Albania vs Spain Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024
| Timetable | 21:00 GMT 24th June 2024 |
| Prediction | Spain to Win! |
| Odds | 1.46 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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After their 1-0 victory over Italy in Gelsenkirchen on Thursday, Spain became the second nation to book their place in the 2024 UEFA European Championship round of 16. They’re also guaranteed to top Group B, regardless of the results in the final round of fixtures. As for Albania, they ideally need a win to have any chance of qualifying for the tournament’s knockout stage, either in second place or as one of the four best third place teams. The question that remains is whether Spain will rest and rotate players, but even this may not be enough given the strength of La Roja’s playing squad. Here’s my take on the likely outcome and the latest prices from Ireland’s best betting sites.
🏆 Albania vs Spain Prediction
Spain have been mightily impressive during Euro 2024 so far, showcasing many different sides to their game in their two Group B matches. La Roja adopted a more direct playing style while ceding possession and territory against Croatia, for example, before dominating the ball and sustaining relentless waves of attack against the Italians.
Overall, Spain have averaged just 51.5% possession per 90 minutes in Germany, which represents something of a departure from their trademark philosophy. However, they’ve launched 89 attacks (only three sides have mounted more at Euro 2024), while accumulating an xG of 3.94 that they’ve outperformed by 0.06 goals.
Spain’s versatility will stand them in good stead during the tournament, while they boast two of the tournament’s most exciting players in the form of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. This pair have contributed one assist and completed 18 dribbles between them in the competition so far. Rodri has provided a reassuring and metronomic presence in the middle of the park too, completing 152 of his 161 attempted passes (93.5%) and making five key passes in total.
Albania have performed well in Germany so far, demonstrating resilience and defensive strength in abundance. They’ve recovered 67 balls in the tournament overall and attempted a total of 47 clearances. The Red and Blacks have a huge incentive to win here too, while Spain may also rest players now that they’re assured of topping Group B. However, La Roja have a deep and talented squad, and they should have too much for Albania regardless of which starting 11 they field.
Format: My Prediction: 🏆Albania 0 – 2 Spain⚽
💯 Albania vs Spain Match Odds
Games of this type are deceptively hard to call, despite the obvious difference in quality between the two teams. The fact that Spain have already qualified and may rest players in Düsseldorf certainly makes them a less enticing pick in the win market, but you can also wager on BTTS lines and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.
🏅 Albania vs Spain: Match Winner
Spain are priced at around 1.44 to beat Albania at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, implying a 69.44% probability of a victory for La Roja. Arguably, their starting odds would be a little lower if they hadn’t already qualified for the round of 16. You can get average odds of 7.25 on Albania earning their second ever European Championship finals win over Spain, suggesting that they have a 13.79% chance of achieving this goal. The draw can be backed at a distant 4.70, implying a 21.27% probability of the match ending in a tie.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania to Win | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.25 | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| Spain to Win | 1.44 | 1.46 | 1.40 | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Draw to Win | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.80 |
⚽ Albania vs Spain: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in just four of Albania’s previous 10 matches (40%). Sylvinho’s team have kept four clean sheets during this sequence, while drawing three blanks against Sweden, Chile and the Faroe Islands. Four of the last 10 games contested by Spain have also seen both sides find the net, with La Roja keeping an impressive five clean sheets (including two at Euro 2024) and failing to score just once.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.80 | 1.98 |
| No | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.77 | 1.80 | 1.83 |
🥅 Albania vs Spain: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The last 10 matches played by Albania have also produced a total of 25 goals, at a rate of 2.5 per game. The Black and White have scored 15 and conceded 10 goals during this sequence, at respective averages of 1.5 and 1.0 per 90 minutes. Spain’s previous 10 contests have yielded 33 goals at a rate of 3.3 per 90. La Roja have scored 26 times during this run at an average of 2.6 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.08 | 2.07 | 2.08 | 2.13 |
✔️ Albania vs Spain - Betting Tips
Although you may be tempted by the draw or an Albania win given Spain’s secure status in Group B, there are alternative betting lines that offer superior value here. So, here are some insightful betting tips to help you make more informed selections, whether you choose to wager pre-game or as the action unfolds!
- Tip 1: Back Spain to Win to Nil: Albania have accumulated a total xG of 2.02 in their two Euro 2024 matches so far, while registering 23 attempts on goal. However, they managed just eight shots (and one on target) and an xG of 0.48 against top-tier opposition in the form of Italy, suggesting that they may struggle to break even a depleted Spanish outfit. Remember, Spain have also kept five clean sheets in their previous 10 games, so get on La Roja to win to nil in Düsseldorf at the competitive price of 2.25 with Royalist Play Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Fabian Ruiz to Produce Over 0.5 Assists: Fabian Ruiz has starred for Spain in Euro 2024 so far, dictating Spain’s tempo in the final third and contributing a goal and an assist so far. Ruiz has also completed 122 of his 133 attempted passes (91.5%), while making an impressive seven key passes overall. He has also played 11 passes into the attacking third from deeper positions, and should see plenty of the ball if he starts at the Merkur Spiel-Arena. So, get on Ruiz to produce over 0.5 assists here at a price of 2.75 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Spain to Win with a -1.5 Goal Handicap: If you want to maximise the value of any available free bets that you have, consider engaging in handicap betting. This is a risky market given that Spain have already qualified, but I expect them to dominate possession against Albania and restrict their opponents chances in transition. They may also be able to create opportunities on the break themselves if Albania are forced to chase the game, so consider backing Spain to win with a nominal handicap of -1.5 goals at the enhanced price of 2.75 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Albania Update
Although Albania’s couldn’t build on their record-breaking, 23-second goal against Italy in their tournament opener, they were able to sustain far more attacking threat against Croatia. This saw them hit 15 attempts on goal and accumulate an xG of 1.54, highlighting a previously unseen cutting edge to complement their defensive organisation. However, the Albanians have now won just four of their previous 10 matches overall and two of their last seven, including their first two fixtures at Euro 2024. The creative Nedim Bajrami will be key to their chances of returning to form against Spain, having already scored against Italy and completed five runs into the attacking third.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Croatia 2 Albania2 | 16.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group F | 19.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Italy 2 Albania 1 | 15.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Albania 3 Azerbaijan 1 | 07.06.24 International Friendly |
| Albania 3 Liechtenstein 0 | 03.06.24 International Friendly |
| Sweden 1 Albania 0 | 25.03.24 International Friendly |
Both Qazim Laçi and Rey Manaj are expected to keep their place against Spain, with the former having scored the opener against the Croatians. They’ll be supported by the aforementioned Bajrami, but it’s unlikely that manager Sylvinho will make extensive changes ahead of a must-win game in Düsseldorf. They certainly have no new injuries or suspensions to report.
2️⃣ Spain Update
Although Luis de la Fuente’s team didn’t arrive in Germany among the favourites to win Euro 2024, their outright odds have shortened after their opening two Group B matches. They’ve now lost just one of their previous 14 matches in all competitions too, since a shock 2-0 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park on 28th March 2023. Luis de la Fuente’s men have scored 41 goals during this sequence at a rate of 2.92 per 90 minutes, and remain in truly outstanding form. The aforementioned Nico Williams may take centre stage once again if he starts in Düsseldorf, with the 21-year old having already completed 10 dribbles at the tournament (only three players have completed more).
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Spain 1 Italy 0 | 20.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Spain 3 Croatia 1 | 15.06.24 UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B |
| Spain 5 Northern Ireland 1 | 08.06.24 International Friendly |
| Spain 5 Andorra 0 | 05.06.24 International Friendly |
| Spain 3 Brazil 3 | 26.03.24 International Friendly |
Spain have no new injuries to report after their win over Italy. However, they may yet made widescale changes after qualifying in top spot in Group B with a game to spare. Ferran Torres could come in for the precocious Lamal, while fit again Martín Zubimendi could help Spain to afford the influential Rodri a rest. Both Mikel Merino and Mikel Oyarzabal may also earn their first starts at the Euros against Albania.
👕 Albania vs Spain Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Albania 4-2-3-1 | Spain 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | T. Strakosha | U. Simon | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | E. Hysaj | D. Carvajal | Right Back |
| Centre Back | A. Ajeti | Nacho | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | B. Djimsiti | A. Laporte | Centre Back |
| Left Back | M. Mitaj | M. Cucurella | Left Back |
| Midfielder | Y. Ramadani | F. Ruiz | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | K. Asllani | M. Zubimendi | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Qazim Laçi | M. Merino | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | J. Asani | F. Torres | Wide Forward |
| Striker | R. Manaj | M. Oyarzabal | Striker |
| Wide Forward | N. Bajrami | N. Williams | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
