Italy vs Scotland: How Many Times Must Rome Fall?

Banner featuring the logo of the Rugby Six Nations tournament next to the flags of Italy and Scotland
TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 12th of March at 14:15 GMT
PredictionScotland to Win
OddsScotland to Win @ 1.06
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Odds : 1.06
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The Stadio Olimpico will be alive and kicking with another huge rugby test, as Italy host Scotland on Saturday, the 12th of March. Italy have had another miserable run so far, in the Six Nations betting tournament of 2022, but they will be hoping to turn things around, against an underperforming Scotland, and put a smile on the fans' faces in Rome. Have they any hope of home honours? Let's delve into this preview and prediction at what both teams can bring to the pitch, come kick-off as well as Italy v Scotland odds from the best betting sites.

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Background on Italy vs Scotland

Italy have certainly been late bloomers in the sport of rugby, which explains why the first Italy vs Scotland match took place only as far back as 1996. Compared to their performances against their other Six Nations rivals, however, Italy have managed minor success against Scotland, racking up eight wins. That's not to say that Scotland have not proved the Italians the weaker side historically, though, as they have made the Continentals suffer on 25 other occasions. Based on all previous results alone, this is shaping up to be another comprehensive win for Scotland.

Six Nations Results So Far

History can tell us one thing, but recent form is another predictor we can use to identify a victor. Below, I have highlighted all of the matches and results from the first three weeks of this year's competition, in order that we may garner a greater clue of the potential of both teams, going into this clash.

Italy Results

MatchScoreWinner
France vs Italy37-10France
Italy vs England0-33England
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland

Scotland Results

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales
Scotland vs France17-36France

Analysis of Results

Well, the first thing to notice is that I can see Italy in the list of matches, but I can't see their name in the winner's column.

So far, this has been another disastrous year for the Italians, continuing their Six Nations losing streak: now up to 35 defeats in a row. Interestingly, their last win came against Scotland in 2015, when they edged out the Scottish 19-22, away at Murrayfield.

Could there be another upset this year? Although Scotland are likely the greatest chance for an Italian victory this year, Scotland have still managed to grasp some success in their first week, narrowly clinching a 20-17 win against England. On that basis, I think this is going to be another case of same old, same old for European rugby, and that Scotland will grab the points here.

Performance in the Six Nations 2021

Can last year's game provide any assurance of Italian strength? Not unless you count Murrayfield's 52-10 obliteration of Gli Azzurri as anything but the absolutely humiliating affair that it was for the Italians. Going on last year's result, I doubt anyone would allude to anything but another severe win for Scotland.

World Rankings Updated 2022

With world rankings updated, let's take a look to see how World Rugby gives credit to the two nations.

New World RankingCountryOld World RankingShift
1South Africa1No change
2New Zealand2No change
3France4+1
4England3-1
5Ireland5No change
6Australia6No change
7Wales8+1
8Scotland7-1
9Argentina9No change
10Japan10No change

You may notice that Scotland have dropped a place in the rankings, now finding themselves worse off in eighth. What can be said of the Scottish, however, is that they at least make it into the top-ten list. Italy, coasting well below that standard, find themselves in 14th place, barely able to keep above Tonga (16th), a nation whose team barely plays an international game, never mind finds the time to train together. All in all, Italy's ranking is a decisive comment on their lack of ability, compared to Scotland, and I feel this is just another indicator of the whitewash to come.

How Players Have Scored in the Six Nations 2022 So Far

If Italy stand any chance of winning, they need to be able to get some points on the board. Let's take a look at how well they have grown to that challenge so far.

Italian Players

PlayerNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop GoalsTotal Points
Paolo Garbisi01208
Tommaso Menoncello10005
Edoardo Padovani00103

Scottish Players

PlayerNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop GoalsTotal Points
Finn Russell027025
Rory Darge10005
Darcy Graham10005
Duhan van der Merwe10005
Ben White10005
Stuart Hogg01002

Analysis of Points Scoring

What can you really say about these statistics? 16 points in three games is repugnant for a modern rugby nation that is competing with the best. In three games, Scottish fly-half, Finn Russell, has claimed nine points more than the entire Italian squad has, so I think that tells you about Italy's chances, going into this match.

The 16th Man: The Effect of the Home Crowd at the Stadio Olimpico

The crowd will make no difference in this match. The teams are worlds apart in quality, so a few passionate Italy rugby fans will make no difference to the thumping their team are going to get.

My Italy vs Scotland Prediction Winner

I always find any Italy Six Nations prediction difficult to write: how can you find any positives about a nation with consistent bouts of underwhelming performances in a competition? It feels cruel to highlight how not up to scratch the Italians are, but then it feels equally as cruel to have them play in the competition at all, watching them take battering after battering every week, when there are plenty of up-and-coming nations that would love the chance to take their place and show the world the rugby they have to offer.

This is a no-brainer for me:

Scotland to bury Italy in the first half and continue the humiliation till the final whistle

Steven Brown - Rugby Coach and Writer

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This prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven grew up in the football-mad town of Cannock, Staffordshire, in the UK, but he was introduced to rugby at the age of 11. He was a keen player in his youth, and went on to set up a successful sports agency, working with rugby stars such as Leicester legend and England captain, Martin Corry.

Steven’s great love for the game has also led him to exemplary coaching success, having coached men’s and youth teams in the UK, Luxembourg, New Zealand and Malta. Two of his personal highlights from his time coaching came in the form of having six All Blacks lead a one-and-a-half-hour coaching and QA session for an U14s team he had helped to set up and a Best Coaches conference where he had the privilege of talking rugby with a coaching idol of his, Graham Henry. Steven is now pursuing his love of coaching once more, back in the UK.

You can follow Steven Brown on his Linkedin.

Scotland to Win