Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Tottenham vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Spurs and Arsenal played out a thrilling encounter in the 194th North London derby back on September 24th, with both sides sharing the spoils after a 2-2 draw. Tottenham matched their hosts stride-for-stride at the Emirates, accumulating an xG of 2.21 and claiming a 54% share of possession. Arsenal’s own xG was 2.34 and Arteta’s men led twice before being pegged back.

Spurs certainly didn’t take a backward step against the Gunners, and Ange Postecoglou’s team will adopt a similarly front-foot approach at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. No team has attempted more tackles in the attacking third than Spurs this season (106), while the side has maintained the fourth-highest defensive line in the EPL during the 2023/24 campaign.

Spurs have also won 52.4% of their tackles, but they’ve also made 20 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season. This is the flip side of Ange Postecoglou’s high-risk, high-intensity approach, but it will be sorely examined by an incredibly efficient Arsenal side that has already scored 82 goals in the league and outperformed their collective xG by an impressive +7.98 goals.

What’s more, Spurs will be without influential left back Destiny Udogie, who has completed 83 progressive carries this season and will miss the remainder of the campaign through injury. Right back Pedro Porro is also a doubt ahead of the North London derby, and given the important tactical role that both fullbacks play in Postecoglou’s system, this could afford the Gunners a competitive edge that helps them to secure a potentially pivotal win.

💯 Tottenham vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

Derbies of this type are always tough to call, especially when it comes to predicting a winner or the final result. However, the very best betting sites are offering a diverse range of markets, including the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored and both teams to score (or not). But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Tottenham vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Despite these teams contesting an evenly matched game in the reverse fixture and the unpredictable nature of the London derby, Spurs are priced as high as 4.50 to defeat the Gunners. These odds imply just a 22.22% of a home win. As for Arsenal, they can be backed to prevail at around 1.75 and have a 57.14% chance of recording their 12th victory on the road in 2023/24.

Team
Tottenham to Win	4.33	4.00	3.90	4.50	4.20
Arsenal to Win	1.73	1.78	1.78	1.75	1.75
Draw	3.80	4.00	4.05	4.00	4.00

⚽ Tottenham vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in a staggering 14 of Tottenham’s 16 home matches this season (87.5%), with Spurs scoring in every single game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and keeping two clean sheets. However, they’ve conceded in 12 consecutive home matches since October 23rd. Conversely, both sides have found the net in just five of Arsenal’s 17 away matches in 2023/24 (29.41%). The Gunners have kept an impressive 10 clean sheets and drawn three blanks, while they haven’t conceded on the road for six matches and 541 minutes.

Yes/No
Yes	1.44	1.48	1.45	1.44	1.44
No	2.50	2.60	2.53	2.45	2.63

🥅 Tottenham vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Tottenham’s 16 home matches have yielded a total of 55 goals at a rate of 3.43 per game. They’ve also scored 34 of these goals at a rate of 2.12 per 90 minutes. The 17 away matches contested by Arsenal have produced 50 goals at the lower rate of 2.94 per 90, with the Gunners conceding a miserly 11 goals at a rate of 0.64 per game on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.48	1.46	1.40	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.60	2.52	2.60	2.63

1️⃣ Tottenham Update

Spurs haven’t played since April 13th and should be well rested ahead of the North London derby. However, they’ve fallen six points behind Aston Villa in the race for fourth during this time, and while they have two games in hand, they have to play Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal before the end of the season. The good news is that they’ve only lost one of their previous nine home matches since December 7th, while they’ve taken 17 points from the last 30 available to them in total and sit sixth in the Premier League form table during this period.

The aforementioned Pedro Porro faces a late fitness test before the Arsenal game, as he continues to struggle with a hamstring strain. Striker Richarlison (knee injury) will also be assessed this week ahead of a potential return. However, Tottenham now have four players who will miss the remainder of the 2023/24 season, with Manor Solomon (knee), Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) and Fraser Forster (ankle) joining Udogie (thigh) as a long-term absentee.

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal have recovered well from successive defeats against Aston Villa and Bayern Munich, which damaged their EPL title challenge and saw them exit the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage. In fact, they recorded a surprisingly comfortable 2-0 win at Wolves last weekend, before their 5-0 thrashing of London rivals Chelsea at the Emirates in midweek. They’ve now won 12 of their 14 matches home and away in 2024, while taking 25 points from the 30 available them to top the Premier League form table. Remember, they’re also unbeaten in seven away matches this year and haven’t conceded on the road since a 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest on January 30th.

Unlike Spurs, Arsenal have no new injury concerns ahead of the trip across the city to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This means that their sole confirmed absentee is Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is completing his recovery from an ACL injury and could make a return to the first team in May.

👕 Tottenham vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.