Italy v England Six Nations Prediction, Betting Odds & Match Tips

⚽ Italy vs England Prediction

Prior to their Calcutta Cup showdown with Scotland on February 14th, fans and pundits were predicting an England Grand Slam and looking ahead to a potential title decider against France in gameweek five. However, it took just eight days to shatter these hopes and end England’s burgeoning invincibility.

The Irish defeat was perhaps the most damning, as the Shamrocks produced a record away win against their rivals and prevailed by 21 points. The Three Lions were exposed both tactically and in terms of their mentality, as they struggled to cope with the speed of Ireland’s attack and adjust their approach accordingly.

Despite conceding 73 points and nine tries during these defeats, a trip to Rome may provide the perfect tonic for England. After all, they've never lost a competitive or Six Nations match against Gli Azzurri, winning all 32 encounters and scoring 1,271 points at an average of 39.7 points per game.

England are also likely to ring the changes ahead of their trip to Italy. George Furbank is an intelligent player who can spot and utilise space in attack from fullback, while Northampton’s Fin Smith could add guile and adaptability at fly-half.

Leicester’s Jack van Poortvliet is also a decisive scrum half who has completed 391 in this season’s Gallagher Premiership so far. Of course, Italy have been much improved since 2023, winning four of thirteen Six Nations games.

Gli Azzurri had won just one of their previous 42 matches since 2015. However, they lack the squad depth and pedigree of England, who will be desparate to bounce back after two heavy losses. So, our Italy vs England 6 Nations prediction is that the Three Lions edge a competitive match.

🛡️ Italy vs England Betting Odds

The early Italy vs England rugby betting odds currently favour the Three Lions. You can back Borthwick’s men at an average price of 1.27, which implies a 78.7% probability of success.

Although this may reflect the Italy vs England rugby H2H record, these odds are a little short given the two sides’ respective form and Gli Azzurri’s significant improvement of late.

Amongst the best betting sites in Ireland, Italy can be backed at around 3.80. These odds imply a 26.3% probability of victory for Gonzalo Quesada’s team, who beat Scotland at home in gameweek one.

Here’s a full summary of the latest Italy vs England odds.

Team

Italy to Win

3.85

3.66

3.80

3.90

Draw (X)

31.00

23.00

24.00

23.00

England to win

1.26

1.22

1.29

1.325

Team

Italy to Win

3.85

3.66

3.80

3.90

Draw (X)

31.00

23.00

24.00

23.00

England to win

1.26

1.22

1.29

1.325

🚨 Italy vs England Six Nations Betting Tips

Before you make your choice of available Italy vs England Six Nations betting markets, it’s important to compare lines across the sites featured in our betting sites reviews.

We’ve also provided some expert Italy vs England betting tips below.

• Tip 1: Back Italy With a +8.5 Point Handicap

  Italy have won three of their six home matches since the start of the 2024 Six Nations (50.0%), with this form underpinning their significant improvement in the tournament.

  Although one of their three home defeats during this period was administered by England in February 2024, the Three Lions only prevailed by three points courtesy of the boot of George Ford.

  Gli Azzurri have won their sole home match in 2026, defeating Scotland 18-15 on the opening weekend. They beat Australia 26-19 at the Stadio Friuli in November too, recording their second successive home win over the Wallabies in the process.

  Ultimately, the Italians are now genuinely competitive on home soil, so England are unlikely to have things all their own way in Rome. The Three Lions don’t offer huge value in the 1x2 market either, so consider backing Gli Azzurri with a +8.5 points handicap at a price of 2.00 with

  Lunubet Sports
  .
• Tip 2: Bet on England to Win by Between 1 and 7 Points

  England have endured consistent struggles on the road under Steve Borthwick, and the team have yet to defeat Scotland, Ireland or France away from home under his tenure. They’ve also triumphed in just one of their last five Six Nations road games, dating back to the 2024 campaign.

  However, this sequence followed England’s aforementioned victory over Italy at the Stadio Olimpico, when George Ford contributed 17 points and five successful penalties in a narrow three-point triumph.

  Remember, the Three Lions have also won all 32 of their matches against Italy since October 8th, 1991. This includes 13 triumphs in Italy, which have also yielded 476 points at an average of 36.6 points-per-game.

  So, if you're more convinced of an England victory, back them to win by between one and seven points at a price of 3.75 with

  22Bet
  .
• Tip 3: Bet on Italy to Win the Race to 10 Points

  Although Italy struggled to contain France early on in their last Six Nations outing, they made quick starts against both Scotland and Ireland. They romped into a 12-0 lead inside 15 minutes against Scotland in Rome, before opening up a 10-5 half-time advantage over Ireland at the Aviva Stadium.

  In both of their heavy defeats against Scotland and Ireland, the Three Lions have been overpowered in the opening stages. They trailed 17-0 after the first quarter against the Scots, as Finn Russell starred and England’s kicking game faltered.

  At Twickenham, Ireland ran in three tries and led 22-0 after just half-an-hour as their speed of attack dominated.

  When Italy and England last did battle in Rome, Gli Azzurri were also 10-0 up after just 12 minutes, while they led 17-14 at half-time.

  Overall, we also expect Italy to start aggressively and take the game to England in Rome. Because of this, there’s value in backing them to win the race to 10 points, especially at competitive odds of 2.65 with

  TonyBet Sports
  .

✔️ Team Italy Form

⏪ Italy Six Nations 2024 Form

As we’ve touched on, Italy have won four of their last 13 Six Nations games since the beginning of 2024 (30.7%). This marks a stark up-turn in form for Gli Azzurri, who had triumphed in just one of their previous 42 matches in the tournament (2.3%).

Two of Italy's wins came in the 2024 campaign, when the side defeated Wales on the road (24-21) and Scotland at the Stadio Olimpico (31-29). They also held France to a 13-13 draw in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, before finishing fifth with an impressive 11 points.

▶️ Italy Six Nations 2025 Form

Italy couldn’t quite maintain the same level in the 2025 Six Nations, as they won just one of their five games and lost the remaining four.

Their sole triumph came in Rome against Wales, with Italy ultimately prevailing 22-15. However, they were thrashed 73-24 by 11-try France on February 23rd, 2025, while England defeated the Italians by 23 points at Twickenham.

Overall, Italy recorded six less points than in 2024 (five), while also conceding a significantly higher number of points (188 vs 126).

✔️ Team England Form

⏪ England Six Nations 2024 Form

The Three Lions have now lost two successive Six Nations matches, winning eight of their previous 13 since the beginning of the 2024 campaign (61.5%).

England were defeated twice in the 2024 Six Nations, with France prevailing 33-31 in Décines-Charpieu and the Auld Enemy Scotland triumphing by nine points in a high-intensity clash at Murrayfield.

This campaign saw George Ford contribute 48 points overall, including his five successful penalties in a three-point road win against Italy.

▶️ England Six Nations 2025 Form

England entertained Italy at Twickenham in the 2025 Six Nations, as they won 47–24 and ran in seven tries.

This was one of four victories during the campaign, as the Three Lions overcame an early defeat against Ireland at the Aviva Stadium. This sequence included a thrilling, one-point home triumph over France, which kickstarted an impressive 12-match winning streak that only ended in Edinburgh 10 days ago.

However, England only won once on the road in the 2025 Six Nations, as they thrashed Wales 68-14. This also remains their sole win in five away matches since February 2024.

Italy vs England - H2H Stats

Italy vs England Six Nations history makes for grim reading for fans of Gli Azzurri. Below, you'll find a summary of the last three matches between the two sides, which may help to inform your Italy vs England rugby betting picks.