Italy vs Wales Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - Six Nations (2023)

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TimetableSaturday 11th March 2023 at 14.15 GMT
PredictionWales to Win!
OddsWales to Win @ 1.80
BookmakerTonyBet Sports
The best odds
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.80
Bet €100 and win €180 if Wales win.
Odds : 1.83
Bet €100 and win €183 if Wales win.

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Match prediction 10 of 15 of our 2023 Six Nations betting series.

Prediction accuracy so far: ✔️ 88.89%.

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As we head into the penultimate round (week four) of the Six Nations 2023, there is one question on the lips of European rugby fans: who will lose this Italy vs Wales test and likely claim the wooden spoon? Italy have had a much better Six Nations campaign, currently poised for this match in fifth, whilst Wales hold the dreaded sixth spot - albeit with a litany of excuses as to why. The home-nation side will be looking to overturn their loss at the Principality in the 2022 competition, but will they be up to snuff to reap revenge on Italian soil? Kick off for Italy vs Wales will be 2.15 p.m., with all of the action taking place at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

The main man for this match will be Damon Murphy from Australia. Damon is known for his work officiating the National Rugby Championship (NRC) and for being a prominent figure on the panel for the World Rugby Sevens.

Before we get into the nitty gritty of how I think this one will play out, let's get some context of whom the best rugby betting sites think will have big grins at the end of 80 minutes.

💯 Italy vs Wales Betting Odds Six Nations

In the tables below I compiled the most competitive odds on Italy to beat Wales and vice versa.

🥇 Italy vs Wales Odds: Match Winner

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➕ Italy vs Wales Odds: Handicap Betting

These are the handicap betting odds on Italy vs Wales which are highly relevant for this match given the outcome in my score prediction further below.

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Italy (-2.5)2.412.40----2.40
Italy (-0.5)2.092.10----2.08
Italy (+1.5)1.801.80-1.77-1.911.80
Italy (+3.5)1.611.60----1.60
Italy (+5.5)1.46-----1.45
Wales (-5.5)2.55-----2.54
Wales (-3.5)2.192.20----2.20
Wales (-1.5)1.911.90-1.86-1.851.90
Wales (+0.5)1.671.65----1.66
Wales (+2.5)1.501.50----1.50

🏆 Six Nations 2023 Standings at Round 4

RankTeamPlayedWinsDrawsLossesPoints DifferenceBonus PointsTotal Points

Italy are in 5th and Wales are in 6th in the Six Nations. Based on the current standings, Italy should win this Italy vs Wales test.

🌏 Current Rugby World Rankings

30New Zealand88.98
40South Africa88.97

Italy are in 13th and Wales are in 10th in the world. Based on the current world rankings, Wales should win this Italy vs Wales test.

🐺 Italy Overview

✔️ Italy Form

⏪ Italy Six Nations 2022 Form

Italy may have won the wooden spoon, but the big talking point of the tournament, now relevant more than ever, was the fact that they managed to scrape an away win against Wales, 21-22. Given how close last year's test was, and considering Italy were not able to put much else together the rest of the competition, I would say that the Europeans form from last year doesn't serve us too well for this Italy vs Wales prediction. Let's take a look at the Italians' form from this year to see if we can paint a clearer picture of a match winner.

▶️ Italy Six Nations 2023 Form

In week one against France, Italy seemed as if they were off to a flyer, taking the world number-twos to the wire before France were forced to put in an almighty shift to grab a desperate win. They may have lost 24-29, but as far as Italian rugby fans were concerned, that was as good as a win. Italy were not as fortunate in their match against England, disappointing travelling fans with a 31-14 loss at Twickenham and failing to capture at least a bonus point as consolation. I had pegged week three to be something of a whitewash against Ireland, given the current dominance in world rugby by the Men in Green. Italy did end up falling short, 20-34, but again, for the minnows of the Six Nations, this still seemed a respectable score - or at least one might think so till you consider that the Irish rested eight players from their usual starting XV.

All in all, I think that, despite three losses, Kieran Crowley will be proud of the progress he has made with gli Azzurri since the start of his tenure as Head Coach. Italy are no longer the whipping boys of the Six Nations, and although they may not be up there with the best, they are at last showing improvement. Will a marked improvement be enough to secure Italy a win on Saturday, though?

❗ Updates about Italy Rugby

🐉 Wales Overview

✔️ Wales Recent Form

⏪ Wales Six Nations 2022 Form

I've discussed a few times how Wales's Six Nations from last year left nothing about which to scream and shout. They did manage to claw onto fifth place and avoid the ignoble wooden spoon, but that was having lost to Italy, 21-22. The same as I mentioned for Italy, I think the form of the Welsh from last year gives us little in the way of a favourite for Saturday.

▶️ Wales Six Nations 2023 Form

Wales have played three matches and lost all three, placing them worse off than they were by this stage of the Six Nations 2022. I predicted Wales having no chance against world leaders, Ireland. Lo and behold, I was right, and we saw Wales demolished by the Irish. Week two was a resounding success - just for Scotland, not Wales. Against the Scots, Wales looked particularly weak, with a crumb of a try being the only worthy mouthful in a 35-7 platter of points. Then, in a scrappy match against England at the Principality, the English managed to get one over their rivals in what I would argue was the worst match of the tournament.

Have the Men in Red any hope of turning around their Six Nations campaign, and will this Italy vs Wales test be their best chance for redemption? We shall have to see.

❗ Updates about Wales Rugby

🕵️ Italy vs Wales Prediction Winner Six Nations (2023)

As I stated when I started, Italy v Wales will be about who will win the wooden spoon. Wales will want to put out their best team and make good on their loss against their rivals from last year. Italy will see this as a chance to go two from two and to get the ball rolling on some kind of Six Nations winning streak. The key indicators are pretty even for both sides, but my experience is telling me that Wales will scrape a win by a score prediction of seven points. Why? It may end up being Italy's lack of killer instinct that the other tier-one teams possess or it could be that Wales will want to put on brave faces and use a likely solitary win as a distraction from all of the recent trouble with the WRU. Whatever the reason, a seven-point game will still be a win on the scoreboard.

Italy vs Wales prediction: Wales to win.

💶 Italy vs Wales Betting Tips Six Nations

Given how betting sites have priced their odds, I think betting on Italy vs Wales could prove the most lucrative to those considering a flutter on the Six Nations. I can see Wales taking this one, so odds of Wales to beat Italy at 1.80 appeal to me. Were I to have a go at the handicap bet, my preference would be Wales to win (-5.5 points) at 2.55. I think it's going to be a seven-point game, so this offers the closest option to my prediction and gives punters chance to make double their money in potential returns. Remember though! there are absolutely no guarantees in rugby, so please be sensible if you are going to stick a few euros on the game.

🎁 Italy vs Wales Six Nations Free Bets and Rugby Betting Promotions

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📺 2022 Test Match Highlights: Wales vs Italy

Watch the highlights from last year's Wales vs Italy test below:

⚡ Italy vs Wales Prediction and Betting Odds Summary

1️⃣ When is the Italy vs Wales kick-off?

Kick-off for Italy vs Wales will be 2.15 p.m. GMT on Saturday 11th March 2023.

2️⃣ Where will Italy vs Wales be played?

Italy will play at home at the Stadio Olimpico stadium in Rome.

3️⃣ Where can I stream Italy vs Wales?

Television rights in Ireland for the Six Nations 2023 are split between RTÉ and Virgin Media.

4️⃣ Who is my Italy vs Wales winner?

I think that Wales will win this Six Nations test.

5️⃣ What are some Italy vs Wales betting tips?

Based on my own analysis, I would offer the following betting tips for Italy vs Wales:

  1. Match winner: Wales to win at 1.80.
  2. Handicap bet: Wales to win (-5.5 points) at 2.55.

6️⃣ Are there any Italy vs Wales free bets?

See our Italy vs Wales free bets section for more details on rugby promotions.

7️⃣ Did Italy win their last 2023 Six Nations match?

No, Italy lost against Ireland, 20-34.

8️⃣ Did Wales win their last 2023 Six Nations match?

No, Wales lost against England, 10-20.

9️⃣ Will Italy or Wales win the Six Nations 2023?

It is statistically impossible for either side to win the competition at this stage. Check out my 2023 Six Nations outright prediction for whom I think will grab glory this year.

🔟 What are the odds on Italy to beat Wales?

2.10 @888sport are the best odds on Italy beating Wales.

✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster

This Italy vs Wales prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. His insight with his predictions comes from his rugby coaching qualifications, successes coaching youth and men's teams in both hemispheres, and from analytical research into world rugby.