Dublin v Louth: Prediction & Odds - Leinster Football Finals

Dublin v louth final may Dublin v louth final may
TimetableSunday 12th May at 13:45 GMT
PredictionDublin To Win!
OddsDublin to Win @ 1.02
Dublin To Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.02
Bet €100 and win €102 if Dublin win.

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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.01
Bet €100 and win €101 if Dublin win.

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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.01
Bet €100 and win €101 if Dublin win.

It was business as usual for Dublin in the Leinster Championship last four, as they thrashed Offaly by 20 points to reach their 14th consecutive provincial final. Here, they’ll meet Louth in a repeat of the 2023 final, with ‘The Wee County’ having now qualified for the showpiece provincial match in successive seasons for the first time since 1958. The Dubs prevailed by a 21-point margin last year after a five-star showing at Croke Park, however, winning the title for a record-extending 13th successive time. But will they triumph again in 2024, and what football betting odds can you get on a Louth victory?

🏆 Dublin v Louth Prediction

Although underdogs Offaly were competitive throughout much of their Leinster semi-final clash with Dublin, they still trailed by nine points at the break and were quickly overwhelmed at the beginning of the second period. Forwards Con O'Callaghan and Niall Scully were particularly impressive in the attacking third, where Offaly simply couldn’t cope with a barrage of long and accurate diagonal balls into the full-forward line.

Louth were similarly impressive in their last four victory over Kildare at Croke Park, pulling ahead of their opponents in the 22nd minute and remaining in front until the final whistle. Capital Sam Mulroy contributed seven points to a comfortable four-point win, while fellow forward Conor Grimes was typically powerful and impressive in the attacking third.

However, Dublin’s semi-final victory over Offaly was their 41st consecutive Leinster win, since the 2011 quarterfinal against Laois. The Dubs haven’t been beaten in the provincial championships since June 27th, 2010, when Meath struck five goals to eliminate them at the semi-final stage. Incredibly, Louth haven’t defeated them in the Leinster Championship since the 1973 final, further highlighting the challenge facing the Wee County this weekend.

Louth’s National League form was also patchy this season, as they finished just above the relegation places in Division 2 and lost four of their seven matches. However, defending All-Ireland champions Dublin had to settle for second place in Division 1 and finished as runners-up to Derry in the divisional final, with the Dubs recording losses to Mayo and Monaghan during the campaign.

These losses prove that Dublin aren’t infallible (especially defensively) and may encourage slightly more optimism among Louth fans, but the difference in quality is such that’s hard to look past another comfortable win for Dublin in the final.

My Prediction: 🏆Dublin to win!

💯 Dublin v Louth Odds

When you wager on the Leinster Championship final, you’ll see that Ireland’s best betting sites are offering a huge selection of markets and wager types. Some of these are likely to be more popular than others given Dublin’s provincial dominance, such as handicap betting and wagering on the final winning margin. Half-time/Full Time betting is also available, which may help to create value when looking to back Dublin to win at enhanced odds.

Dublin v Louth: Match Winner

When it comes to the win market, Dublin are priced prohibitively at around 1.01. Incredibly, such odds imply a 99% probability of a Dubs victory, highlighting their recent dominance of the Leinster championship and head-to-head record against Louth. Alternatively, those of you who want to bet on the Wee County to stun the defending champions can do so at an average price of 23.00, suggesting that they have just a 4.34% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is priced at 41.00, implying just a 2.43% probability of the match being tied after 70 minutes.

Dublin to Win 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.01
Louth to Win 23.00 21.00 15.00 23.00 26.00
Draw 41.00 41.00 26.00 41.00 41.00

Dublin v Louth - Betting Tips

dublin-v-louth-logo dublin-v-louth-logo

As you can see, there’s very little value to be found in backing Dublin to defeat Louth outright in the Leinster final, unless you’re able or willing to commit a huge stake. The good news is that there are plenty of other betting markets on which you can stake your real money balance or available free bets, while player props may offer particular value ahead of the Leinster final.

  • Tip 1: Back Dublin to Win with a Handicap of -14.5 Points: Dublin thrashed Offaly by 20 points in the last four, despite not being at their best. They also boast four of the six biggest all-time winning margins in Leinster finals, including 21-point thrashings of Louth last year and Meath in 2020. However, the Dubs showcased some vulnerability during their National League campaign, with their defence particularly open in the one-point defeat against Monaghan. So, consider backing Dublin to win with a slightly reduced handicap of -14.5 points, which unlocks the enhanced price of 1.73 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Dublin to Win by 16 Points or More: Another way of creating value when backing the Dubs to win is to bet on the margin of victory. This often requires you to be a little more precise than with handicap betting, although it should be noted that Dublin have won their last eight Leinster provincial matches by a combined total of 136 points since the beginning of the 2022 Championship. This equates to an average winning margin of 17 points per match, while their 41 successive Leinster wins have seen them score an impressive 90 goals in total at a rate of 2.19 per game. So, consider backing the Dubs to win by a margin of 16 points or more at a price of 1.91 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Con O'Callaghan to Score 2 or More Goals: Con O'Callaghan remains one of the Dubs' most potent forwards, having struck three goals and 34 points during the side's National League campaign in 2024. He has contributed another two goals during the run to the Leinster final, while he has seven Championship goals in just 23 career appearances for Dublin since his debut in 2016. He's in a rich vein of form too and scored a hattrick in the 10-point victory over Kerry on February 24th, so get on O'Callaghan to score two or more goals at the competitive price of 2.50 with BoyleSports.

⚽ Dublin Update

Dublin’s provincial dominance remains a controversial talking point, but this shouldn’t detract from the incredible levels of consistency and professionalism showcased by the Dubs’ during their 41-match Leinster winning run. They’re also the All-Ireland champions and reached the Allianz Division 1 final in the National Football League, despite worrying defensive lapses against both Monaghan and Mayo. Since their defeat to The Green above the Red on February 3rd, they’ve won seven of their eight matches in all competitions, while Derry needed a penalty shootout to beat them in the Division 1 final. So, they’ll arrive at Croke Park in typically exceptional form and in a confident mood.

Last 5 Games
Dublin 3-22
Offaly -0-11
Leinster Senior Football Championship
Dublin 3-19
Meath 0-12
Leinster Senior Football Championship
Dublin 2-21
Derry 3-18
Allianz Football League Roinn 1 - Final
Dublin 5-18
Tyrone 0-12
Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Galway 0-14
Dublin 0-22
Allianz Football League Roinn 1

The Dubs were boosted by the return of two-time footballer of the year Brian Fenton during the semi-final win over Offaly, after the midfielder had served a one-match suspension against Meath. James McCarthy is also fit again after recovering from a knee injury and is in contention to start at Croke Park on Sunday.

⚽ Louth Update

Although Louth endured a challenging league campaign in Allianz Division 2, victories over Fermanagh and Kildare in their final two matches helped them to finish in sixth place and avoid relegation by a single point. Manager Ger Brennan has now overseen four successive victories in all competitions too, including a seven-point win over Wexford in the Leinster quarterfinals and the aforementioned triumph against Kildare in the last four.

Skipper Sam Mulroy is also in outstanding form and will look to probe any vulnerability in the Dubs’ defence, having struck 4 goals and 30 points in Louth’s league campaign and two further goals in the 2024 Leinster Championship so far.

Last 5 Games
Kildare 0-13Louth 0-17 28.04.24Leinster Senior Football Championship
Louth 4-10Wexford 0-15 14.04.24Leinster Senior Football Championship
Kildare 0-12Louth 1-12 23.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Louth 6-17Fermanagh 0-11 16.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Donegal 1-17Louth 0-15 03.03.24Allianz Football League Roinn 2

Louth’s Leinster semi-final win over Kildare saw the long-awaited return of Ciaran Byrne, with the former AFL player having not played competitively in more than a year due to a serious knee injury. The question that remains is whether he’ll start at Croke Park in the final, especially as Louth’s forward line has performed well in recent matches.

👕Dublin vs Louth - Potential Lineups

Pos. Dublin6-2-6 Offaly6-2-6 Pos.
Goalkeeper S. Cluxton N. McDonnell Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back S. Macmahon D. McKenny Right Corner-Back
Half-Back M. Fitzsimmons D. Corcoran Half-Back
Left Corner-Back E. Murchan P. Lynch Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back B. Howard C. McKeever Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back J. Small A. Williams Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back S. Bugler N. Sharkey Left Half-Back
Midfielder B. Fenton T. Durnin Midfielder
Midfielder T. Lahiff P. Mathews Midfielder
Right Half-Forward J. McCarthy C. Lennon Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward C. Kilkenny C. Keenan Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward N. Scully C. Grimes Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward P. Mannion R. Burns Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward C. O'Callaghan S. Mulroy Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward C. Basquel C. Downey Full Forward

Dublin To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.