Dublin vs Offaly Prediction: Leinster Football Semi Final

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Timetable28th April, 16:00 GMT
PredictionDublin To Win!
Dublin To Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.02
Bet €100 and win €102 if Dublin win.

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Odds : 1.01
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This weekend will see Dublin and Offaly meet in the Leinster Championship for the first time since 2007, as they do battle in the provincial semi-finals at the iconic Croke Park. ‘The Dubs’ are on the hunt for a 14th consecutive Leinster Championship, while they’ll also look to successfully defend their All-Ireland SFC title later in the campaign. So, third division Offaly will definitely start as the football betting underdogs this weekend, although they did beat neighbours Laois for the first time since 2002 at the quarterfinal stage.

🏆 Dublin vs Offaly Leinster Championship Prediction

Offaly started their last eight clash against Laois like a train, scoring four points without reply in the first six minutes and eventually prevailing by eight points. However, Laois spent their 2024 league campaign in Division Four (although they ultimately finished as champions), while they were reduced to 14 men after just 20 minutes against ‘The Faithful County’ following the dismissal of cornerback James Kelly.

Make no mistake; Dessie Farrell’s Dublin outfit will offer a much sterner challenge at Croke Park, with the defending Leinster and All-Ireland champions having recently finished as runners-up to Derry in Allianz Division One. They also thumped Meath by a margin of 3-19 to 0-12 in their own provincial quarterfinal, with Paul Mannion, Con O’Callaghan and Sean Bugler all scoring goals in front of their home fans.

The experienced duo of Ciarán Kilkenny and Colm Basquel were as impressive as ever in this last eight clash too, while keeper Stephen Cluxton made his first appearance of the campaign against the Royals. Basquel and Cluxton were two of six Dub’s players who made the Sunday Game’s All Ireland Team of the Year in 2023, highlighting the immense individual quality that exists within the squad.

The good news for Offaly is that they also reached the Leinster semi-finals in 2023, after impressive victories over Longford and Meath. Forward Dylan Hyland has also impressed this season and scored five points in the win over Laois, and he’ll undoubtedly pose a threat to the Dublin defence (if he’s fit to play). However, the Dubs boast incredible experience and know-how, and it’s hard to see past a convincing win for the home side at Croke Park.

My Prediction: 🏆 Dublin to win!

💯 Dublin vs Offaly Leinster Championship Odds

As I’ve touched on, Ireland’s market-leading betting sites have made Offaly the heavy betting underdogs to defeat Dublin in the Leinster SFC last four. Remember, the Dubs haven’t been beaten in the Leinster SFC since 2010 (when Meath hit them for five goals at Croke Park), while they’ve now won 18 of the previous 19 provincial titles. But how exactly is the win market being priced ahead of this semi-final clash?

🏅Dublin vs Offaly: Match Winner

Incredibly, you can back Dublin to defeat Offaly at Croke Park at an average price of 1.02. This implies a 98.03% probability of a home win, highlighting the chasm that exists between these two teams and the Dubs’ immense pedigree in the Leinster SFC. As for Offaly, they can be backed at around 26.00 to end their opponent’s 14-year unbeaten provincial run, suggesting that they have just a 3.84% of achieving this objective. You can get odds of 34.00 on the game ending in a draw during normal time, so there’s only a 2.94% probability of this outcome occurring.

Dublin to WinTBCTBC1.02TBC1.01
Offaly to WinTBCTBC15.00TBC18.00

✔️ Dublin vs Offaly - Betting Tips

If the win market doesn’t appeal to you ahead of the Leinster clash between Dublin and Offaly, the good news is that there are plenty of alternative betting markets that you can explore. These include handicap betting and the Half-Time/Full-Time market, both of which may help to create value and enable you to wager at enhanced odds. So, here are some relevant betting tips to consider.

  • Tip 1: Back Dublin in the Half-Time/Full-Time Market: There’s certainly little value to be found in backing Dublin to beat Offaly outright unless you’re able to commit a huge stake. However, you can create a little more value by betting on the Dubs to lead at both half and full-time, which makes sense given their likely dominance at Croke Park and the fact that they led their quarterfinal match against Meath by five points at the break despite a lacklustre start. You can get on this market at price of 1.04 with BoyleSports.
  • Tip 2: Back Dublin to Win with a Handicap of -21 Points: If you want to access more favourable odds or make use of one of your available free bets, you could consider backing Dublin to win with a significant handicap. Remember, they ultimately defeated Meath by an impressive 16 points at Croke Park, while last season’s final victory over Louth saw the Dubs prevail by an incredible 21-point margin. So, there’s value in backing Dublin to defeat Offaly with a handicap of -21 points at the weekend, especially at the enhanced price of 2.10 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Con O'Callaghan as an Anytime Goalscorer: Dublin’s 28-year-old forward Con O’Callaghan scored an excellent goal against Meath in the last eight, taking his career tally for the Dubs to 20 in 66 appearances. He has also plundered 136 points since making his debut for the team in 2016. In 23 Leinster SFC matches alone, he has a record of 7-62, establishing him as one of the most dangerous attacking players in the province. He certainly offers value as an anytime goalscorer against Offaly and can be backed in this market at a price of 1.36 with BoyleSports.

1️⃣ Dublin Update

The perceived lack of competitiveness in the Leinster SFC has been discussed for years now, but this should not distract from Dublin’s achievement of winning 13 successive provincial titles. More recently, they’ve also won four of their previous five competitive matches since the beginning of March, although their sole defeat during this run did come in the showpiece Allianz Division One final against Derry (after extra-time and a penalty shootout). Offaly fans may also draw solace from the Dubs’ slow start against Meath on April 14th, which saw Dessie Farrell’s men display an unusual lack of intensity and cohesion. However, they still won comfortably, thanks in part to their immense experience and unmatched ability to manage games.

Last 5 Games
Dublin 3-19
Meath 0-12
Leinster Senior Football Championship
Dublin 2-21
Derry 3-18
Allianz Football League Division 1
Dublin 5-18
Tyrone 0-12
Allianz Football League Division 1
Galway 0-14
Allianz Football League Division 1
Derry 1-11
Dublin 1-16
Allianz Football League Division 1

Double footballer of the year Brain Fenton will return to the Dubs squad this Sunday, after sitting out the quarterfinal win over Meath due to suspension. Defender Michael Fitzsimons is now also back to full fitness and expected to start at Croke Park, while James McCarthy was introduced as a second-half substitute last weekend. The Dubs reported no new injury concerns after their victory in the last eight.

2️⃣ Offaly Update

Offaly have endured a difficult 2024 so far, placing sixth in the Allianz Division 3 table and accruing just five points from their seven league matches. However, despite going winless in February and suffering slender defeats to Antrim and Clare during this calendar month, they’ve since strung together a four-match unbeaten run that culminated in their eight-point victory over Laois in the Leinster SFC quarterfinals. This sequence also included a 20-point thrashing of Wicklow at Glenisk O’Connor Park, which helped to ward off the threat of relegation to Division Four and highlighted the combined attacking threat of the aforementioned Hyland and Cormac Egan at half-back.

Last 5 Games
Offaly 2-13
Laois 1-8
Leinster Senior Football Championship
Offaly 1-10
Limerick 0-12
Allianz Football League Division 3
Sligo 0-13
Offaly 1-10
Allianz Football League Division 3
Offaly 5-15
Wicklow 0-10
Allianz Football League Division 3
Down 4-12
Offaly 2-14
Allianz Football League Division 3

The big concern for Offaly is the availability of Dylan Hyland, who was withdrawn in the 57th minute of the quarterfinal win over Laois with a groin strain. He’ll be assessed this week ahead of the trip to Croke Park but is being tipped to start against the Dubs. Nigel Dunne will also return to the squad after missing the last eight victories through suspension, which was incurred following his late dismissal during the narrow victory over Limerick in March.

Player Reason
Dylan HylandGroin Injury

👕 Dublin vs Offaly - Potential Lineups

Goalkeeper S. Cluxton I. Duffy Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back S. Macmahon L. Pearson Right Corner-Back
Half-Back M. Fitzsimmons D. Hogan Half-Back
Left Corner-Back E. Murchan D. Dempsey Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back B. Howard C. Egan Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back J. Small P. Cunningham Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back S. Bugler J. Furlong Left Half-Back
Midfielder B. Fenton E. Carroll Midfielder
Midfielder C. Kilkenny J. McEvoy Midfielder
Right Half-Forward J. McCarthy D. Hyland Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward K. McGinnis R. McNamee Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward N. Scully J. Hayes Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward P. Mannion K. O’Neill Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward C. O’Callaghan N. Poland Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward C. Basquel J. Bryant Full Forward

Dublin To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.