Belgium vs Romania | Euro 2024 Prediction
| Timetable | 21:00 GMT 22nd June 2024 |
| Prediction | Belgium to Win! |
| Odds | @1.50 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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Belgium were the victims of the first shock at the 2024 UEFA European Championship, as wasteful finishing and a dose of VAR controversy saw them lose 1-0 to Slovakia. Conversely, the Romanians were superb against Ukraine in their Group E opener, delivering an exceptional display of counterattacking football to win 3-0. So, the Red Devils need a positive result here to boost their chances of reaching the last 16, while a draw or win for the Romanians would put them on the cusp of knockout football for the first time since Euro 2000. But which side will triumph in Cologne, and who are the best betting sites in Ireland picking to win?
🏆 Belgium vs Romania Prediction
Romania’s win over Ukraine was only their second in 17 attempts in the European Championship finals, while it was built on some exceptional play in attacking transition. In fact, they only had 34% possession in Munich and mounted just 26 attacks (compared to 66 for their opponents), but managed more attempts on target (five vs two) and were clinical in the final third.
As for the Belgians, they found themselves in a closer-than-expected match against Slovakia, who are ranked 44 places below their opponents. In fact, they barely shaded possession and launched just seven more attacks than Slovakia during the 90 minutes, while their cumulative xG of 1.70 doesn’t suggest that they were overly dominant.
However, they still managed to carve out five big chances in Frankfurt (compared to one for Slovakia), and only wasteful finishing prevented them from securing at least a point. The luckless Romelu Lukaku also had two strikes disallowed by the VAR, with the second particularly contentious after his 86th-minute goal was ruled out for an earlier handball by Lois Openda.
The good news for Belgium is that Lukaku has an impressive 85 goals in his 116 international caps, and 11 in major tournament finals. They also boast significant firepower in the form of Jermey Doku, Leandro Trossard and Openda, and I expect them to be far more clinical at the RheinEnergieStadion. Romania can ill afford to let Belgium have as much of the ball as they allowed Ukraine either, so I’m tipping the Red Devils to get their Euro 2024 campaign up and running here.
My Prediction: Belgium 2 – 1 Romania⚽
💯 Belgium vs Romania Match Odds
There will be a great deal of betting interest in this match, especially after the results in the opening Group E fixtures. Of particular interest will be the win market, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in Cologne. But how are each of these markets currently being priced?
🏅 Belgium vs Romania: Match Winner
The Belgians are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Romania, who sit 43 places below the Red Devils in FIFA’s latest rankings. They’re priced at 1.46 to prevail, implying a 68.49% probability of a win for Domenico Tedesco’s men. As for Romania, they can be backed at around 7.00 to triumph at the RheinEnergieStadion, so they only have a 14.28% chance of success. The draw is priced at 4.33, implying a 23.09% probability of the game ending in a tie.
| Team to Win |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to Win | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| Romania to Win | 7.00 | 6.50 | 7.25 | 6.50 | 7.00 |
| Draw to Win | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.70 |
⚽ Belgium vs Romania: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in just two of Belgium’s last 10 matches overall. The Red Devils have kept an impressive seven clean sheets during this sequence and failed to score twice (against Ireland and Slovakia last time out). Romania are also defensively resolute, with both sides finding the net in just three of their previous 10 games. They’ve also kept seven clean sheets in total, while drawing three blanks during this run.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.91 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.95 |
| No | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.87 |
🥅 Belgium vs Romania: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Belgium’s last 10 matches have also yielded a total of 27 goals, at a rate of 2.7 per game. Unsurprisingly, the Belgians have scored the majority of these goals, hitting 23 at an average of 2.3 per 90 minutes. Romania’s previous 10 encounters have produced 20 goals at the much lower rate of 2.0 per 90. They’ve conceded just five times during this run at a paltry average of 0.5 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.08 | 2.14 |
✔️ Belgium vs Romania - Betting Tips
While the pre-game pricing implies a strong probability of a Belgian win here, the moneyline odds are prohibitive unless you wager with a huge stake. So, you may want to explore alternative markets and betting lines, especially even money options such as BTTS and totals. Here are some betting tips to help identify the best value markets.
- Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The odds also imply a slightly higher probability of both teams not scoring in Cologne. However, despite the defensive strength of these sides, it should be noted that Romania have scored in seven of their previous 10 games (70%) and all but two of their 10 Euro 2024 qualifiers. They were also clinical against Ukraine, while Belgium will surely not be as wasteful as they were against Slovakia. They’ve failed to score in just two of their last 14 matches, too. So, get on both teams to score here at the competitive price of 1.95 with Sportaza Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Leandro Trossard as an Anytime Goalscorer: Although I expect Belgium to score against Romania, space may be at a premium for the Red Devils’ forward line. However, this will suit players like Leandro Trossard, who will look to find pockets of space in between Romania’s midfield and defence and make timely runs into the box. Trossard also has nine goals in just 35 appearances for the Belgian national team, while he struck 17 times for Arsenal in 2023/24 despite not being a regular starter. You can back him as an anytime scorer here at a price of 3.14 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Belgium in the Half-Time/Full-Time Market: If you have one or more free bets on your account, consider backing Belgium in the half-time/full-time market. I expect Tedesco’s team to start fast after their defeat against Slovakia, while Youri Tielemans could also come into the starting 11 and add some guile in the middle of the park. Belgium also scored 12 of their 22 goals in qualifying during the first 45 minutes of games (54.54%) while only conceding twice during this period. You can get on the Red Devils to lead at half and full-time at a price of 1.98 with 20BET Sports.
1️⃣ Belgium Update
Belgium’s shock defeat to Slovakia in their Group E opener snapped a 14-match unbeaten run for the Red Devils, which dated back to a similarly surprising 2-0 reversal to Morocco in the group stages of the 2022 World Cup. This unbeaten sequence included all eight of Belgium’s Euro 2024 qualifiers, which saw the Belgians score 22 goals and concede just four times. Against Romania, Manchester City winger Jeremy Doku may play a key role in Belgium’s ability to create chances. After all, he completed an impressive six dribbles against Slovakia while also playing three key passes and making six runs into the opposition’s penalty area.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Belgium 0 Slovakia 1 | 17.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E |
| Belgium 3 Luxembourg 0 | 08.06.24 International Friendly |
| Belgium 2 Montenegro 0 | 05.06.24 International Friendly |
| England 2 Belgium 2 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
| Ireland 0 Belgium 0 | 23.03.24 International Friendly |
Three of Belgium’s 26-man squad continue to struggle with injury, including Thomas Meunier (thigh) and Axel Witsel (adductor). Jan Vertonghen is recovering from a groin strain, but could be contention to face Romania. As I’ve touched on, Aston Villa midfielder Youri Tielemans could replace Orel Mangala in the centre of the park, as he’ll bring a little more craft and composure in possession.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Axel Witsel | Adductor Injury |
| Jan Vertonghen | Groin Injury |
| Thomas Meunier | Thigh Injury |
2️⃣ Romania Update
Romania were incredibly efficient and clinical in attacking the transition against Ukraine, with their pace and movement in the final third particularly striking. Winger Dennis Man produced the stand out individual performance during the first round of group stage fixtures here, scoring once and assisting further goals for Nicolae Stanciu and striker Denis Dragus. Man also completed four dribbles and made three key passes in Munich. From a collective perspective, Romania have only lost one of their previous 16 matches overall, while they haven’t been beaten in a competitive fixture since Montenegro defeated them 3-0 in Bucharest on June 14th, 2022.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Romania 3 Ukraine 0 | 17.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E |
| Romania 0 Liechtenstein 0 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Romania 0 Bulgaria 0 | 04.06.24 International Friendly |
| Colombia 3 Romania 2 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
| Romania 1 Northern Ireland 1 | 22.03.24 International Friendly |
Centre-back Andrei Burcă is now fully recovered from a muscle tear and started the 3-0 win over Ukraine. Romania are also likely to field an unchanged lineup against Belgium, although Parma winger Valentin Mihaila may replace Florinel Coman on the left flank after an impressive cameo from the bench. Interestingly, forward Dennis Man is one booking away from suspension, so he’ll be walking a tightrope as the match in Cologne progresses.
👕 Belgium vs Romania Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Belgium 4-3-3 | Romania 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | K. Casteels | F. Niță | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | T. Castagne | A. Ratiu | Right Back |
| Centre Back | W. Faes | R. Drăgușin | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Z. Debast | A. Burcă | Centre Back |
| Left Back | A. Theate | N. Bancu | Left Back |
| Midfielder | J. Tielemans | M. Marin | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Onana | Răzvan Marin | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | K. De Bruyne | N. Stanciu | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | L. Trossard | D. Man | Wide Forward |
| Striker | R. Lukaku | D. Dragus | Striker |
| Wide Forward | J. Doku | V. Mihăilă | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
