Epsom Oaks 2023 Prediction | Tips & Odds

Epsom Oaks 2023 Epsom Oaks 2023
TournamentEpsom Oaks
TimetableFriday June 2nd
PredictionRunning Lion to Win!
OddsRunning Lion to Win @ 6.50
Running Lion to Win!
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While the Epsom Derby is open to both colts and fillies, the similarly prestigious Oaks Stakes is restricted to three-year-old fillies only. The 2023 iteration of this Group 1 race will take place on Friday, June 2nd, so here’s my expert betting preview and Epsom Oaks Prediction!

🏆 Epsom Oaks Prediction

Epsom Derby and Oaks Epsom Derby and Oaks

Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old filly ‘Savethelastdance’ is currently the overwhelming Epsom Oaks betting favourite, but I think she may be priced a little short given that her recent wins at Chester and Leopardstown were underwhelming and achieved in the presence of weakened fields.

Arguably, there’s far better value to be found when backing John Gosden’s ‘Running Lion’, who has triumphed on four of her five career starts to date and won superbly in the Class 1 Howden Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket in her last outing. Gosden also has form at Epsom and is the only trainer since 2013 to achieve success in the Oaks apart from O’Brien, so my Epsom Oaks winner prediction is that Running Lion will ultimately prevail.

My Prediction – Running Lion to Win!

🏇 Epsom Oaks Betting Preview

Before you start engaging in Derby horse racing betting, here’s a more comprehensive Epsom Oaks final preview and a brief glimpse at the most likely winners.

1️⃣ Savethelastdance

While Savethelastdance was impressive when winning both the Weatherby’s Digital Solutions Cheshire Oak and the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Chester and Leopardstown respectively, both races featured significantly weakened fields. The runner also struggled on her debut in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden at Thurles last October, struggling from the outset before losing further ground two furlongs out.

So, although she’s won over a similar distance to Epsom, Savethelastdance may struggle in more exalted company, and despite the undoubted pedigree of Aidan O’Brien’s stable, she offers minimal sports betting value at such a low ante post price.

2️⃣ Running Lion

John Gosden has claimed three Epsom Oaks wins in the last nine iterations, while he’s the only trainer to prevail other than Aidan O’Brien during this period. So, the three-yar-old filly ‘Running Lion’ is definitely a contender for the 2023 Oaks, especially with an impressive career record of four wins in five starts.

This run includes four consecutive wins over one mile or more dating back to August 2022, while her last triumph on May 7th in the Howden Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket saw her power clear one furlong out before beating the fancied Sumo Sam by 4 ½ lengths.

3️⃣ Caernarfon

If you’re in the market for an outside Epsom Oaks final betting tip, you may want to consider backing Jack Channon’s 34.00-shot ‘Caernarfon’ to win with a nominal stake. This particular filly is relatively seasoned with eight career races, two wins and six top-three finishes to her name, including an excellent win in the Class 1 British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes at Newmarket last October.

The three-year-old also performed superbly when placing fourth in the Group 1 Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes, staying in contention throughout the one mile run and finishing strongly. At the very least, this durable and consistent runner offers huge value as an each-way betting despite her ante post price.

⭐ Epsom Oaks Betting Tips

No preview or Epsom Oaks final betting guide of this type would be complete without some insightful and expert betting tips, which are based on observable trends and historical data.

📌 Check the Most Recent Form

You should always check the form when predicting winners, particularly in difficult to call races like the Oaks Stakes. Interestingly, the runners’ most immediate form is most insightful at Epsom, with 57% of Oakes winners since 2002 having also finished first in their previous race. What’s more, 86% have of this number have won having finished in the top two in their last outing, so be sure to check how runners have fared most recently before betting.

📌 Consider the Whole Field

The Epsom course is renowned for its sharp and challenging bends, which is just one reason why the average starting price of Epsom Oaks winners since 2002 is relatively high at 11.00. The 51.00-shot ‘Qualify’ was successful in 2015, while the aforementioned Caernarfon is also fancied to do well despite her ante post price of 34.00. So, be sure to factor this into your betting picks, by considering the credentials of the whole field and taking starting prices with a pinch of salt.

📌 Identify Relevant Betting Offers

You’ll find an array of Epsom Oaks final betting offers in play ahead of this iconic race, each of which will have its own unique structure and rewards. From fixed value free bets to extra place promotions and daily price boosts, these bonuses suit different type of wagers and can be used strategically to either boost your returns or minimise the risk of loss. So, compare the market in detail before identifying the most relevant betting offers and promotions ahead of the Epsom Oaks showpiece.

⚡ Epsom Oaks Winners

Here are the winners from the past five years:

YearName of HorseTimeJockeyTrainer
2018Forever Together2:40:39Donnacha O’BrienAidan O’Brien
2019Anapurna2:36:09Frankie DettoriJohn Gosden
2020Love2:34:06Ryan MooreAidan O’Brien
2021Snowfall2:42:67Frankie DettoriAidan O’Brien
2022Tuesday2:37:83Ryan MooreAidan O’Brien

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About the Epsom Oaks Prediction

What Horse is Favourite for the Epsom Oaks?

Aidan O’Brien’s Savethelastdance is the clear ante post favourite to win the 2023 Epsom Oaks, while John Gosden’s duo of Soul Sister and Running Lion are deemed to be the most likely challengers.

What is the Best Way to Bet on the Epsom Oaks?

If you want to leverage the best value ante post prices and organise your bankroll efficiently, I’d recommend that you wager online and at one of Betinireland’s recommended sportsbooks. You should also bet as early as you can when placing outright and each-way wagers, as prices have a tendency to drift as the race draws closer.

What is the Most Common Horse Bet?

Backing an outright winner is the single most popular type of horse bet, with this even money wager incredibly straightforward and easy to understand. Each-way betting is also popular, as are forecast wagers and accumulators (when betting on multiple races at the Epsom Derby Festival).

Where Can I Bet on the Epsom Oaks?

Betinireland has already reviewed and recommended the best Epsom Oaks final betting sites, so you can select your preferred option based on your own chosen criteria. Just be sure to check out Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, which compare sportsbooks across a huge and important range of metrics.

Running Lion to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries iGaming and Sports Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced sportswriter and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about horse racing and key events from across the UK and Ireland, including the Irish Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National. He’s also providing extensive coverage and predictions for the 2023 Easter Festival at Fairyhouse.

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