Manchester City vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 17:40 GMT, 17th Feb 24 |
| Prediction | Manchester City to win |
| Odds | 1.35 |
| Bookmaker | betway |
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Since jetting out to Jeddah for the FIFA Club World Cup, Manchester City have won 11 successive matches and welcomed back both Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland from injury. They’ve also won six consecutive Premier League matches and moved to within striking distance at the top of the table, while they remain unbeaten in 15 games at the Etihad in all competitions in 2023/24. As for Chelsea, they’ll be looking to win successive EPL games for just the third time this season, while they remain 20 points behind City in the table. But can they spring a surprise here, and how are the best betting sites pricing a potential City win?
🏆 Manchester City vs Chelsea EPL Prediction
Chelsea are also on a seven-game winless streak against Pep Guardiola’s side, while the thrilling 4-4 draw between these two teams last November broke a run of six successive defeats in all competitions. Incredibly, they lost four times to the Citizens in 2022/23, failing to score in these matches while conceding seven goals.
The Blues have also been frustrating and enduringly inconsistent this term, with no team having missed more big chances in the Premier League (47). They’ve certainly struggled in front of goal, and despite averaging 59.6% possession per 90 minutes in the league this season, they’ve underperformed their xG value by -5.3 goals (only Everton have fared worse by this metric).
City sit at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to chance conversion, having outperformed their collective xG value of 45.1 by an impressive +9.9 goals. Their opponents have also been inefficient in the defensive third, with Chelsea regularly failing to win their individual duels and making a concerning 15 errors leading to a shot on goal this season.
Man City are primed to capitalise on such errors, while they’re in incredible form and already embarked on the type of winning streak that has underpinned their success in recent seasons. Belgian playmaker Kevin De Bruyne has also amassed five goal involvements (one goal and four assists) in four EPL appearances since his return, and I expect him to inspire City to another win at the weekend.
My Prediction: 🏆 Manchester City 4 – 1 Chelsea ⚽
💯 Manchester City vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds
There are hundreds of football betting markets associated with the Premier League clash between Man City and Chelsea. In addition to the match winner or result, you can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game. Here are the latest odds across the most popular markets.
🏅 Manchester City vs Chelsea: Match Winner
Man City are the overwhelming favourite to defeat Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium, with their average price of 1.34% implying a 74.62% probability of a home win. Incredibly, the Blues can be backed at around 7.50 to triumph in Manchester, suggesting that they have just a 13.33% chance of achieving this goal.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City to Win | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.35 |
| Chelsea | 8.00 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 8.00 | 7.50 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.45 | 6.00 | 5.50 |
⚽ Manchester City vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 15 of the 23 EPL matches played by Man City this season (65%), and eight of their 12 away games. 15 of the 24 league contests featuring Chelsea have also seen both sides find the net (62.5%), including six of their last seven encounters. Both teams have scored in nine of Chelsea’s 12 away matches, while the Blues haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road since October 2nd.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| No | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 2.10 |
🥅 Manchester City vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
City’s 11 home matches in the Premier League have produced 39 goals at a rate of 3.54 per game, with Guardiola’s side having scored 29 of these. Chelsea have contested 12 matches on the road, with these encounters yielding 43 goals in total at a rate of 3.58 per 90 minutes. However, Chelsea have shipped 22 goals away from home and have a negative goal difference on their travels.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.67 | 2.80 | 2.63 |
✔️ Manchester City vs Chelsea - Betting Tips
The pre-game odds all imply a high probability of a Man City victory, BTTS and there being over 2.5 goals scored in the match. But how can you create value in these markets and make the most of your starting bankroll? Here are some betting tips to consider.
- Tip 1: Back City to Win and Both Teams to Score: The odds certainly imply a high probability of City winning and both teams scoring, so there’s little value to be found in backing either of these outcomes individually. However, you can combine these two picks in a single wager, enabling you to bet at the significantly enhanced price of 2.63 with 1Bet Sports. Remember, City have won 11 successive games in all competitions and are unbeaten at the Etihad in 22 EPL outings since November 2022, while Chelsea have failed to score in just two of their 12 away matches.
- Tip 2: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: Similarly, there’s little value in betting on there being over 2.5 goals scored in the game, with this priced as low as 1.40 by some sportsbooks. However, these sides shared eight goals at Stamford Bridge back in November, while Chelsea are often too open in defensive transition and prone to making individual errors in the defensive third. City’s defence has also been more porous than usual this season, so you may want to consider backing over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.20 with Betway.
- Tip 3: Back Julián Álvarez as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you’re looking for effective use of any free bets that you have on your account, it may be worth backing Julián Álvarez as an anytime goalscorer. While Erling Haaland may be a more obvious pick here, Álvarez has scored three goals in his last five games against Chelsea, while he has eight EPL goals this season from an xG of just 8.4. So, he offers genuine value in this betting market at a price of 3.00 with PalmSlots Sports.
1️⃣ Man City Update
City’s recent run of form has been immensely impressive, with the side having reeled off 11 consecutive wins since a frustrating 2-2 draw at home to Crystal Palace on December 16th. Of course, the influential John Stones only appeared as a late substitute in this match, while City were still without the talismanic Haaland and De Bruyne at this time. This winning sequence has seen them score 32 goals, while their Norwegian number nine has already struck twice in three starts since his return. The Citizens have kept six clean sheets in their recent winning run, although only two of these have come in the Premier League.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen 1 Man City 3 | 13.02.24 Champions League |
| Man City 2 Everton 0 | 10.02.24 Premier League |
| Brentford 1 Man City 3 | 05.02.24 Premier League |
| Man City 3 Burnley 1 | 31.01.24 Premier League |
| Tottenham 0 Man City 1 | 26.01.24 FA Cup |
The Citizens will definitely be without Croatian defender Josko Gvardiol for the visit of Chelsea after the centre-back suffered an ankle ligament tear that will sideline him until early March. Both Jack Grealish (muscle injury) and Bernardo Silva (ankle) limped off in the 3-1 win over Copenhagen in midweek and will face late fitness tests ahead of the weekend. Mateo Kovacic has also picked up a knock and is doubtful, but he’s largely expected to be involved in the matchday squad against the Blues.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Josko Gvardiol | Ankle Ligament Tear |
| Jack Grealish | Muscle Injury |
| Bernardo Silva | Ankle Injury |
| Mateo Kovacic | Knock |
2️⃣ Chelsea Update
It’s incredible to think that Chelsea will be aiming to win successive EPL games for just the third time this season when they visit the Etihad at the weekend, with Mauricio Pochettino’s men struggling for any consistency in the Premier League. This is borne out by their recent form, which has seen the Blues win five and lose five of their last 10 top-flight games while taking 15 points from the 30 available to them during this time. Alarmingly, they’ve also conceded 18 goals during this sequence and nine in their last four matches alone. This defensive vulnerability has undermined the efforts of former City man Cole Palmer, who has 12 goals and nine assists in just 28 appearances for Chelsea this season.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1 Chelsea 3 | 12.02.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 3 | 07.02.24 FA Cup |
| Chelsea 2 Wolves 4 | 04.02.24 Premier League |
| Liverpool 4 Chelsea 1 | 31.01.24 Premier League |
| Chelsea 0 Aston Villa 0 | 26.01.24 FA Cup |
22-year-old centre back Benoît Badiashile is the latest addition to Chelsea’s injury list, with the Frenchman having recently undergone groin surgery. Fellow centre half Thiago Silva is also a doubt with a groin complaint, while Reece James (hamstring injury) and Marc Cucurella (ankle) aren’t expected to return until March. Midfielders Romeo Lavia and Lesley Ugochukwu (both hamstring) are unavailable too, while Wesley Fofana is continuing his rehabilitation following the cruciate ligament tear he suffered during the summer.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Benoît Badiashile | Groin Surgery |
| Thiago Silva | Groin Injury |
| Reece James | Hamstring Injury |
| Marc Cucurella | Ankle Injury |
| Romeo Lavia | Hamstring Injury |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | Hamstring Injury |
| Wesley Fofana | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
👕 Man City vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Man City 3-2-4-1 | Chelsea 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Ederson | D. Petrovic | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | K. Walker | M. Gusto | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Dias | A. Disasi | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | M. Akanji | L. Colwill | Centre Back |
| Defensive Midfielder | J. Stones | B. Chilwell | Left Back |
| Defensive Midfielder | Rodri | M. Caicedo | Midfielder |
| Right Midfielder | P. Foden | E. Fernandez | Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | K. De Bruyne | C. Gallagher | Midfielder |
| Attacking Midfielder | J. Alvarez | R. Sterling | Wide Forward |
| Left Midfielder | J. Doku | C. Palmer | Striker |
| Striker | E. Haaland | N. Jackson | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
