Napoli v SC Braga Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionNapoli to Win!
Odds1.48
Bookmakerbetway
Napoli to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.48
Bet €100 and win €148 if Napoli win.
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
T&C
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Odds : 1.44
Bet €100 and win €144 if Napoli win.
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Odds : 1.43
Bet €100 and win €143 if Napoli win.
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€10
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napoli-v-sc-braganapoli-v-sc-braga

While Napoli are in pole position to claim second place in Champions League Group C and qualify for the round of 16, SC Braga can still overhaul them with at least a two-goal victory at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. This scenario reflects Napoli’s lack of consistent form and conviction this season, while their failure to beat Union Berlin at home in Gameweek four could ultimately come back to haunt them. But can they secure the result that they need to reach the UCL knockout stages for the second consecutive season, and how are best betting sites pricing all potential match outcomes?

🏆 Napoli v SC Braga UCL Prediction

Napoli and Braga played each other competitively for the very first time in Gameweek one, with the Serie A side recording a narrow 2-1 win at the Estádio Municipal on September 20th. However, the Neapolitan team have since won just one of their four UCL Group C games, scoring six goals and conceding eight.

So, this should be a competitive game and one that may become incredibly tense if Braga are able to score first. The away side are certainly comfortable on the ball and have averaged 53.80% possession during their five UCL matches so far (compared to Napoli’s 55.20%), while they’ve also produced 25.80 shot-creating actions per 90 and rank 12th in the 2023/24 tournament according to this metric.

However, Napoli’s tally of 29.60 shot-creating actions per 90 is the fifth highest in the competition, while star striker Victor Osimhen has now returned to full fitness just in time to kickstart the team’s campaign. Of course, Braga boast their own goal threat in the form of Portuguese winger Bruma, who has scored twice in Group C so far from an xG value of just 0.3.

Overall, I expect Napoli to rise to the occasion in front of their fans, while their superior individual quality should prove as decisive as it did in Gameweek one. The return of Osimhen may also be key, and I’m backing Napoli to win and both sides to score in Italy!

My Prediction: 🏆 Napoli 2 - 1 SC Braga ⚽

💯 Napoli v SC Braga UCL Match Odds

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Betting on the match result is just one market available through the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, alongside both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals scored in the game. So, let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re currently being priced.

🏅 Napoli v SC Braga: Match Winner

Napoli are heavy short-price favourites to defeat Braga in Naples, with their average price of 1.44 implying a 69.44% probability of a home win. You can back Braga to beat their opponents at around 6.00, which suggests that they only have a 16.66% chance of achieving this objective and keeping their UCL qualification hopes alive!

Team
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Napoli to Win1.401.481.431.401.44
SC Braga to Win6.505.756.156.506.00
Draw4.504.334.654.504.60

⚽ Napoli v SC Braga: Both Teams To Score

Both sides have scored in 12 of Napoli’s 19 matches in all competitions, with the side keeping five clean sheets and failing to find the net on just three occasions. However, they have also failed to score in their last two games at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, where their form has been patchy all season.

Yes/No
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tonybet-logotonybet-logo
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Yes1.731.781.741.731.73
No2.002.002.031.952.00

🥅 Napoli v SC Braga: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These two sides have contested 46 matches between them in 2023/24, with these encounters yielding 161 goals at a rate of 3.50 per game. Interestingly, Braga’s 27 encounters in all competitions (including UCL qualifiers) have yielded an astonishing 101 goals at a rate of 3.74 per 90 minutes, so they’ll definitely offer a significant goal threat in Italy.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.571.571.551.621.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.252.252.262.252.25

✔️ Napoli v SC Braga - Betting Tips

If you have some free bets on your chosen sportsbook account, you could consider matched betting as a viable strategy. However, there are other ways in which you can maximise value when wagering on the game between Napoli and Braga, so here are some tips to help you on your way.

  • Tip 1: Back Napoli to Win and Both Sides to Score: While Napoli are the favourites to beat Braga, there’s little value in backing them to win outright. However, you can create value by simultaneously betting on Napoli to win and both sides to score in a combination wager, which unlocks an enhanced price of 2.90 with Betway. Certainly, Braga boast an impressive goal threat that cannot be ignored, but Napoli should ultimately prove too strong for their opponents.
  • Tip 2: Back Bruma as an Anytime Goalscorer: While Napoli have many potent goal threats (especially since the return of Osimhen), Bruma is Braga’s main offensive player and joint top scorer in the 2023/24 Champions League. He’s quick, direct, and will look to exploit the space left behind Napoli’s high defensive line, while he has proven incredibly efficient with the chances that he’s had in the UCL. So, get on Bruma as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 5.50 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Napoli to Score First: While Braga have failed to score in the first 30 minutes of their five UCL games this season, they’ve shipped three goals during the same period. Napoli are also known to start games on the front foot and will have the backing of a vociferous crowd as usual in Naples, so I think that there’s excellent value in backing them to score first at the price of 1.43 with Dachbet Sports.

1️⃣ Napoli Update

Napoli are suffering a significant hangover after winning a historic Scudetto last season, with a win rate of just 47.37% in 2023/24 indicative of their inconsistency. In fact, they’ve only won nine of their 19 matches in all competitions, drawing four and losing six in total. Worryingly, all but one of these defeats have come at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium, where Napoli are now winless in six outings since a 4-1 victory over Udinese on September 27th. They’ve only scored six goals during this sequence, but the return of Osimhen to full fitness could prove to be transformative for the Serie A outfit.

Last 5 Games
Napoli 0
Inter 3
03.12.23
Serie A
Real Madrid 4
Napoli 2
29.11.23
Champions League
Atalanta 1
Napoli 2
25.10.23
Serie A
Napoli 0
Empoli 1
12.11.23
Serie A
Napoli 1
Union Berlin 1
08.11.23
Champions League

The return of Osimhen is excellent news for Napoli, although full backs Mathías Olivera (knee injury) and Mário Rui (hamstring) are out until Christmas at least. Fellow full-back Alessandro Zanoli was also ruled out at the weekend with lumbago, and a date has yet to be given for his return.

PlayerReason
Mathías Olivera Knee Injury
Mário Rui Hamstring Injury
Alessandro Zanoli Lumbago

2️⃣ SC Braga Update

Braga will arrive in Naples in relatively decent form, having won three and lost just one of their previous five games in all competitions. The Portuguese outfit has the exact same record away from home over the same number of matches, while they’ve only lost five times in all competitions through 2023/24 so far. However, three of these defeats have come in the Champions League, including their 2-1 reversal at home to Napoli in Gameweek one. The good news is that they’re unbeaten in four since losing to Real Madrid in Gameweek four, so they’ll be in relatively confident mood when they arrive in Italy.

Last 5 Games
Braga 3
Estoril Praia 1
03.12.23
Liga Portugal
Braga 1
Union Berlin1
29.11.23
Champions League
Portimonense 1
Braga4
25.11.23
Taca de Portugal
Arouca0
Braga1
12.11.23
Serie A
Real Madrid 3
Braga 0
08.11.23
Champions League

The really good news for Braga is that they don’t have any fresh injury concerns or suspensions ahead of their trip to Naples. So, they’ll be at full strength and raring to go, as they look to secure an unlikely win and keep their hopes of UCL qualification alive.

👕 Napoli v SC Braga - Potential Lineups

Pos. Napoli
4-3-3
SC Braga
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper A. Meret Matheus Goalkeeper
Right Back G. Di Lorenzo J. Mendes Right Back
Centre Back A. Rrahmani S. Saatçı Centre Back
Centre Back L. Skiri Østigård S. Niakate Centre Back
Left Back Natan C. Borja Left Back
Midfielder E. Elmas Carvalho Midfielder
Midfielder S. Lobotka Al-Musrati Midfielder
Midfielder A. Anguissa R. Zalazar Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Politano R. Horta Wide Forward
Striker V. Osimhen A. Djalo Striker
Wide Forward K. Kvaratskhelia Bruma Striker

Napoli to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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