Scotland vs Italy Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips - Six Nations 2023

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TimetableSaturday 18th March 2023 at 12.30 GMT
PredictionScotland to Win!
OddsScotland to Win @ 1.05
Scotland to Win!
The best odds
1.
Boyle​Sports
Odds : 1.06
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2.
Sportaza
Odds : 1.05
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Match prediction 13 of 15 of our 2023 Six Nations betting series.

Prediction accuracy from rounds one to four: ✔️ 91.67%.

scotland-versus-italy-rugby scotland-versus-italy-rugby

Super Saturday is creeping closer, but how super is it going to be for Scotland vs Italy in this year's Six Nations championship? The match winner of this test will not influence which team will go on to win the title, but there is still fresh chance to bag bragging rights and the Cuttitta Cup. Plus, both sides will relish one last opportunity in the Six Nations 2023 to build towards the Rugby World Cup later in the year.

Scotland and Italy have faced off in 34 matches in total, with this year's home side having stuck in the knife an unsurprising 26 times to Italy's eight wins. The most recent encounter in March 2022 was won 22-33 by the Scots, who are again favourites for this one. How will they fare this time out? We will have to see when all of the action kicks off at Murrayfield at 12.30 p.m. local time.

Angus Gardner from Australia will be the man in the middle. Angus is very much qualified to officiate what is likely to be an exciting game, having been awarded World Referee of the Year in 2018.

Before we take a look at a few of the key indicators for my Scotland vs Italy prediction, I will give my usual overview of odds from the best betting sites.

💯 Scotland vs Italy Betting Odds Six Nations

Most of the best rugby betting sites offer match winner and handicap odds as their bread and butter. Here is what is being offered for Irish punters so far.

🥇 Scotland vs Italy Odds: Match Winner

As can be seen below, Scotland are by far the clear favourites for this match.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win
1.051.061.041.101.061.051.10
Draw31.0041.0025.5041.0041.0036.0031.00
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win
8.009.008.557.509.009.007.00

➕ Scotland vs Italy Handicap Odds

If you weren't sure before of how much the bookies favour a Scottish win, handicap points ranging from 13.5 to 21.5 may give you an idea.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win (-21.5)
-----2.33-
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win (-19.5)
2.05----2.05-
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win (-17.5)
1.80-1.771.881.851.80-
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win (-15.5)
1.60----1.621.91
scotland-flag scotland-flag
Scotland to win (-13.5)
1.50----1.47-
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win (+13.5)
2.50----2.50-
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win (+15.5)
2.10----2.161.91
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win (+17.5)
1.90-1.851.881.911.90-
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win (+19.5)
1.70----1.69-
italy-flag italy-flag
Italy to win (+21.5)
-----1.52-

🏆 Six Nations 2023 Standings before Round Five

Scotland have managed two wins and two losses in the competition thus far; Italy have meanwhile accrued four losses. Below is a look at the standings, going into round five of the competition.

RankTeamPlayedWinsDrawsLossesPoints For/AgainstPoints DifferenceBonus PointsTotal Points
1Ireland4400122/56+66319
2France4301133/97+46215
3Scotland420292/84+8210
4England420284/106-22210
5Wales410356/106-5015
6Italy400475/123-4811

The current standings have Scotland in third place and Italy in sixth place. The only idea we can garner from this is that Scotland are the favourites to win.

🌏 Current Rugby World Rankings

After four matches for each side this year, the current world rankings stand as follows:

RankShiftNationPoints
10Ireland91.82
20France90.47
30New Zealand88.98
40South Africa88.97
50Scotland82.77
60England82.12
70Australia81.80
80Argentina80.72
9+1Wales78.08
10-1Japan77.39
110Samoa76.03
120Georgia75.94
13+1Fiji74.84
14-1Italy74.63
150Tonga71.21

I think it's fair to say that fifth place and 14th are worlds apart. The current world rankings seem also to point to a Scottish win.

🦄 Scotland Overview at Round 5

✔️ Scotland Form

⏪ Scotland Six Nations 2022 Form

Scotland fans were not overly impressed with Gregor Townsend after last year's performances kept them in the second tier of the Six Nations - fourth behind England on points difference. Yes, they may have beaten Italy away, 22-33, but that was still only an 11-point game at a time when nobody expected anything of gli Azzurri. Looking at last year's form, then, you may perhaps not expect too much of a thumping from the Scots this Saturday.

▶️ Scotland Six Nations 2023 Form

Two wins and two losses so far, with only an 'easier game' against Italy left to go, suggests Scotland could go one better than last year's Six Nations. How did the Scots play over the first four rounds, though?

Week one was a bit of a treat for the fans, with the Scots beating England. This was an excellent win for the away side, with them robbing the Calcutta Cup from their neighbours for the third year running in a tense 23-29 battle at Twickenham. This was the only Six Nations prediction I have got wrong in the competition so far.

The second week saw Scotland drub Wales, 35-7 in front of an ecstatic home crowd at Murrayfield. At this point, many thought Gregor Townsend's men may come through the Six Nations championship as the dark horses of the competition.

Week three was where the first bout of heartbreak set in, however. France put the Scots to the sword in a 32-21 clash at the Stade de France, leaving no doubt in the minds of rugby fans as to why the French are second in the world.

Finally, round four gave us Scotland vs Ireland - an opportunity for the home side to pull the rug from under Ireland. Unfortunately, Grand Slam hopes for the Irish went unspoiled. Despite playing free-flowing rugby based around some exciting players, the Irish had strength in depth and outplayed their hosts, 22-7, all 80 minutes long.

Still, it has been a relatively good Six Nations for Scotland - one that suggests they may end up marking more of a mark than usual in the upcoming World Cup in France. As for this Scotland vs Italy match, I think my prediction is still leaning towards the side of the Scottish. Let's have a look at an overview of Italy in the next section and see if my mind can be changed.

❗ Updates about Scotland Rugby

🐺 Italy Overview

✔️ Italy Recent Form

⏪ Italy Six Nations 2022 Form

Gli Azzurri are never seen as prime contenders for the Six Nations, and the tradition of them winning the wooden spoon continued in 2022. At least they made history by beating the Welsh, 21-22, but all in all, last year's set of performances does not overturn my initial thoughts on 2022 form that Scotland may win this one.

▶️ Italy Six Nations 2023 Form

The Italians have lost four from four so far, but have there been any moments of magic that could sway my mind on what may already seem an open-and-shut case?

In week one, Italy took France to the wire. Yes, they may have fallen short by the conclusion, but I am sure that Italian fans would have been content with the final score of 23-29 and to pick up a bonus point for losing within seven against last year's Grand Slam winners.

Week two was not as successful for Italy against England, with the home side only being able to conjure a 17-point loss, 31-14, much to the disappointment of away fans at Twickenham.

Following on in week three, Italy hosted Ireland to the tune of 14 points inequality on the scoreboard. It wasn't a poor performance from gli Azzurri, but one has to wonder what would have happened on the day had Ireland not rested almost half of their usual starting line-up.

Were the home side able to repeat last year's glory when Italy welcomed Wales to the Stadio Olimpico in week four? It seems that the Welsh may have been bitter about the 2022 scoreboard and were determined to shake the doubt from fans' minds, turning the knife with the final score of 17-29.

It's been a shame for the Europeans so far in the competition, and sadly for them, with the way that Scotland have been recently, my head is telling me this Scotland vs Italy test may only go one way: not theirs.

❗ Updates about Italy Rugby

🕵️ Six Nations Scotland vs Italy Prediction (2023)

Although the outcome of this match will make no difference in who wins the Six Nations 2023, I still believe this is going to be a good game. This will be a close-fought encounter, at least in the first half, with Italy looking to throw the kitchen sink at the Scots. The home side's free-flowing style, however, will come into its own in the second half, and Scotland's superior fitness and skills will likely be the deciding factor in breaking down a defensive, physical game from Italy.

My heart wants this to be a close game throughout, to give world rugby one last Italian spectacle from this year's Six Nations, but I think there will be a tipping point in the game where the crowd will see Italy crumble. I would bet on Scotland to win this one by at least 14 points.

Scotland vs Italy prediction: Scotland to win.

💶 Scotland vs Italy Betting Tips

I doubt many would be interested in taking Scotland to beat Italy at 1.05, so let's swiftly move on to handicap betting. Looking at the longer odds, Scotland to beat Italy (-13.5 points) at 1.50 may be worth more consideration, but there is a lot more risk involved, given Italy's best game in the 2023 Six Nations was a loss only by six points against the world's second best side. It's up to you what you go for, if you fancy a flutter, but I personally would not be looking at any handicaps past the aforementioned -13.5 mark.

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📺 2022 Test Match Highlights: Italy vs Scotland

Watch the highlights from last year's Italy vs Scotland test below:

⚡ Six Nations Scotland vs Italy Prediction Summary

1️⃣ When is the Scotland vs Italy kick-off?

Kick-off for Scotland vs Italy will be 12.30 p.m. GMT on Sunday 12th March 2023.


2️⃣ Where will Scotland vs Italy be played?

Scotland will play at home at Murrayfield stadium in Edinburgh.


3️⃣ Where can I stream Scotland vs Italy?

Television rights in Ireland for the Six Nations 2023 are split between RTÉ and Virgin Media.


4️⃣ Who is my Scotland vs Italy winner?

I think that Scotland will win this Six Nations test.


5️⃣ What are some Scotland vs Italy betting tips?

Based on my own analysis, I would offer the following betting tips for Scotland vs Italy:

  1. Match winner: Scotland to win at 1.05.
  2. Handicap bet: Scotland to win (-13.5 points) at 1.50.

6️⃣ Are there any Scotland vs Italy free bets?

See our Scotland vs Italy free bets section for more details on rugby promotions.


7️⃣ Did Scotland win their last 2023 Six Nations match?

No, Scotland lost against Ireland, 7-22.


8️⃣ Did Italy win their last 2023 Six Nations match?

No, Italy lost against Wales, 17-29.


9️⃣ Will Scotland or Italy win the Six Nations 2023?

It is now impossible for either Scotland or Italy to win the competition. I am going to stick with my outright prediction for the Six Nations 2023 and go with Ireland to win overall.

Scotland to Win!

✒️ Steven Brown - International Sports Writer and Tipster

This Scotland vs Italy prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven is an internationally revered rugby coach and sports writer. His insight with his predictions comes from his rugby coaching qualifications, successes coaching youth and men's teams in both hemispheres, and from analytical research into world rugby.