Chelsea vs Burnley Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 15:00 GMT, 30th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Chelsea to Win! |
| Odds | 1.33 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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While Chelsea remain frustratingly inconsistent, they’re currently embarked on a four-game undefeated run in the Premier League. This has provided a foundation for Mauricio Pochettino and his expensive assembled charges to build on, and they’ll be keen to extend this sequence when struggling Burnley arrive in West London at the weekend. However, the Clarets beat Brentford last time out and have now gone undefeated in two consecutive EPL matches, the first time they have achieved this feat in 2023/24. But can they spring a surprise at Stamford Bridge, or will Chelsea deliver on their status as favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites?
🏆 Chelsea vs Burnley EPL Prediction
Chelsea dominated the reverse fixture at Turf Moor on October 7th, running out comfortable 4-1 winners and producing an impressive xG of 1.98. They were creative and clinical in a rare display of their quality, while Burnley struggled defensively and only created a collective xG of 0.96 during the 90 minutes.
One of the issues for Burnley is that they like to be in control of the ball and have averaged 46.7% possession per 90 so far this season. However, the Blues are far superior in this regard, averaging 58.1% possession per 90 minutes and completing an impressive 91.7% of their short passes so far during the 2023/24 campaign.
Overall, the Blues’ weakness this season has been their efficiency in front of goal. In fact, only Brentford, Liverpool and Everton have missed more than Chelsea’s 51 big chances in front of goal. They’ve also underperformed their own xG of 50.1 by -4.1 goals, while Burnley tends to be a little more efficient with the fewer chances they create.
The Blues also have an error in them and have made 15 mistakes leading to an opponent’s shot at goal so far this season. While I can certainly see Burnley creating chances in transition scoring at the Bridge, however, I also envisage Chelsea dominating both the ball and territory and ultimately emerging with a comfortable win.
My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 3 – 1 Burnley ⚽
💯 Chelsea vs Burnley EPL Match Odds
Chelsea vs Burnley unlocks a huge selection of popular football betting markets, including the match winner, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the game. But how are these markets currently being priced?
🏅 Chelsea vs Burnley: Match Winner
Chelsea are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Burnley at Stamford Bridge, with their average price of 1.30 implying a 76.92% probability of a home win. As for Burnley, they can be backed to record what would be a surprise victory at around 10.50, suggesting that they have just a 9.52% chance of prevailing in West London.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to Win | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Burnley to Win | 9.00 | 9.00 | 8.90 | 10.00 | 10.50 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.85 | 6.00 | 5.80 |
⚽ Chelsea vs Burnley: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 67% of Chelsea’s EPL matches through 2023/24 but just 54% of their games at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have kept three clean sheets at home and failed to score on three occasions. Both sides have found the net in 64% of Burnley’s EPL away matches, with the Clarets keeping one clean sheet and failing to score on four occasions on the road.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| No | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 2.00 | 1.91 |
🥅 Chelsea vs Burnley: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
In total, Chelsea have contested 13 home matches in 2023/24, with these producing 43 goals at a rate of 3.30 per game. They’ve scored 23 of these goals at a rate of 1.76 per 90 minutes. Burnley’s 14 away games in the EPL have yielded 42 goals at a rate of exactly 3.00 per 90, but they’ve conceded a whopping 28 of these goals at 2.00 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
✔️ Chelsea vs Burnley - Betting Tips
Whether you want to bet your hard-earned cash or make use of any free bets that you have on your account, there are plenty of markets to choose from when wagering on Burnley vs Chelsea. Here are some tips to help you navigate these markets and maximise your potential returns!
- Tip 1: Back Chelsea to Win and Both Teams to Score: There’s little value in backing Chelsea to win outright (unless you commit a huge stake amount), but you can access enhanced odds through combination betting. For example, you can back the Blues to win and both teams to score at a price of 2.70 with Betway, with this factoring in Chelsea’s occasional defensive vulnerability and the fact that Burnley have scored in 10 of their 14 away matches so far this season (71.42%). In total, Chelsea have also conceded in 10 of their 13 home games in 2023/24.
- Tip 2: Back Chelsea in the Half-Time, Full-Time Market: Burnley have struggled during the first 45 minutes of their Premier League games so far this season, conceding 27 goals and scoring just 14 during this period. They’ve scored just once and conceded 12 times between minutes 16 and 30. Conversely, Chelsea’s aggregate score during the first half of their games is 22-16, so I think there’s value in backing the Blues to lead both at half and full-time at Stamford Bridge. You can get on this at a price of 1.91 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Raheem Sterling as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to wager on the anytime goalscorer market, winger Raheem Sterling appears to offer excellent value at a price of price of 7.00 with 1Bet Sports. He certainly starred in the reverse fixture back in October, scoring once and laying on two assists in Lancashire. Overall, Sterling has contributed three goals and four assists in 11 EPL appearances against Burnley, and I expect him to play at least some role at Stamford Bridge this weekend.
1️⃣ Chelsea Update
The Blues currently sit 11th in the Premier League, highlighting their enduring lack of consistency throughout the season. They’re also ninth in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, taking 17 points from the 30 available to them during this period. Alarmingly, they’ve only won two or more successive Premier League matches on two occasions this season, with their last such run featuring three consecutive victories between December 27th and January 13th. The good news is that the Blues are unbeaten in four EPL matches since February 4th, and this is already their longest sequence without defeat in 2023/24.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Chelsea 4 Leicester City 2 | 17.03.24 FA Cup |
| Chelsea 3 Newcastle 2 | 11.03.24 Premier League |
| Brentford 2 Chelsea 2 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| Chelsea 3 Leeds United 2 | 28.02.24 FA Cup |
| Chelsea 0 Liverpool 1 | 25.02.24 EFL Cup |
Chelsea will be hopeful that Christopher Nkunku recovers from his hamstring strain after an injury-ravaged season, while Carney Chukwuemeka (knock), Malo Gusto (illness) and Levi Colwill (foot) will also be assessed ahead of the weekend visit of Burnley. However, Lesley Ugochukwu (hamstring) remains sidelined along with club captain Reece James, who continues his recovery from a thigh injury and is scheduled to return towards the end of April. Neither Wesley Fofana (ACL) nor Romeo Lavia (thigh) will play again this season.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Christopher Nkunku | Hamstring Injury |
| Malo Gusto | Illness |
| Levi Colwill | Foot Injury |
| Romeo Lavia | Thigh Injury |
| Carney Chukwuemeka | Knock |
| Reece James | Thigh Injury |
| Wesley Fofana | ACL Injury |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | Hamstring Strain |
2️⃣ Burnley Update
When Burnley recorded a deserved win at home against Brentford last time out, they went two Premier League games without defeat for the first time during the 2023/24 campaign. However, the Clarets remain 19th in the EPL table and five points from safety, while they’ve won just one of their previous 10 top-flight matches. Overall, they’ve only taken six points from the previous 30 available and continue to struggle for any kind of consistency at all. Ultimately, they’re running out of time to preserve their top-flight status, so a win at Stamford Bridge would be both welcome and surprising!
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Burnley 2 Brentford 1 | 16.03.24 Premier League |
| West Ham 2 Burnley 2 | 10.03.24 Premier League |
| Burnley 0 Bournemouth 2 | 03.03.24 Premier League |
| Crystal Palace 3 Burnley 0 | 24.02.24 Premier League |
| Burnley 0 Arsenal 5 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
Burnley could welcome back Ameen Al-Dakhil (knock) and Jordan Beyer (thigh) ahead of the trip to Chelsea, although both players will be assessed throughout this week. The Clarets will definitely be without on-loan Chelsea strike David Fofana, who is ineligible to face his parent club and will be a huge loss in the attacking third. Luca Koleosho has also been ruled out until early May with a knee injury, while neither Nathan Redmond (thigh) nor Aaron Ramsey (knee) will play again this season.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Ameen Al-Dakhil | Knock |
| Jordan Beyer | Thigh Injury |
| David Fofana | Ineligible |
| Luca Koleosho | Knee Injury |
| Nathan Redmond | Thigh Injury |
| Aaron Ramsey | Knee Injury |
👕 Chelsea vs Burnley- Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Chelsea 4-2-3-1 | Burnley 4-4-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | D. Petrović | A. Muric | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | M. Gusto | L. Assignon | Right Back |
| Centre Back | A. Disasi | D. O’Shea | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | T. Silva | M. Estève | Centre Back |
| Left Back | B. Chilwell | C. Taylor | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Caicedo | Vitinho | Right Midfielder |
| Midfielder | E. Fernandez | J. Cullen | Central Midfielder |
| Midfielder | C. Gallagher | S. Berge | Central Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | C. Palmer | J. Larsen | Left Midfield |
| Striker | N. Jackson | L. Foster | Striker |
| Wide Forward | R. Sterling | W. Odobert | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
