Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup 2023 | Tips, Odds & Prediction

Friday, June 23rd will see the penultimate day of Royal Ascot horse racing betting in 2023, which will in turn play host to the Commonwealth Cup. This sprint race is run over six furlongs, while it has been contested by some of the best thoroughbreds through history. Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup betting has already started ahead of the 2023 iteration, so here’s my take on race and the most likely winners.

🏆 Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup Prediction

According to the latest ante post Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup betting odds, Aidan O’Brien’s ‘Little Big Bear’ is the clear favourite to prevail. Despite trailing last in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, the three-year-old colt rebounded superbly by winning the Group 2 Betfred Nifty Fifty Sandy Lane Stakes last time out.

He was prominent throughout and won comfortably over the six furlongs at Haydock, while it’s hard to escape the fact that he was one of the brightest two-year-olds throughout the 2022 season. So, while Sakheer, Shaquille and Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style will also compete here, I expect Little Big Bear to claim a sixth career win in just eight outings and prove the horse racing betting pundits right.

🏇 Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup Betting Preview

No Commonwealth Cup betting guide would be complete without a wider look at the most likely winners. So, here’s a Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup preview of these runners and how they’ve prepared for the race.

1️⃣ Little Big Bear

Little Bear’s long-awaited return at Newmarket at the beginning of May came after a 273-day hiatus, and the sports betting world was stunned to see him trail last in a field of 14 and finish 24 lengths behind winner Chaldean.

While this cast doubt over his Commonwealth Cup credentials, he returned to form in the Group 2 Nifty Fifty Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock, beating a stellar field and Shouldvebeenaring by 1 ¼ lengths. This was the ideal preparation for the Commonwealth Cup, while Little Big Bear also has historic form at Ascot having won the Class 1 Windsor Castle Stakes last year.

• 2.63 at BoyleSports
• 2.63 at Betway
• 2.63 at Palm Slots

2️⃣ Sakheer

Interestingly, second favourite Sakheer also endured a disappointing QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, trailing seventh after being held up in the rear before weakening significantly 110 yards out.

However, this three-year-old colt has won two of his four career outings and earned another second-place finish, while he was superb when edging the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes last September. The Roger Varian-trained runner also excels over shorter distances, so he offers good value as either an outright or each-way bet with the best betting sites in 2023.

• 6.00 at BoyleSports
• 6.00 at Betway
• 7.00 at Palm Slots

3️⃣ Shaquille

If there’s one colt arriving at Ascot in outstanding form it’s Shaquille, who has won his last four sprint outings dating back to October 2022 and prevailed on five out of six career starts. During his last outing on May 20th, the Julie Camacho-trained runner won the Class 1 BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes by two lengths from Desert Cop, pulling clear one furlong out and triumphing comfortably in the end.

He’s another runner who excels over six furlongs or so, and while he’ll be making his Grade 1 debut at Ascot, he at least offers significant value as an each-way bet.

• 9.00 at BoyleSports
• 8.50 at Betway
• 9.00 at Palm Slots

⭐ Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup Betting Tips

Before you engage in Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup 2023 betting, it’s important to inform your picks with relevant course and race insights. Here are some expert Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup betting tips to keep in mind.

✅ Avoid Long Price Runners

If you appraise the latest Commonwealth Cup odds from the operators featured in Betinireland’s detailed bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that only a handful of runners are priced at odds of 13.00 or under. Interestingly, no winner of the last eight Commonwealth Cup iterations has had a starting price higher than 13.00, while three ante post favourites have won during this time. So, be sure to favour short and medium-priced horses here, while I’d also avoid outright betting on any runner at odds of 13.00 or over.

✅ Prioritise Group 1 and Group 2 Pedigree

When analysing all Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup results over the last eight years, we can see that an impressive 31% have prevailed in at least one Group 2 race during their career. This seems to be a key indicator of success in the Commonwealth Cup, while it would seem to cast doubt on the chances of the 2023 third favourite Shaquille. Conversely, Little Big Bear has won both Group 1 and Group 2 races during his career, while Sakeer’s September win at Newby came in the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes.

✅ Analyse the Best Jockey – Trainer Partnerships

Last year, a final day double earned Ryan Moore top jockey status for a ninth time, while he has ridden a single winner and two runners-up in the last eight years at the Commonwealth Cup. What’s more, his partnership with Aidan O’Brien has been particularly generative at Royal Ascot. O’Brien is also the most successful individual trainer at the Commonwealth Cup in recent times, fielding one winner and two placed horses out of 14 runners since 2015. So, look out for Moore’s confirmed rides in the coming days and prioritise runners that also feature O’Brien before engaging in Royal Ascot betting.

📊 Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup Winners

Frequently Asked Questions About the Commonwealth Cup Betting 2023

✒️ Lewis Humphries iGaming and Sports Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced sportswriter and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the horse racing and key events from across the UK and Ireland, including the Irish Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National. He’s also providing extensive coverage and predictions for the 2023 Easter Festival at Fairyhouse.