Ireland vs Scotland: A Celtic Clash to Claim the Centenary Quaich

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TournamentSix Nations
TimetableSaturday 19th of March at 16:45 GMT
PredictionIreland to Win
OddsIreland to Win @ 1.14
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Ireland to Win
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Odds : 1.14
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Odds : 1.13
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Everything has fallen into place for week five of the Six Nations 2022, with the second match of three, Ireland vs Scotland, looking to bring all of the drama as you can tell from the odds above. I expect fireworks from the Aviva Stadium on Saturday, as Ireland hope to grab their fourth win from five games and that France slip up, to gift the Irish the Six Nations title. Will the luck of the Irish pay off? Could it be the case that Scotland spoils the party early? Read on to find out all of my thoughts on the winner.

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Background on Ireland vs Scotland

The first Celtic clash between these two sides took place in 1877, whereby Scotland win by six goals to nil. Yes, the Ireland vs Scotland game dates back so far that the scoring system has entirely changed for modern rugby. In the 138 matches that have taken place over the course of history, Ireland have won 67 times, Scotland have won 66 times, and there have been fives matches that ended with a draw. The fact that there is only one win different between these two giants of rugby suggests to me that this is going to be a fierce match that is going to be won on more than history.

Six Nations Results So Far

One of the key influencers that always catches my eye is recent form. Let's take a look at how both teams have managed to perform in earlier rounds, to see if we can establish the more likely winner, going into their final battle.

Current Six Nations 2022 Standings

RankingCountryGames PlayedWinsDrawsLossesPoints DifferenceBonus Try PointsTotal Points
1France440056218
2Ireland430184416
3England420217210
4Scotland4202-8210
5Wales4103-2726
6Italy4004-12200

Ireland Results

MatchScoreWinner
Ireland vs Wales29-7Ireland
France vs Ireland30-24France
Ireland vs Italy57-6Ireland
England vs Ireland15-32Ireland

Scotland Results

MatchScoreWinner
Scotland vs England20-17Scotland
Wales vs Scotland20-17Wales
Scotland vs France17-36France
Italy vs Scotland22-33Scotland

Analysis of Results

Ireland have come out the better team in this competition, with three wins compared to two, but is that such a difference between the two sides? I would argue yes, because Ireland find themselves in second position, due to all of the bonus tries. For me, the standings teem with hints of an Irish win, but let's see if that can be backed up elsewhere.

Performance in Last Year's Six Nations 2021

Last year's competition took place at Murrayfield, but the 24-27 scoreline was not one which kept the home crowd happy. Is this a good indicator that Ireland will be able to pull off another close win? The Irish will surely hope that is the case, and I think it's just another sign that my prediction is going Ireland's way.

How Players Have Scored in the Six Nations 2022 So Far

Rugby has many facets that teams need to master. Successful attacking play is one of those musts, because players need to be able to score points if their team has any chance of winning. Below, I have laid out how players from each team have managed to grab points in the competition so far.

Ireland Players' Points

PlayerNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop GoalsTotal Points
Johnny Sexton0103029
Joey Carbery151018
James Lowe300015
Andrew Conway200010
Jamison Gibson-Park200010
Michael Lowry200010
Bundee Aki10005
Ryan Baird10005
Finlay Bealham10005
Jack Conan10005
Mack Hansen10005
Hugo Keenan10005
Peter O'Mahony10005
Garry Ringrose10005
Kieran Treadwell10005
Josh van der Flier10005
Total201540142

Scotland Players' Points

PlayerNumber of TriesNumber of ConversionsNumber of PenaltiesNumber of Drop GoalsTotal Points
Finn Russell067033
Chris Harris200010
Darcy Graham200010
Stuart Hogg11007
Rory Darge10005
Sam Johnson10005
Duhan van der Merwe10005
Ben White10005
Total977080

Analysis of Points Scoring

For a starter, 142 points absolutely decimates Scotland's 80 points. Ireland have also managed to find the try line more than twice as many times as their rivals. All in all, these statistics seem to be screaming of another win for Ireland.

The 16th Man: The Effect of the Home Crowd at the Aviva Stadium

What seems to be lining up to being another bruising for Scotland is made worse by the fact they will have to take their show on the road. With the Scots being hosted at the Aviva this week, fans of Ireland rugby are going to be in high spirits, cheering on the men in green, in hopes of lifting the Centenary Quaich again.

My Ireland vs Scotland Prediction Winner

I can tell that there are going to be a few optimistic Scotland fans that are going to disapprove of this rugby prediction. Nevertheless, there is not much of an alternative that I can offer to them, given that the gut feeling of many around the world is backed up by the statistics. I think it's going to be an exciting, close game, but I still think there are going to be a lot of smiles in the crowd, when the full-time whistle blows.

Steven Brown - Rugby Coach and Writer

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This prediction was written by Steven Brown.

Steven grew up in the football-mad town of Cannock, Staffordshire, in the UK, but he was introduced to rugby at the age of 11. He was a keen player in his youth, and went on to set up a successful sports agency, working with rugby stars such as Leicester legend and England captain, Martin Corry.

Steven’s great love for the game has also led him to exemplary coaching success, having coached men’s and youth teams in the UK, Luxembourg, New Zealand and Malta. Two of his personal highlights from his time coaching came in the form of having six All Blacks lead a one-and-a-half-hour coaching and QA session for an U14s team he had helped to set up and a Best Coaches conference where he had the privilege of talking rugby with a coaching idol of his, Graham Henry. Steven is now pursuing his love of coaching once more, back in the UK.

You can follow Steven Brown on his Linkedin.

Ireland to Win