Epsom Derby 2023 Prediction | Tips & Odds

The 2023 iteration of the Epsom Derby will take place on Saturday, June 3rd. This will be the 244th installation of this iconic race, but who are the key contenders and what’s my Epsom Derby winner prediction for 2023?

🏆 Epsom Derby Prediction

Auguste Rodin and Military Order are the ante post favourites for the 2023 Epsom Derby, with the former being largely tipped by pundits despite his disastrous performance when placing 12th in a field of 14 at the 2000 Guineas Stakes on May 6th. The colt weakened considerably three furlongs out, in only his third outing over a distance of one mile.

Conversely, the Charlie Appleby-trained four-year-old Military Order was superb when winning the Lingfield Derby trial over 1 mile, four furlongs on May 13th, while he also romped home by four lengths in the Class 2 Darley Novice Stakes at Newbury on April 21st. So, he’s in form and has demonstrated his ability over the distance, so my Epsom Derby Prediction is that Military Order will prevail.

🏇 Epsom Derby Betting Preview

To put my prediction into greater context, here’s a more detailed Epsom Derby final preview and closer look at the three main contenders.

1️⃣ Military Order

Overall, Military Order has three wins from four career starts, the first of which came at Newmarket in October 2022. However, it’s his two most recent victories that have really captured the attention of punters, with Military Order pacing himself well during both outings before pulling clear two furlongs from home.

Certainly, the Epsom track favours well-balanced and durable runners over rapid thoroughbreds and this suits Military Order perfectly. At the same time, Charlie Appleby’s colt has proven himself more than capable over distances of one mile or longer, so he can be relied on to stay that course at Epsom Downs and is a justifiable Epsom Derby betting favourite.

• 4.50 at BoyleSports
• 4.33 at Betway
• 4.50 at Palm Slots

2️⃣ Auguste Rodin

Aidan O’Brien’s runners have won six of the last 11 Derbies, and Auguste Rodin is fancied to extend this run in 2023. Certainly, most of the Epsom Derby final betting sites featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews have made the three-year-old colt the narrow ante post favourite, while the runner also has three career wins in five flat race outings.

However, it’s hard to overstate just how much Auguste Rodin struggled in the coveted 2000 Guineas Stakes, as he struggled to compete over the mile-long course and weakened considerably against stellar opposition. O’Brien tried to mitigate his performance after the event, but I’m not sure Auguste Rodin offers value as an outright winner.

• 4.00 at BoyleSports
• 4.00 at Betway
• 4.33 at Palm Slots

3️⃣ Arrest

John Gosden’s three-year-old colt ‘Arrest’ has seen his ante post price fall markedly in recent days, most notably after his superb showing at the Class 1 Boodles Chester Vase Stakes. Here, Arrest raced wide and took a keen hold early on, before pulling clear two furlongs out and ultimately beating Adelaide River by 6 ½ lengths.

Overall, Arrest has won three of his five career outings and earned an additional second place finish (narrowly trailing Derby rival Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud last October). So, he undoubtedly offers value at least as an each-way bet ahead of the Derby and remains highly appealing among Epsom Derby betting enthusiasts.

• 7.00 at BoyleSports
• 7.00 at Betway
• 6.50 at Palm Slots

⭐ Epsom Derby Betting Tips

To help inform your wagers and ante post picks, I’ve also prepared some expert Epsom Derby final sports betting tips ahead of the 2023 showpiece.

📌 Make Use of Each-Way Betting

The one mile, four-furlong Derby track is defined by sharp turns and a challenging gradient, so it’s typically a difficult race to predict. So, it may be worth using each-way betting strategically when backing potential winners, as this will help you to recoup at least some of your stake if your selections place well. By wagering with sportsbooks that also offer extra place promotions ahead of the race, you can also cash in even if your runner places fifth or sixth, while making use of compatible free bets is also highly recommended when minimising your risk.

📌 Give Weight to Trainers’ Performance at Epsom

As I’ve already touched on, Aidan O’Brien has dominated at Epsom since 2012, winning six Derbies and seven Oaks in the last 11 years. Interestingly, John Gosden is the only trainer to challenge O’Brien during the Epsom Oaks, and both trainers have fancied runners in this years’ Derby. So, be sure to give weight to this insight and place your wagers with historical form and performances in mind.

📌 Consistency and Durability Beats Pace at Epsom

The Epsom Derby is essentially a middle-distance flat race, which means that it’s rarely favourable to quick thoroughbreds. With the course’s sharp bends also contributing to a typically stop-start race, the Derby favours balanced and durable runners who are proven over the distance and able to pace themselves. This includes ante post second favourite Military Order, so be sure to check each runner’s form over the relevant distance and their running times before wagering.

⚡ Epsom Derby Winners

Here are the winners from the past five years:

❓ Frequently Asked Questions About the Epsom Derby Prediction

✒️ Lewis Humphries iGaming and Sports Betting Expert

Lewis Humphries is an experienced sportswriter and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about horse racing and key events from across the UK and Ireland, including the Irish Grand National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National. He’s also providing extensive coverage and predictions for the 2023 Easter Festival at Fairyhouse.