England vs Slovakia Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 30th June 2024
PredictionEngland to Win!
Odds@1.44
BookmakerDirectionBet Sport
The best odds
1.
Bet €100 and win €144 if England win.
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2.
20​BET Sports
Odds : 1.42
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Sportaza
Odds : 1.41
Bet €100 and win €141 if England win.
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Not for the first time during Gareth Southgate’s managerial tenure with England, the Three Lions have benefitted from a favourable draw at the UEFA European Championship. After limping through a group containing three nations outside FIFA’s top 20, they’ve now been drawn against 45th-ranked Slovakia in the round of 16. Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium are all on the opposite side of the draw, too, with Switzerland or Italy waiting for the winner of this match in the quarterfinals. But can England kickstart their Euro 2024 campaign in Gelsenkirchen, or will Slovakia take advantage of the Three Lions’ struggles at the Arena AufSchalke?

🏆 England vs Slovakia Prediction

The stats have laid bare England’s issues in Germany, with Southgate’s team producing the second-highest number of passing sequences involving 10 or more passes (16) at Euro 2024. However, they produced just a single ‘direct’ attack during their three group stage games, ranking 20th out of the 24 competing teams according to this metric.

What’s more, England only managed to accumulate a total xG of 2.26 in the group stage, placing them 19th out of the 24 Euros’ finalists. They also struck just 28 shots on goal and hit the target 10 times, with only four teams faring worse according to both metrics. Clearly, the Three Lions are comfortable when keeping slow and safe possession but struggling to progress the ball and create any kind of sustained attacking threat.

Despite their relatively lowly status, Slovakia accumulated a marginally higher total xG of 2.66 in Group E. They also struck more attempts on goal (37) and hit the target slightly more often (13 times). However, they’ve only averaged 51% possession per 90 (compared to 59.7% for England), and I expect Francesco Calzona’s men to draw their opponents on before hitting them on the break in Gelsenkirchen.

The bad news for Slovakia is that England have been strong defensively, conceding a total xGa of just 1.22 during their three group stage games. It’s, therefore, hard to imagine the Slovakians creating too many meaningful chances during the 90 minutes, while the strength and depth of England’s squad should have enough to get over the line by the odd goal here.

My Prediction: England 1 – 0 Slovakia⚽

💯 England vs Slovakia Match Odds

England’s issues in attack are legion, but despite this, they’re still the outright favourites to win Euro 2024. This is largely due to their favourable draw, which could yet see them reach the final without facing a nation ranked in FIFA’s top 10. This run starts with the clash against Slovakia, but what are the most popular lines and markets here, and how are they currently being priced by best betting sites?

🏅 England vs Slovakia: Match Winner

England are heavy betting favourites in the win market, which may surprise some given their poor performances at the Euros so far. In fact, their average odds of 1.41 imply a 70.92% probability of a victory for the Three Lions at the Arena AufSchalke. As for Slovakia, they can be backed at around 9.00, suggesting that they have just an 11.11% chance of recording their first ever win over England. The draw is priced at 4.33, implying a 23.09% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.

Team
England to Win1.441.411.381.411.42
Slovakia to Win8.509.0010.009.009.00
Draw to Win4.204.334.204.334.40

⚽ England vs Slovakia: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in just four of England’s previous 10 encounters (40%). The Three Lions have kept four clean sheets during this sequence and drawn three blanks (including two in their last five outings). Both sides have found the net in five of Slovakia’s last 10 matches (50%), with the ‘Falcons’ keeping four clean sheets and failing to score just once.

Yes/No
Yes2.302.502.432.502.50
No1.571.501.461.501.53

🥅 England vs Slovakia: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

England’s previous 10 matches have produced just 20 goals in total, at a rate of 2.0 per game. The Three Lions have scored just 13 of these goals at an average of 1.3 per 90 minutes and only struck seven times in their last seven outings. Slovakia’s last 10 fixtures have yielded 28 goals at the much higher rate of 2.8 per 90, with Calzona’s side scoring 19 times during this run at an average of 1.9 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.052.142.072.142.14
Under 2.5 Goals1.701.711.711.711.75

✔️ England vs Slovakia - Betting Tips

Many punters may balk at England’s incredibly short price, especially given their current form and the way in which Slovakia defeated Belgium in their Group E opener. However, there are plenty of other markets that you can explore here, while combination wagering may also enable you to create enhanced value. Here are some tips to keep in mind:

  • Tip 1: Back England to Win with Under 2.5 Goals: For all of England’s struggles (especially in the attacking third), they still boast exceptional individual quality and managed to top Group C undefeated. They’ve also failed to beat Slovakia only once in six attempts (at Euro 2016). The subsequent three head-to-head meetings have only produced four goals too, while England and Slovakia averaged respective xG values of 0.75 and 0.88 per 90 during the group stages. So, there’s considerable value in backing England to win with under 2.5 goals scored at the enhanced price of 2.85 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Cole Palmer as an Anytime Goalscorer: Cole Palmer’s excellent cameo off the bench against Slovenia may compel Southgate to name him in his starting 11 here, possibly in place of Bukayo Saka or Phil Foden. He certainly excelled for both Manchester City and Chelsea in the 2023/24 campaign, contributing 27 goals and 15 assists in just 48 appearances in all competitions. Palmer’s ability to find pockets of space and unerring eye for goal could prove pivotal against Slovakia’s compact defensive block, so get on him as an anytime scorer at a price of 3.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back England to Win by a Single Goal: If you want to utilise one of your available free bets, you can also engage in winning margin betting. It’s certainly hard to imagine a big England win or goal fest at the Arena AufSchalke, especially given both teams’ respective group stage performances and Slovakia’s ability to defend deep and restrict their opponents’ space. Phil Foden may also miss out for England after flying home to attend the birth of his third child, so get on the Three Lions to win by a single goal at the competitive price of 3.35 with Royalist Play Sports.

1️⃣ England Update

England have now won just one of their previous four matches and two of their last eight overall, scoring a paltry eight goals during this sequence. They’ve certainly hit a dreadful run of form at the worst possible time, while they’ve appeared tactically confused and lacking in attacking cohesion since the first game of the tournament. However, the second half introductions of Palmer, Anthony Gordon and Kobbie Mainoo improved the Three Lions markedly against Slovenia, with the latter helping to progress the ball quicker through midfield. In just 37 minutes of tournament play, Mainoo has completed 35 of his 37 passes (97%) and made two key passes in total.

Last 5 Games
England 0
Slovenia 0
25.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Denmark 1
England 1
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
Serbia 0
England 1
16.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group C
England 0
Iceland 1
07.06.24
International Friendly
England 3
Bosnia 0
03.06.24
International Friendly

As I’ve touched on, Foden has flown home to attend the birth of his child, and Southgate may take this opportunity to shake up his starting 11. Anthony Gordon may replace Foden on the left, while the excellent Kobbie Mainoo is expected to come in for Conor Gallagher in the midfield engine room. If Southgate does look to make room for Palmer, either Jude Bellingham or Bukayo Saka may be rested. Left back Luke Shaw is finally fit after recovering from a muscle injury, but may not be ready to start in Gelsenkirchen.

Player Reason
Phil Foden Personal reasons

2️⃣ Slovakia Update

Since a thrilling but ultimately disappointing 3-2 defeat to Portugal in Porto on October 13th, 2023, Slovakia have only lost two of their subsequent 10 matches. This sequence has seen them defeat Wales and Belgium in their Group E opener at Euro 2024, while they’ve also earned credible and competitive draws against Norway and Romania. They’ve only conceded nine goals during this run at an average of 0.9 per 90 minutes, with Napoli midfielder Stanislav Lobotka playing a pivotal role at both ends of the pitch. He has completed 172 of his 184 passes (93%) at Euro 2024 while recovering 20 balls in total.

Last 5 Games
Slovakia 1
Romania 1
26.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Slovakia 1
Ukraine 2
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 0
Slovakia 1
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Slovakia 4
Wales 0
09.06.24
International Friendly
Slovakia 4
San Marino 0
05.06.24
International Friendly

Slovakia boss Calzona has only made one change during the tournament, replacing striker Robert Bozenik with David Strelec against Romania. It’s unclear whether Bozenik will return to the starting 11 against England. Midfielder Ondrej Duda left the field early against Romania after suffering with cramp, but although he may have to be assessed prior to kick off at the Arena AufSchalke, he’s widely expected to keep his place in the team.

Player Reason
Ondrej Duda Muscle Injury

👕 England vs Slovakia Potential Lineups

Pos. England
4-2-3-1
Slovakia
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Pickford M. Dúbravka Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Walker P. Pekarík Right Back
Centre Back J. Stones D. Vavro Centre Back
Centre Back M. Guéhi M. Škriniar Centre Back
Left Back K. Trippier D. Hancko Left Back
Midfielder D. Rice J. Kucka Midfielder
Midfielder K. Mainoo S. Lobotka Midfielder
Midfielder J. Bellingham O. Duda Midfielder
Wide Forward C. Palmer I. Schranz Wide Forward
Striker H. Kane R. Boženík Striker
Wide Forward A. Gordon L. Haraslín Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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