Croatia vs Albania | Euro 2024 Prediction
| Timetable | 15:00 GMT 19th June 2024 |
| Prediction | Croatia to Win! |
| Odds | @1.53 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Both of these teams started their 2024 UEFA European Championship campaigns with defeat, with Croatia thumped 3-0 by Spain and Albania losing 2-1 against Italy despite taking an early lead. Make no mistake; neither side can afford to slip up again at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg, even with the four best performing third place teams in the group stage qualifying for the round of 16. Of course, Croatia’s experience and quality means that they’ll start as favourites against Albania, but Sylvinho’s men showcased plenty of courage and restricted Italy to an xG of just 1.6 in their opener. This could well be a relatively tight and nervy game, but who do I think will prevail here?
🏆 Croatia vs Albania Prediction
While Spain ran out comfortable winners against the Croats in Berlin, Zlatko Dalić’s side were far more competitive than the 3-0 scoreline suggests. In fact, they produced a higher xG than their opponents during the 90 minutes (2.67 vs 2.00), while completing more passes (528) at a higher success rate (88%).
However, Croatia were undone by wasteful finishing and an inability to deal with Spain’s surprisingly direct playing style, which was characterised by quick switches of play and the direct running of the 16-year-old Lamine Yamal. He completed five dribbles during the 90 minutes and gave Manchester City’s Joško Gvardiol a torrid time at left back.
The good news is that Croatia are unlikely to face the same attacking threat against Albania, who only saw 31% of the ball against Italy and attempted just a single shot on target. This should enable the midfield pair of Luka Modric and Marcelo Brozović to control both possession and the tempo of the game, with the latter having completed 63 of his 66 passes (95%) against Spain.
This will lay a foundation for Croatian dominance, and I expect them to be a little more clinical with the chances they create in Hamburg. So, although neither side was prolific during qualifying and this could well be a low-scoring game, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a maiden Group B win for Croatia.
My Prediction: 🏆Croatia 2 – 0 Albania⚽
💯 Croatia vs Albania Match Odds
Ireland’s best betting sites are offering a huge array of markets ahead of the clash between Croatia and Albania, including popular staples such as the match winner, both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored at the Volksparkstadion. Let’s take a look at the latest odds!
🏅 Croatia vs Albania: Match Winner
You can back Croatia to defeat Albania at around 1.49, with these odds implying a 67.11% probability of this outcome occurring. As for Albania, you can bet on them to prevail at 7.00, suggesting that they only have a 14.28% chance of emerging victorious in Hamburg. The draw is priced at an average of 4.50, implying a 22.22% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.
| Team to Win |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to Win | 1.53 | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| Albania to Win | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Draw to Win | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
⚽ Croatia vs Albania: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Nedim Bajrami’s goal for Albania against Italy came after just 23 seconds, and is the fastest ever goal scored at the European Championships. This means that they’ve now scored in seven of their last 10 matches overall, although both sides have found the net in just three of these fixtures. Interestingly, both teams have scored in just three of Croatia’s previous 10 matches too, with Dalić’s men keeping five clean sheets during this sequence.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.07 | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| No | 1.73 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.64 |
🥅 Croatia vs Albania: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The last 10 matches contested by Croatia have also produced a total of 23 goals, at a rate of 2.30 per game. The Croats have scored 14 of these goals at a rate of 1.40 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Albania’s previous 10 encounters have produced the exact same number of goals, although they’ve scored slightly more than their opponents (15) at a rate of 1.50 per 90.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.80 | 1.81 | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.81 |
✔️ Croatia vs Albania - Betting Tips
While the win market may be appealing here, given the implied probability of a Croatian win, you’ll this will only deliver a nominal return in relation to your stake. However, you can explore several other team and player markets ahead of this match, while combination betting may also help you to create additional value here.
- Tip 1: Back Croatia to win and Both Teams Not to Score: Croatia are the deserved favourites here, especially given their superior quality and the fact that Albania are appearing in just their fourth European Championship finals match. The odds also imply a 60.97% probability of both teams not scoring in Hamburg, with Albania in particular lacking a potent or proven goalscorer at this level. Albania also produced an xG of just 0.46 against the Italians, so consider getting on Croatia to win and both teams not to score at a price of 2.05 with Sportaza Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The bookies appear to be slightly split when it comes to the over/under on total goals. There’s good reason for this too, with the previous 20 matches contested by both teams having produced a combined total of 46 goals at a rate of 2.30 per 90 minutes. Croatia also struggled to convert their chances against the Spaniards, while Albania’s only shot on target (and goal) against Italy resulted from a defensive error. On balance, there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored here at a price of 1.81 with 20BET Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Croatia to Win with a -1.75 Goal Handicap: In terms of optimising any free bets that you may have, you may want to consider backing Croatia to win with a nominal handicap. This reflects the perceived difference in quality between the two teams, as well as the fact that Croatia are likely to dominate possession and limit Albania’s attacking opportunities. We’d recommend getting on Croatia to win with a handicap of -1.75 goals at the enhanced price of 2.75 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Croatia Update
Croatia’s approach play and control of the ball was excellent (if a little ponderous) at times against Spain, but they struggled with efficiency at both ends of the pitch. For example, only two sides attempted more shots on goal than Croatia’s 16 in the opening round of fixtures, but just five found the target during the 90 minutes. Still, the team remains in good form overall, with the defeat to Spain their first in seven matches since they lost in Wales on October 15th, 2023. They’ve also kept four clean sheets during this sequence and usually defend better than they did against Luis de la Fuente’s men.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Spain 3 Croatia 0 | 15.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Portugal 1 Croatia 2 | 08.06.24 International Friendly |
| Croatia 3 North Macedonia 0 | 03.06.24 International Friendly |
| Egypt 2 Croatia 4 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
| Tunisia 0 Croatia 0 | 23.03.24 International Friendly |
Nikola Vlašić is continuing to struggle with an adductor injury, so is unlikely to contend for a starting place against Albania. However, veteran winger Ivan Perisic made his return from an ACL injury when he came off the bench against Spain, and could force his way into manager Zlatko Dalić’s plans as Croatia look to play with a little more speed and purpose.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Nikola Vlašić | Adductor Injury |
2️⃣ Albania Update
Albania’s record-breaking goal against the Italians certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons, but the Azzurri recovered well to dominate the ball and ultimately prevail. By the end of the 90 minutes, Albania had only recorded 34% possession and attempted a meagre 382 passes, while their tally of a single shot on target highlighted how toothless they were once Italy took charge. Albania also initiated just 16 attacks and completed only two dribbles during the 90 minutes. All this means that Albania have now only won two of their previous seven matches overall, including the final two rounds of an unusually successful qualification campaign.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Italy 2 Albania Islands 1 | 15.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Albania 3 Azerbaijan 1 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Albania 3 Liechtenstein 0 | 03.06.24 International Friendly |
| Sweden 1 Albania 0 | 25.03.24 International Friendly |
| Albania 0 Chile 3 | 22.03.24 International Friendly |
While Albania haven’t reported any injuries after the defeat against Italy, coach Sylvinho may make one or two offensive changes for the Croatia game. More specifically, Qazim Laçi and Rey Manaj are being tipped to start ahead of Taulant Seferi and Armando Broja, with the latter failing to have a single shot against the Italians and attempting just 12 passes in total.
| Player | Reason |
|---|
👕 Croatia vs Albania Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Croatia 4-3-3 | Albania 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | D. Livaković | T. Strakosha | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Stanišić | E. Hysaj | Right Back |
| Centre Back | J. Šutalo | A. Ajeti | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | M. Pongračić | B. Djimsiti | Centre Back |
| Left Back | J. Gvardiol | M. Mitaj | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Kovacic | Y. Ramadani | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | M. Brozović | K. Asllani | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | L. Modric | N. Bajrami | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | L. Majer | J. Asani | Wide Forward |
| Striker | A. Kramarić | R. Manaj | Striker |
| Wide Forward | I. Perisic | Qazim Laçi | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
