Wales v Italy Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips | 6N 2024

Wales v Italy Six Nations 2024 prediction Wales v Italy Six Nations 2024 prediction
Timetable2.15 p.m., 16th March 2024
PredictionItaly to win!
Odds3.60
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Italy to win!
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13 of 15 of our Six Nations betting predictions.

Written by Steven Brown.

Prediction accuracy 2024: ✔️ 66.67%.

Wales v Italy Wales v Italy

Here we are at round five of the Six Nations Championship 2024. We kick off Super Saturday and the last weekend of the competition at 2.15 p.m. on the 16th of March.

The referee for the day will be Mathieu Raynal. He will be assisted by Chris Busby and Morné Ferreira. Our TMO will be Joy Neville.

This match will have no reflection on who wins the Six Nations Championship, but both teams will want to avoid the infamous wooden spoon for last place in the table. Which team will grab one last iota of glory? Let us get stuck into my Wales v Italy prediction.

💯 Wales v Italy Betting Odds Six Nations

Fancy a bet on Wales v Italy? Find out what odds are on offer from top rugby bookmakers in this dedicated betting section.

🥇 Wales v Italy Match Winner Odds

I am surprised to see the match winner odds go against Italy, given their recent form, but does that make for interesting betting opportunities? See what odds you can claim for the winner below.

Team
1Bet Sports 1Bet Sports
Wales Wales
1.361.361.331.301.33
X22.0022.0026.0019.4026.00
Italy Italy
3.603.603.403.323.50

➕ Wales v Italy Handicap 3-Way Odds

Again, it is interesting to see the handicap options giving the advantage to Italy, but perhaps that just makes things more thought-provoking for potential bettors. Have a look what handicap options you could claim below.

Team
1Bet Sports 1Bet Sports
Wales Wales

(0-9)
---1.93-
Wales Wales

(0-8)
--1.85-1.85
X

(0-9)
---17.00-
X

(0-8)
--26.00-26.00
Italy Italy

(0-9)
---1.78-
Italy Italy

(0-8)
--1.95-1.90

🏮 Wales v Italy Asian Handicap Odds

With Asian handicap options in both directions, I think there is plenty for you to consider when it comes to having a flutter on this game. Find out more in the table below.

Team
1Bet Sports 1Bet Sports
Wales Wales

(-8.5)
1.911.921.901.841.90
Wales Wales

(+3.5)
--1.12--
Italy Italy

(+8.5)
1.851.851.901.781.83
Italy Italy

(-3.5)
--5.33--

Odds accurate at time of writing. Odds subject to change.

🔍 Wales v Italy Winner Prediction

There is a lot of pressure on both teams to perform - especially looking in Warren Gatland's direction, considering he may be wondering if he will have a job with Wales in next year's Six Nations if his side lose this game. There are plenty of predictors into which we can dig, so let us break down who looks more likely to be our winner on Saturday.

History

Wales and Italy have contested a total of 32 rugby test matches since their first meeting in 1994. Wales have won 28 of those matches, and Italy have won three matches. There has also been one drawn match between the two nations. Past performance therefore points to a Welsh win.

Last Performances

Wales MatchesResult
Wales v Scotland26-27
England v Wales16-14
Ireland v Wales31-7
Wales v France24-45
Italy MatchesResult
Italy v England24-27
Ireland v Italy36-0
France v Italy13-13
Italy v Scotland31-29

Wales have had one of their worst Six Nations campaigns to date. Despite putting in emphatic performances for half of each match they have played, they have ultimately come up short by the end of every game.

The Italians, on the other hand, have had a glorious time by their standards, having battled France to a draw and beaten Scotland last week.

Overall, it seems that the Italians are in better stead, going into this game, so recent performances may tell a different tale to history.

World Rankings

Wales are a fraction above Italy in the world rankings, eighth versus tenth. This seems to point to a Welsh win, but the margins are so slim that this may not seem much of a convincing predictor.

Home Advantage

The Principality stadium will be the supporters' fortress for this last game. Italy do not have the travelling supporters of the other nations, so there will be a home advantage for Wales. This may be a key feature that decides this game.

Weather

The weather is predicted to be 13°C with cloud and rain. This may give Wales a slight advantage, but Italy should favour fine if the precipitation remains light.

Game Play Styles

We are still waiting to see what style of play will come to the forefront of Welsh play. Their style has flip-flopped tremendously during this competition and they have not manage to garner more than a good 40 minutes per game. Till they can manage the full 80 every match, they may end up always playing for the wooden spoon.

Italy's old-school style of play has given way to more dynamic, modern playing. The Italians are now as comfortable trying to dominate the scrum as they are taking the play wide through quick hands. They are also able to make good use of their forwards when defending, which gives them a more solid structure when under the gun.

Out of the two styles of play, Gonzalo Quesada will be the happier of the two Head Coaches: his side, even in as short a tenure as he has had so far, seem to be coming together and producing crucial results. This indicator therefore seems to give credit to the idea of an Italian win.

Winner Summary

I believe this will be a titanic struggle that will go down to the wire. My money is going on Italy to win, but I think this will be achieved by only five points.

🏉 Italy to win by 5 points!

Italy Italy

✔️ Wales v Italy Betting Tips

1️⃣ Match Winner: Italy to Win

This one is an easy one for me. As I am going against the grain, or at least against who the bookies think are the favourites, I would be more than happy to consider having a flutter on Italy to win at 3.60 at 1Bet Sports.

2️⃣ Handicap Winner: Italy to Win (-3.5)

This may not be the option with the longest odds that I have ever offered in my betting tips, but Italy to win (-3.5) at 5.33 at LegendPlay Sports is certainly out there. Still, given that I think the Europeans will put in a good shift for this last match and win by five points, this betting tip does not seem all that daft after all. Just remember to gamble responsibly in case the bookies get the last laugh.

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📰 Six Nations News for Wales v Italy on X

Discover the latest news for both teams ahead of Wales v Italy.

🐉 Wales Updates

🛵 Italy Updates

📺 2023 Wales v Italy Highlights

See below for last year's Wales v Italy Six Nations highlights.

⚡ Six Nations Wales v Italy Prediction at a Glance

1️⃣ When will Wales v Italy kick off?

Kick-off for Wales v Italy will be 2.15 p.m. GMT on Saturday, the 16th of March 2024.


2️⃣ Where will Wales v Italy be played?

Wales v Italy will be played at the Principality Stadium, Cardiff for the 2024 Six Nations Championship.


3️⃣ Who is my Wales v Italy winner?

I predict that Italy will win by 5 points.


4️⃣ What are some Wales v Italy betting tips?

  1. Match winner tip: Italy to win at 3.60 at 1Bet Sports.
  2. Handicap betting tip: Italy to win (-3.5) at 5.33 at LegendPlay Sports.

See our Wales v Italy betting tips section for details.

5️⃣ Can I use free bets for Wales v Italy?

Yes, there are free bets you can use for this game. See our Wales v Italy free bets promotions section for details.


Italy to win!

✒️ Steven Brown - Sports Writer and Rugby Expert

Steven Brown

This prediction was written by Steven Brown.

In 2023, 81.71% of my predictions were correct.