average of 2.0 per 90 minutes. However, only one of these matches have featured an opponent ranked in the world’s top 20 by FIFA (Portugal), and this was also an international friendly. They’ve certainly found it hard to create chances from open play or sustain attacks at Euro 2024, but the good news for Slovenia is they’ve been defensively well organised by coach Matjaž Kek. The side having attempted a tournament-high 72 clearances and 35 tackles. They’ve also recovered 84 balls, with only Georgia (91) and Austria (88) recovering more.

Last 5 Games
Slovenia 1
Serbia 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Denmark 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Slovenia 1
Bulgaria 1
International Friendly
Slovenia 2
Armenia 1
International Friendly
Slovenia 2
Portugal 0
International Friendly

Slovenia lack the squad depth of most nations at Euro 2024, so head coach Kek is likely to name an unchanged team against the Three Lions in the absence of any injuries or suspensions. This means that the aforementioned Šeško will lead the line once again in Cologne, as he looks to make his mark at the tournament and build on a domestic campaign during which he scored 18 goals for RB Leipzig.

👕 England vs Slovenia Potential Lineups

Pos. England
Goalkeeper J. Pickford J. Oblak Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Walker Z. Karničnik Right Back
Centre Back J. Stones V. Drkušić Centre Back
Centre Back M. Guéhi J. Bijol Centre Back
Left Back K. Trippier E. Janža Left Back
Midfielder J. Bellingham P. Stojanović Right Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice A. Gnezda Čerin Central Midfielder
Midfielder P. Foden T. Elsnik Central Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka J. Mlakar Left Midfielder
Striker H. Kane A. Šporar Striker
Wide Forward A. Gordon B. Šeško Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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