Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

tottenham-v-arsenal-logo tottenham-v-arsenal-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 28th April 24
PredictionBack Arsenal to Win!
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
Back Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €178 if Arsenal win.
Odds : 1.78
Bet €100 and win €178 if Arsenal win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Arsenal win.
tottenham-v-arsenal-logo tottenham-v-arsenal-logo

Man City’s victory over Brighton in midweek saw them move just a point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, ensuring that the Premier League title race remains firmly in their hands. However, the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 in midweek and retain a 35% chance of winning the EPL according to Opta, while Mikel Arteta’s men also have the best away record in this season’s EPL. The bad news is that Spurs have won 12 times at home in 2023/24 and will be desperate to scupper their rivals' title chances in front of their own fans. But who do I think will win, and what odds are being offered by Ireland’s leading football betting sites?

🏆 Tottenham vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Spurs and Arsenal played out a thrilling encounter in the 194th North London derby back on September 24th, with both sides sharing the spoils after a 2-2 draw. Tottenham matched their hosts stride-for-stride at the Emirates, accumulating an xG of 2.21 and claiming a 54% share of possession. Arsenal’s own xG was 2.34 and Arteta’s men led twice before being pegged back.

Spurs certainly didn’t take a backward step against the Gunners, and Ange Postecoglou’s team will adopt a similarly front-foot approach at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. No team has attempted more tackles in the attacking third than Spurs this season (106), while the side has maintained the fourth-highest defensive line in the EPL during the 2023/24 campaign.

Spurs have also won 52.4% of their tackles, but they’ve also made 20 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season. This is the flip side of Ange Postecoglou’s high-risk, high-intensity approach, but it will be sorely examined by an incredibly efficient Arsenal side that has already scored 82 goals in the league and outperformed their collective xG by an impressive +7.98 goals.

What’s more, Spurs will be without influential left back Destiny Udogie, who has completed 83 progressive carries this season and will miss the remainder of the campaign through injury. Right back Pedro Porro is also a doubt ahead of the North London derby, and given the important tactical role that both fullbacks play in Postecoglou’s system, this could afford the Gunners a competitive edge that helps them to secure a potentially pivotal win.

My Prediction: 🏆 Tottenham 1 – 2 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Tottenham vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

Derbies of this type are always tough to call, especially when it comes to predicting a winner or the final result. However, the very best betting sites are offering a diverse range of markets, including the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored and both teams to score (or not). But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Tottenham vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Despite these teams contesting an evenly matched game in the reverse fixture and the unpredictable nature of the London derby, Spurs are priced as high as 4.50 to defeat the Gunners. These odds imply just a 22.22% of a home win. As for Arsenal, they can be backed to prevail at around 1.75 and have a 57.14% chance of recording their 12th victory on the road in 2023/24.

Tottenham to Win4.334.003.904.504.20
Arsenal to Win1.731.781.781.751.75

⚽ Tottenham vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in a staggering 14 of Tottenham’s 16 home matches this season (87.5%), with Spurs scoring in every single game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and keeping two clean sheets. However, they’ve conceded in 12 consecutive home matches since October 23rd. Conversely, both sides have found the net in just five of Arsenal’s 17 away matches in 2023/24 (29.41%). The Gunners have kept an impressive 10 clean sheets and drawn three blanks, while they haven’t conceded on the road for six matches and 541 minutes.


🥅 Tottenham vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tottenham’s 16 home matches have yielded a total of 55 goals at a rate of 3.43 per game. They’ve also scored 34 of these goals at a rate of 2.12 per 90 minutes. The 17 away matches contested by Arsenal have produced 50 goals at the lower rate of 2.94 per 90, with the Gunners conceding a miserly 11 goals at a rate of 0.64 per game on the road.

Over 2.5 Goals 1.44 1.48 1.46 1.40 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals 2.50 2.60 2.52 2.60 2.63

✔️ Tottenham vs Arsenal - Betting Tips

This could be a fascinating Premier League clash, as while Spurs are often irresistible as an attacking force at home, the Gunners have the best defensive record on the road and have already kept 10 clean sheets away from the Emirates. So, it may be hard to predict match outcomes or leverage certain markets successfully, but I’ve prepared some key betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll and available free bets!

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The pre-game odds imply a 68.96% probability of both teams scoring at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but Arsenal’s exceptional defensive record on the road has ensured that this market is more competitively priced than it otherwise may have been. However, Spurs have yet to draw a single blank at home in their 2023/24 EPL campaign, while they haven’t stopped the opposition from scoring in front of their own fans for 12 successive games. So, there’s value in backing both teams to score at a price of 1.48 with Royalist Play.
  • Tip 2: Back Heung-min Son as an Anytime Goalscorer: While Heung-min Son only has six career goals in 17 Premier League appearances against the Gunners, these have come in the last eight matches since September 2019. This haul includes a brace against Arsenal at the Emirates in September, when the South Korean produced two composed finishes. He has also scored 15 EPL goals in total this season from 70 shots and an xG of just 9.3, which he has outperformed by an impressive +5.7 goals. So, get on Son as an anytime scorer at a price of 3.40 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win with Over 2.5 Goals Scored: The pre-game odds imply a 57.14% of an Arsenal win, and there’s little value in backing the Gunners to win outright. If you think Arsenal will prevail and expect both teams to score at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, however, there’s logical sense in backing the Gunners to win with over 2.5 goals being scored. Remember, Spurs’ home matches in the EPL have produced an average of 3.43 goals per 90 this season, while Arsenal have scored 22 goals in their previous six matches on the road. You can get on this market at the enhanced price of 2.35 with PalmSlots Sports.

1️⃣ Tottenham Update

Spurs haven’t played since April 13th and should be well rested ahead of the North London derby. However, they’ve fallen six points behind Aston Villa in the race for fourth during this time, and while they have two games in hand, they have to play Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal before the end of the season. The good news is that they’ve only lost one of their previous nine home matches since December 7th, while they’ve taken 17 points from the last 30 available to them in total and sit sixth in the Premier League form table during this period.

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 4
Tottenham 0
Premier League
Tottenham 3
Nottingham Forest 1
Premier League
West Ham 1
Tottenham 1
Premier League
Tottenham 2
Luton 1
Premier League
Fulham 3
Tottenham 0
Premier League

The aforementioned Pedro Porro faces a late fitness test before the Arsenal game, as he continues to struggle with a hamstring strain. Striker Richarlison (knee injury) will also be assessed this week ahead of a potential return. However, Tottenham now have four players who will miss the remainder of the 2023/24 season, with Manor Solomon (knee), Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) and Fraser Forster (ankle) joining Udogie (thigh) as a long-term absentee.

Destiny Udogie Thigh Injury
Pedro Porro Hamstring Injury
Manor Solomon Knee Injury
Fraser Forster Ankle Injury
Ryan Sessegnon Thigh Injury
Richarlison Knee Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal have recovered well from successive defeats against Aston Villa and Bayern Munich, which damaged their EPL title challenge and saw them exit the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage. In fact, they recorded a surprisingly comfortable 2-0 win at Wolves last weekend, before their 5-0 thrashing of London rivals Chelsea at the Emirates in midweek. They’ve now won 12 of their 14 matches home and away in 2024, while taking 25 points from the 30 available them to top the Premier League form table. Remember, they’re also unbeaten in seven away matches this year and haven’t conceded on the road since a 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest on January 30th.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 5
Chelsea 0
Premier League
Wolves 0
Arsenal 2
Premier League
Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal 0
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 0
Aston Villa 2
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Bayern Munich 2
UEFA Champions League

Unlike Spurs, Arsenal have no new injury concerns ahead of the trip across the city to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This means that their sole confirmed absentee is Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is completing his recovery from an ACL injury and could make a return to the first team in May.

Jurrien Timber ACL Injury

👕 Tottenham vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. Tottenham
Goalkeeper G. Vicario D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Royal B. White Right Back
Centre Back C. Romero W. Saliba Centre Back
Centre Back M. van de Ven Gabriel Centre Back
Left Back B. Davies J. Kiwior Left Back
Midfielder Y. Bissouma M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Midfielder Pape Matar Sarr Jorginho Midfielder
Midfielder J. Maddison D. Rice Midfielder
Wide Forward D. Kulusevski B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker Son Heung-min K. Havertz Striker
Wide Forward B. Johnson G. Martinelli Wide Forward

Back Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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