Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable17:30 GMT, 13th January 24
PredictionMan City to Win!
Odds1.55
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Odds : 1.55
Bet €100 and win €155 if Man City win.
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Odds : 1.55
Bet €100 and win €155 if Man City win.
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
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Odds : 1.55
Bet €100 and win €155 if Man City win.
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While Newcastle’s comprehensive FA Cup win over neighbours Sunderland will have improved the mood at St. James Park, the Magpies have still lost five of their last six Premier League matches. They’ve also shipped 15 goals during this sequence, and their defence will surely be tested again by Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s men appear to have returned from the FIFA Club World Cup with a renewed focus, while the potential restoration of Erling Haaland to the starting 11 could also be bad news for Newcastle. But who will prevail here, and what do the best betting sites think?

🏆 Newcastle vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

Newcastle and Man City have met 190 times in all competitions since October 1893, with the Citizens winning 76 of these games. The Magpies have prevailed on 73 occasions, although they’ve only recorded two wins against City in their last 18 meetings since October 2014.

These 18 meetings have also produced 64 goals at a rate of 3.55 per game, with Newcastle v Man City one of the highest scoring fixtures in Premier League history. I expect this trend to continue at St James Park, especially given Newcastle’s increasingly porous defence and the potential return of both Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne to City’s matchday squad.

Overall, Newcastle have shipped 29 goals in 20 EPL matches at a rate of 1.45 per 90 this season, while winning just 42.8% of their tackles. Against City, they’ll also come up against the most efficient attacking force in the Premier League, with Guardiola’s men having outperformed their xG value by +7.2 goals to become the competition’s top scorers.

Ultimately, it’s hard to look past a win for City here, especially as Newcastle continue to struggle with injuries in defense and midfield. According to the EPL injuries table, the Magpies have lost a staggering 892 days to injury in 2023/24 alone, and this issue shows no sign of abating any time soon.

My Prediction: 🏆 Newcastle 1 – 3 Man City ⚽

💯 Newcastle vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

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The sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews offer hundreds of Newcastle v Man City betting markets. However, match winner, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored remain the most popular, so let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re being priced.

🏅 Newcastle vs Manchester City: Match Winner

Despite having home advantage, Newcastle are the underdogs to beat Man City, with their average price of 5.00 implying a 20.00% probability of an home win. As for City, they can be backed at around 1.55 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 64.51% chance of defeating Eddie Howe’s men.

Team
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Newcastle to Win5.005.505.254.505.25
Man City to Win1.551.551.551.531.55
Draw4.204.204.354.334.40

⚽ Newcastle vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 45% of Newcastle’s EPL games this season, and 40% of their fixtures at St. James Park. The Magpies have also found the net in every one of their home games this season. As for City, both teams have struck in 63% of their Premier League matches, and 60% of their clashes on the road.

Yes/No
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Yes1.671.701.641.671.70
No2.102.102.162.202.10

🥅 Newcastle vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

While City are this season’s top scorers in the Premier League, Newcastle are the fourth highest with 39 goals in 20 matches. Overall, these two teams have contested 39 Premier League matches in 2023/24, with these yielding a total of 134 goals at a rate of 3.43 per game. So, I expect most over/under-betting activity to be around the 2.5 goals line (or higher) here.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.601.621.581.621.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.202.252.242.202.25

✔️ Newcastle vs Manchester City - Betting Tips

Strategies such as matched betting may not be especially effective here, due to City’s short starting price and their perceived superiority over Newcastle. However, I’ve prepared some alternative betting tips to help you navigate the most popular markets.

  • Tip 1: Back Man City to Win and Both Teams to Score: Not only have the Magpies scored in each of their nine home matches in 2023/24, but City have only failed to find the net twice in 19 EPL games. So, I fully expect both teams to score at St James Park, while City are deserved favourites to win given their pedigree and the likely return of top scorer Erling Haaland. So, there’s considerable value to be found in backing Man City to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.00 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Over 3.5 Goals to be Scored: As I’ve touched on, most of the over/under betting activity for this game will be around the 2.5 goals line. However, the EPL matches contested by both teams in 2023/24 have produced an average of 3.43 goals per 90, while Newcastle and Manchester City have showcased defensive vulnerability at times this season. So, consider backing over 3.5 goals to be scored in the game at a price of 2.50 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Kevin De Bruyne as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you could consider wagering on the anytime goalscorer market. Interestingly, the fit again Belgian Kevin De Bruyne offers tangible value here, as while Guardiola has confirmed he won’t start at St. James Park, I expect him to get some game time in the second half. Also, he has nine goal involvements (two goals and seven assists) in just 12 appearances against the Magpies, and you can back him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 4.75 with Dachbet-Sports.

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

While there’s no doubting the job that Eddie Howe has done at St James Park, his side has struggled this season amid a slew of injuries. To this end, they’re 14th in the Premier League form table, having taken just 12 points from the previous 30 available to them and lost six of their last 10 matches. They’ve won just one of their last six EPL games too, with heavy defeats against Everton, Spurs and Liverpool included in this run. Even during their morale boosting FA Cup win over Sunderland, they lost the influential Joelinton to a thigh injury, and continue to struggle for options in midfield and defence.

Last 5 Games
Sunderland 0
Newcastle 3
06.01.24
FA Cup
Liverpool 4
Newcastle 2
01.01.24
Premier League
Newcastle 1
Nottingham Forest 3
26.12.23
Premier League
Luton 1
Newcastle 0
23.12.23
Premier League
Chelsea 1
Newcastle 1
19.12.23
EFL Cup

Joelinton is one of 10 absentees against Man City, with Callum Wilson (calf injury), Joe Willock (heel) and Harvey Barnes (ankle) all ruled out until the end of January. First choice goalkeeper Nick Pope is still sidelined after having shoulder surgery, while Matt Targett (thigh) and Jacob Murphy (shoulder) are longer term absentees too. Midfielder Elliot Anderson is out with a stress fracture of the back, while full back Javier Manquillo continues to struggle with a groin injury. Sandro Tonali continues to serve his 10-month ban for breaching betting rules.

PlayerReason
Joelinton Thigh Injury
Callum Wilson Calf Injury
Joe Willock Heel Injury
Harvey Barnes Ankle Injury
Nick Pope Shoulder Surgery
Matt Targett Thigh Injury
Jacob Murphy Shoulder Injury
Elliot Anderson Back Injury
Javier Manquillo Groin Injury
Sandro Tonali Suspended

2️⃣ Man City Update

While Man City have taken 19 points from the last 30 available and lost just once in their previous 10 games, their domestic form has been patchy by their own high standards. However, the side has won twice since returning victorious from the FIFA Club World Cup, impressively defeating a durable Everton side at Goodison Park and beating Sheffield United at the Etihad without getting out of first gear. The return of Kevin De Bruyne after four months has also boosted the Citizens significantly, while Erling Haaland is expected to be named in the squad against Newcastle after recovering from a foot injury.

Last 5 Games
Man City 5
Huddersfield 0
07.01.24
FA Cup
Man City 2
Sheffield United 0
30.12.23
Premier League
Everton 1
Man City 3
27.12.23
Premier League
Fluminense 0
Man City 4
22.12.23
FIFA Club World Cup
Urawa Reds 0
Man City 3
19.12.23
FIFA Club World Cup

The return of De Bruyne and likely return of Haaland means that City will virtually be at full strength for the trip to Newcastle. In fact, reserve keeper Zack Steffen is the only long-term absentee as he recovers from knee surgery, although John Stones is continuing to struggle with a foot injury. Jérémy Doku also made his comeback from injury in the FA Cup win over Huddersfield, while Bernardo Silva and Kalvin Phillips (both illness) should be available for selection too.

PlayerReason
Zack Steffen Knee Surgery
John Stones Foot Injury
Erling Haaland Foot Injury

👕 Newcastle v Manchester City - Potential Lineups

Pos. Newcastle
4-3-3
Man City
3-2-4-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Dúbravka Ederson Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Trippier K. Walker Right Centre Back
Centre Back F. Schär R. Dias Centre Back
Centre Back S. Botman N. Ake Left Centre Back
Left Back D. Burn M. Akanji Central Midfield
Midfielder L. Miley Rodri Central Midfield
Midfielder B. Guimarães P. Foden Right Midfielder
Midfielder S. Longstaff J. Alvarez Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Almirón B. Silva Attacking Midfielder
Striker A. Isak J. Grealish Left Midfielder
Wide Forward A. Gordon E. Haaland Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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