Croatia vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 24th June 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds@3.33
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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croatia-v-italy-euro-prediction croatia-v-italy-euro-prediction

Group B in the 2024 UEFA European Championship will come to a thrilling conclusion on Monday, with both Italy and Croatia in need of a positive result if they’re to progress to the round of 16. However, Italy only need a point to qualify courtesy of their 2-1 victory over Albania in their tournament opener, while Croatia have to beat the Azzurri to have any chance of success. This will undoubtedly be a tight and tense encounter at the Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, but which side will ultimately get the result that they need? Here’s my take on an analysis of the competing teams!

🏆 Croatia vs Italy Prediction

Although Italy demonstrated resilience and some attacking fluidity to defeat Albania in their first Group B game, they were surprisingly passive during their 1-0 loss against Spain on Thursday. Of course, this had something to do with the excellence of the Spanish, but the Italians only accumulated an xG of 0.18 during the 90 minutes and mustered just a single shot on target in Gelsenkirchen.

Although Croatia have just a single point after two matches, their main issue has been converting their dominance into goals. They’ve struck 36 shots at goal during these games (only Germany have attempted more at Euro 2024), while Croatia average 57.5% possession per 90 minutes. Their xG of 2.74 against Albania was also the highest produced in a single match at the tournament, although they had to settle for a 2-2 draw in Hamburg.

I also expect Croatia to force the pace here, especially as they need a win to have any chance of making the last 16. They’ll also need to better Albania’s result against Spain ideally, as they’re currently level on points with Sylvinho’s team and have an inferior goal difference. However, Italy should have more joy in attacking transition than they had against Spain, creating a potentially fascinating and evenly poised contest.

Italy have also performed generally well defensively in Germany, recovering 65 balls across their two matches so far and winning 13 tackles (only Denmark have won more). So, unless Croatia can become more ruthless in front of goal, I expect Italy to claim a point here and qualify in second place from Group B.

My Prediction: 🏆Croatia 1 – 1 Italy⚽

💯 Croatia vs Italy Match Odds

You’ll find plenty of intriguing lines and markets available ahead of the match between Croatia and Italy, especially when wagering with one of Ireland’s best betting sites. But what are the most popular and rewarding markets, and how are these entities currently being priced?

🏅 Croatia vs Italy: Match Winner

The win market is quite evenly poised here, although Italy are the narrow favourites at average odds of 2.37. This implies a 42.19% probability of a victory for Luciano Spalletti’s team. As for Croatia, they can be backed at around 3.10, suggesting that they have a 32.25% chance of prevailing and remaining competitive in the tournament. The draw is priced at 3.20, implying a 31.25% probability of the match ending tied as I’ve predicted.

Team to Win
Croatia to Win3.103.103.003.103.20
Italy to Win2.402.332.402.332.37
Draw to Win3.203.333.203.333.30

⚽ Croatia vs Italy: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in four of Croatia’s previous 10 matches, with Zlatko Dalić’s side keeping a total of four clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions (including their 2024 tournament opener against Spain). Interestingly, both sides have also found the net in four of Italy’s last 10 games. The Azzurri have kept five clean sheets during this sequence and drawn three blanks.

Yes/No
Yes1.701.711.641.711.71
No2.052.102.042.102.15

🥅 Croatia vs Italy: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Croatia’s last 10 matches have also yielded a total of 26 goals, at a rate of 2.6 per game. They’ve scored 16 of these goals at a modest average of 1.6 per 90 minutes. Conversely, Italy’s previous 10 encounters have produced 25 goals at a rate of 2.5 per 90, with the Azzurri conceding eight times at an average of just 0.8 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.911.931.911.931.92
Under 2.5 Goals1.801.871.831.871.92

✔️ Croatia vs Italy - Betting Tips

As you can see, there are a number of interesting and evenly priced markets pertaining to the clash between Croatia and Italy. But which of these offer the most value? Here are some expert betting tips and insights that can help you to make the most of your real money bankroll and claimed free bets.

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: Croatia’s two Euro 2024 matches so far have seen them produce a cumulative xG of 5.12. Despite this, they’ve only managed to score twice, highlighting a significant shortfall in their ability to convert chances. Italy’s cumulative xG against Albania and Spain was just 1.78, and while they’ve outperformed this slightly, they’ve struggled to create high quality chances. Because of this and what’s at stake in the game, there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored here at the competitive price of 1.92 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Croatia to Have Over 14.5 Shots: Despite a slow start against Albania, Croatia had 22 attempts on goal against Albania, with half-time substitute Luka Sučić adding some creativity and impetus in the attacking third. They’ve struck 36 shots in total at an average of 18 per 90 minutes, and may well have to force the game against Italy at times due to their need to win. So, notwithstanding their failure to convert a high percentage of their chances, there’s value in backing them to have over 14.5 shots in the game at a price of 3.10 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the Draw: The pre-game odds imply a 31.25% probability of the match between Croatia and Italy ending in a draw. This figure is noticeably high, with an average of between 22.1% and 25% of football matches ending in draws (depending on the precise competition). This reflects the evenly matched nature of the teams and their respective deficiencies in the final third, while it must be remembered that Italy only need a point to qualify for he last 16. You can back the draw here at a price of 3.33 with Sportaza Sports

1️⃣ Croatia Update

Despite their issues at both ends of the pitch during Euro 2024, Croatia have actually played relatively well and created plenty of chances against their opponents. This trend has been prevalent for a while now, as they’ve won just five of their last 10 matches and only managed to scored 16 goals during this sequence. They’ve conceded 11 times during this run, too, but a tally of four clean sheets demonstrates their ability to defend well on occasions. Veteran midfielder Luka Modric will once again play a key role in all facets of the game against Italy, having completed 142 of his 163 passes (88%) in Euro 2024 so far and recovered a total of four balls.

Last 5 Games
Croatia 2
Albania 2
19.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 3
Croatia 0
15.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Portugal 1
Croatia 2
08.06.24
International Friendly
Croatia 3
North Macedonia 0
03.06.24
International Friendly
Egypt 2
Croatia 4
26.03.24
International Friendly

Croatia had no new injuries to report ahead of the draw against Albania, although Nikola Vlašić is likely to remain absent with an adductor injury. However, I expect Borna Sosa to replace Ivan Perisic at left back, after the veteran struggled to cope during defensive phases. Ante Budimir also made a case to start after producing an impressive cameo and assist from the bench last time out. Luka Sučić could start, too, after having a positive impact from the bench against Albania.

Player Reason
Nikola Vlašić Adductor Injury

2️⃣ Italy Update

Italy are notoriously slow starters at major tournaments, and Euro 2024 has been no exception to this rule. They’ve been particularly sluggish in the attacking third so far, managing just 20 shots (and six on target) during their two matches to date. However, they once again have their fate in their own hands against Croatia, with a win or a draw enough to secure a second place finish in Leipzig. Their defeat against Spain was also their first in eight matches overall, since a 3-1 loss to England at Wembley on October 17th, 2023. The Italians have only conceded five goals during this sequence too, so they’ll be tough to break down here.

Last 5 Games
Spain 1
Italy 0
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Italy 2
Albania 1
15.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Italy 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
09.06.24
International Friendly
Italy 0
Turkey 0
04.06.24
International Friendly
Ecuador 0
Italy 2
24.03.24
International Friendly

Italy named an unchanged side against Spain, but Spalletti may be tempted to make changes after his team’s listless display. While striker Gianluca Scamacca has produced some nice link up play so far, he has yet to offer a cutting edge and could be replaced by Napoli’s Giacomo Raspadori. Mateo Retegui may also offer an option from the bench. The Azzurri have no injury concerns to report.

Player Reason

👕 Croatia vs Italy Potential Lineups

Pos. Croatia
4-2-3-1
Italy
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Livaković G. Donnarumma Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Juranović G. Di Lorenzo Right Back
Centre Back J. Sutalo A. Bastoni Centre Back
Centre Back J. Gvardiol R. Calafiori Centre Back
Left Back B. Sosa F. Dimarco Left Back
Midfielder L. Modric N. Barella Midfielder
Midfielder M. Brozovic Jorginho Midfielder
Midfielder L. Sučić D. Frattesi Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Majer F. Chiesa Wide Forward
Striker A. Kramaric G. Raspadori Striker
Wide Forward A. Budimir L. Pellegrini Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile Lewis-Humphreys-author-profile

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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