Austria vs Turkiye Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

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TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable21:00 GMT 2nd July 2024
PredictionAustria to win!
BookmakerDirectionBet Sport
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €200 if Austria win.

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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.00
Bet €100 and win €200 if Austria win.
Odds : 2.00
Bet €100 and win €200 if Austria win.

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Ralf Ragnick’s industrious Austria side have been one of the standout teams at the 2024 UEFA European Championship, having topped Group D ahead of the Netherlands and 2022 World Cup finalists France. Turkey have also played with verve and aggression under head coach Vincenzo Montella, beating Georgia and the Czech Republic while attempting an impressive 50 shots on goal across their three group stage games. Make no mistake: this could be the most open and entertaining of all round-of-16 matches, but which side is likely to prevail in Leipzig? Here’s my take and the latest odds from Ireland’s best betting sites!

🏆 Austria vs Turkey Prediction

Although Turkey have attempted 50 shots on goal during Euro 2024, just 16 have found the target (32%). The Turks also underperformed their xG of 5.28 by -0.28 goals. Conversely, Austria have hit the target with 17 of their 31 goal attempts (54.83%) and accumulated a tournament xG of 3.68, outperforming this value by an impressive +2.32 goals.

Clearly, ‘Das Team’ have showcased more ruthlessness and efficiency in front of goal than their opponents, while the quality of their press has also been superior. To this end, they’ve now recovered 132 balls (the most of any team to have played just three games at the tournament), compared to 108 for the Turks. So, despite regularly looking to press high, Turkey have occasionally been a little too open and easy to play through.

This could prove costly against Austria, who will be happy to draw Turkey onto them at times before counter-pressing aggressively and attacking the space left behind. For their part, Turkey will be happy to commit men forward and run at the Austrian defence, having already completed 53 dribbles during the tournament.

Overall, I’m expecting an end-to-end encounter at the Red Bull Arena, with neither side likely to take a backward step, given the open nature of the Euro 2024 draw. This could well lead to the highest-scoring game of the tournament’s knockout stages, while I’m tipping Austria to prevail by the odd goal in normal time.

My Prediction: Austria 3 – 2 Turkey⚽

💯 Austria vs Turkey Betting Odds

This is undoubtedly one of the toughest round-of-16 matches to call at Euro 2024, although Austria are the pre-game favourites in the win market. You can also bet on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes in Leipzig. Here’s my analysis of these markets and how they’re currently being priced.

🏅 Austria vs Turkey Prediction: Match Winner

You can back Austria to beat Turkey at an average price of 2.00, with these odds implying a 50% probability of a victory for Ralf Rangnick’s charges. As for Turkey, they’re priced at around 4.10 to defeat Das Team for just second time since 2011, suggesting that they have a 24.39% chance of achieving this goal. The draw is priced at 3.33, implying a 30.03% probability of the match ending tied after 90 minutes.

Austria to Win2.002.001.952.001.99
Turkey to Win4.
Draw to Win3.303.333.253.333.45

⚽ Austria vs Turkey: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in five of Austria’s last 10 matches overall (50%). Ragnick’s team have kept four clean sheets during this sequence, although none of these have been recorded in their last six games. They’ve only drawn a single blank against France too. Both sides have found the next in six of Turkey’s previous 10 matches (60%), with Montella’s men keeping just two clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions.


🥅 Austria vs Turkey: Over/Under Goals Odds

Austria’s last 10 matches have yielded a total of 29 goals at a rate of 2.9 per game. Austria have scored 22 of these goals at an average of 2.20 per 90 minutes, including a 6-1 thrashing of Turkey in Vienna on March 26th. Turkey’s previous 10 encounters have subsequently produced 32 goals at a rate of 3.2 per 90, although they’ve conceded 17 times during this sequence at an average of 1.7 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.851.931.871.931.90
Under 2.5 Goals1.851.871.871.871.94

✔️ Austria vs Turkey Betting Tips

There are plenty of enticing betting lines and markets pertaining to the clash between Austria and Turkey. But which of these offer the most value? Here are some key betting tips and insights to help you get the most from your real money bankroll and available free bets!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: The last 20 matches featuring either Austria and Turkey have yielded 61 goals in total, at a rate of 3.05 per 90 minutes. This sequence also includes an international friendly between these two sides at Vienna’s Ernst-Happel-Stadion, which saw Das Team run out 6-1 winners in front of their own fans. This will be an open game too, with Austria having launched 123 attacks so far and Turkey averaging 16.6 shots on goal per 90 at Euro 2024. So, consider betting on over 3.5 goals being scored in Leipzig at the competitive price of 3.20 with 20BET Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back Christoph Baumgartner as an Anytime Goalscorer: Although Christoph Baumgartner was rested against the Dutch last time out, the in-form RB Leipzig forward stepped off the bench to superbly assist Marcel Sabitzer’s late winner. He found the net superbly against Poland too, while he now has six goals in his previous eight international appearances (including a strike during the recent 6-1 thrashing of Turkey in Vienna). Baumgartner will also be playing in his home stadium in the round of 16, so get on him as an anytime scorer at the highly competitive price of 3.40 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Austria to Score Over 2.5 Goals: Austria have scored six goals during the tournament so far (against Poland and the Netherlands), while their previous 10 matches have seen them hit 22 goals at a rate of 2.2 per 90 minutes. As I’ve touched on, Turkey have also been open and occasionally inefficient in their press, conceding a total xGa of 4.92 during Euro 2024. Rangnick’s team are ideally placed to capitalize on this vulnerability, especially having hit their round of 16 opponents for six in March. So, get on Austria to score over 2.5 goals by themselves at a price of 3.92 with RoyalistPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Austria Update

Incredibly, Austria have found the net in 19 of their previous 20 matches, since a 2-0 reversal to France in the Nations League on September 22nd, 2022. Les Blues are the only side to stop Austria from scoring since June 2022, when Das Team lost 2-0 to Denmark in Copenhagen. The Austrians have scored 41 times during this sequence, while only incurring defeats against France, Belgium and Croatia. This run also seen Ragnick’s side defeat Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, so they’re well-placed to go deep in Euro 2024. Versatile full back Alexander Prass has become a key player for Austria in recent times, contributing two assists in the tournament so far and recovering nine balls in total.

Last 5 Games
Netherlands 2
Austria 3
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Poland 1
Austria 3
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Austria 0
France 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group D
Switzerland 1
Austria 1
International Friendly
Austria 2
Serbia 1
International Friendly

Baumgartner will return to the starting 11 at the Red Bull Arena, especially with winger Patrick Wimmer suspended. Konrad Laimer should also return to midfield, although he’ll have to contend with Romano Schmid (who scored superbly against the Netherlands). I expect the experienced Marko Arnautovic to continue to lead the line for Das Team, while Kevin Danso could replace Philipp Lienhart at centre back. Fellow defender Gernot Trauner will be assessed as he recovers from a muscle complaint.

Player Reason
Gernot Trauner Muscle Injury
Patrick Wimmer Suspended

2️⃣ Turkey Update

There has been an enjoyable naivety about how Turkey have approached Euro 2024, with their opening game against Georgia incredibly open and creating a cumulative xG of 4.32. They also created chances during the 3-0 defeat against Portugal, while their 2-1 victory over the Czechs followed another end-to-end encounter. However, there’s concern about Turkey’s overall form, with the Crescent-Stars having won just two of their previous eight games (including the 6-1 thrashing in Austria). They’ve also conceded 15 times during this sequence at a rate of 1.8 per 90. If Turkey are to win, Real Madrid starlet Arda Guler will be key, having already scored once and completed 11 dribbles in 174 minutes of action.

Last 5 Games
Turkey 2
Czech Republic 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 0
Portugal 3
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Turkey 3
Georgia 1
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F
Poland 2
Turkey 1
International Friendly
Italy 0
Turkey 0
International Friendly

Turkey will be without influential skipper Hakan Calhanoglu and centre back Samet Akaydin against Austria, with both having collected their second bookings of the tournament against the Czech Republic. Abdulkerim Bardakci is expected to be drafted into central defence, while one of Okay Yokuslu, Kaan Ayhan and Orkun Kokcu will replace Calhanoglu in midfield. Mert Gunok remains a doubt with a knee injury, but he’s widely expected to start in goal for Turkey at the Red Bull Arena.

Player Reason
Hakan Calhanoglu Suspended
Samet Akaydin Suspended
Mert Gunok Knee Injury

👕 Austria vs Turkey Potential Lineups

Pos. Austria
Goalkeeper P. Pentz M. Gunok Goalkeeper
Right Back S. Posch M. Müldür Right Back
Centre Back K. Danso A. Bardakci Centre Back
Centre Back M. Wober M. Demiral Centre Back
Left Back A. Prass F. Kadıoğlu Left Back
Midfielder N. Seiwald O. Yokuslu Midfielder
Midfielder F. Grillitsch K. Ayhan Midfielder
Midfielder M. Sabitzer Orkun Kökçü Midfielder
Wide Forward K. Laimer A. Guler Wide Forward
Striker M. Arnautović B. A. Yilmaz Striker
Wide Forward C. Baumgartner K. Aktürkoğlu Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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