Newcastle vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Newcastle vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

Newcastle and Man City have met 190 times in all competitions since October 1893, with the Citizens winning 76 of these games. The Magpies have prevailed on 73 occasions, although they’ve only recorded two wins against City in their last 18 meetings since October 2014.

These 18 meetings have also produced 64 goals at a rate of 3.55 per game, with Newcastle v Man City one of the highest scoring fixtures in Premier League history. I expect this trend to continue at St James Park, especially given Newcastle’s increasingly porous defence and the potential return of both Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne to City’s matchday squad.

Overall, Newcastle have shipped 29 goals in 20 EPL matches at a rate of 1.45 per 90 this season, while winning just 42.8% of their tackles. Against City, they’ll also come up against the most efficient attacking force in the Premier League, with Guardiola’s men having outperformed their xG value by +7.2 goals to become the competition’s top scorers.

Ultimately, it’s hard to look past a win for City here, especially as Newcastle continue to struggle with injuries in defense and midfield. According to the EPL injuries table, the Magpies have lost a staggering 892 days to injury in 2023/24 alone, and this issue shows no sign of abating any time soon.

💯 Newcastle vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

The sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews offer hundreds of Newcastle v Man City betting markets. However, match winner, BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored remain the most popular, so let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re being priced.

🏅 Newcastle vs Manchester City: Match Winner

Despite having home advantage, Newcastle are the underdogs to beat Man City, with their average price of 5.00 implying a 20.00% probability of an home win. As for City, they can be backed at around 1.55 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 64.51% chance of defeating Eddie Howe’s men.

Team
Newcastle to Win	5.00	5.50	5.25	4.50	5.25
Man City to Win	1.55	1.55	1.55	1.53	1.55
Draw	4.20	4.20	4.35	4.33	4.40

⚽ Newcastle vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 45% of Newcastle’s EPL games this season, and 40% of their fixtures at St. James Park. The Magpies have also found the net in every one of their home games this season. As for City, both teams have struck in 63% of their Premier League matches, and 60% of their clashes on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.67	1.70	1.64	1.67	1.70
No	2.10	2.10	2.16	2.20	2.10

🥅 Newcastle vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

While City are this season’s top scorers in the Premier League, Newcastle are the fourth highest with 39 goals in 20 matches. Overall, these two teams have contested 39 Premier League matches in 2023/24, with these yielding a total of 134 goals at a rate of 3.43 per game. So, I expect most over/under-betting activity to be around the 2.5 goals line (or higher) here.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.60	1.62	1.58	1.62	1.57
Under 2.5 Goals	2.20	2.25	2.24	2.20	2.25

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

While there’s no doubting the job that Eddie Howe has done at St James Park, his side has struggled this season amid a slew of injuries. To this end, they’re 14th in the Premier League form table, having taken just 12 points from the previous 30 available to them and lost six of their last 10 matches. They’ve won just one of their last six EPL games too, with heavy defeats against Everton, Spurs and Liverpool included in this run. Even during their morale boosting FA Cup win over Sunderland, they lost the influential Joelinton to a thigh injury, and continue to struggle for options in midfield and defence.

Joelinton is one of 10 absentees against Man City, with Callum Wilson (calf injury), Joe Willock (heel) and Harvey Barnes (ankle) all ruled out until the end of January. First choice goalkeeper Nick Pope is still sidelined after having shoulder surgery, while Matt Targett (thigh) and Jacob Murphy (shoulder) are longer term absentees too. Midfielder Elliot Anderson is out with a stress fracture of the back, while full back Javier Manquillo continues to struggle with a groin injury. Sandro Tonali continues to serve his 10-month ban for breaching betting rules.

2️⃣ Man City Update

While Man City have taken 19 points from the last 30 available and lost just once in their previous 10 games, their domestic form has been patchy by their own high standards. However, the side has won twice since returning victorious from the FIFA Club World Cup, impressively defeating a durable Everton side at Goodison Park and beating Sheffield United at the Etihad without getting out of first gear. The return of Kevin De Bruyne after four months has also boosted the Citizens significantly, while Erling Haaland is expected to be named in the squad against Newcastle after recovering from a foot injury.

The return of De Bruyne and likely return of Haaland means that City will virtually be at full strength for the trip to Newcastle. In fact, reserve keeper Zack Steffen is the only long-term absentee as he recovers from knee surgery, although John Stones is continuing to struggle with a foot injury. Jérémy Doku also made his comeback from injury in the FA Cup win over Huddersfield, while Bernardo Silva and Kalvin Phillips (both illness) should be available for selection too.

👕 Newcastle v Manchester City - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.