Galway v Mayo: Preview & Odds - Connacht Football Finals

galway-v-mayo-logo galway-v-mayo-logo
TournamentConnacht Senior Football Championship
Timetable5th May @ 16:00 GMT
PredictionMayo To Win!
Odds2.00
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Odds : 2.00
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Odds : 1.91
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This weekend will see the highly anticipated final of the 2024 Connacht Championship, with Galway and Mayo poised to do battle at the Pearse Stadium. Galway will look to leverage home advantage here to retain the title they won last year, while Mayo will go in search of their first provincial crown since 2021. However, ‘The Tribesmen’ will start this match as slight football betting underdogs against their rivals after both teams endured challenging semi-final encounters in tough conditions. But which team do I think will prevail here and carry some momentum into the All-Ireland finals?

🏆 Galway v Mayo Connacht Championship Prediction

Mayo’s semi-final win over Roscommon was achieved amid torrid conditions at Dr Hyde Park, with both sides forced to compete in torrential rain. However, ‘The Yew County’ ultimately dominated the contest without having to get out of second gear, aided by outstanding strikes by Stephen Coen and Diarmuid Murtagh.

As for Galway, they toiled during a two-point semi-final win over an unfancied Sligo side, with Robert Finnerty’s stoppage time goal ultimately proving decisive. However, Sligo dominated and led for much of the game, showcasing high intensity and focus throughout.

Mayo continues to hold a slight advantage over Galway. These sides have clashed in no fewer than five Connacht finals since 2008, and Mayo have prevailed in the last four such encounters (most recently in the 2021 showpiece).

These sides typically play out tense and tight encounters, with all but one of their clashes since 2016 resulting in a winning margin of less than three points. The only exception was the aforementioned 2021 Connacht provincial final, which saw Mayo deliver a commanding performance and triumph by six points. I’m predicting another tight last-four clash here, in which Mayo will edge by the narrowest of margins.

My Prediction: 🏆 Mayo to win!

💯 Galway v Mayo Connacht Championship Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published their Galway vs Mayo odds across a broad selection of markets. These include winning margin betting and the popular half-time/full-time market, although each of these may prove tough to call given the evenly matched nature of both competing teams. Let’s take a closer look at the latest win market odds ahead of the weekend!

Galway v Mayo: Match Winner

Mayo will start this match as the narrow favourites to defeat Galway in the Connacht final. Their average odds of 1.80 imply a 55.55% probability of a Mayo victory, while The Tribesmen can be backed to win at around 2.30. This suggests that they have a 43.47% chance of beating Mayo and claiming the Connacht Provincial title for the 10th time. You can back the draw at a price as high as 7.50, implying just a 13.33% probability of the match ending tied after normal time.

Galway to Win2.382.302.382.202.30
Mayo to Win1.801.901.801.912.00
Draw7.007.507.507.007.00

✔️ Galway v Mayo - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager your real money bankroll on this match or leverage one or more of your available free bets, there are plenty of markets that you can target ahead of the Connacht provincial final. So, here are some of my expert betting tips to help you identify the best value markets and get the most out of each stake.

  • Tip 1: Back Mayo to Win by a Margin of Between 1 and 3 Points: In the seven provincial meetings between these two teams since 2016, only once has one side prevailed by more than three points (Mayo during their provincial final win in 2021). Galway’s most recent win came in 2022 in the Connacht quarterfinal, with The Tribesmen prevailing by just a single point at MacHale Park. Last season’s All-Ireland Preliminary quarterfinal saw Mayo win by the same margin. So, there’s value in backing Mayo to win by a margin of between one and three points at the competitive price of 3.75 with BoyleSports.
  • Tip 2: Back Mayo in the Draw No Bet Market: If you also think Mayo will prevail by the narrowest of margins, you may be concerned about the prospect of the match going to extra time. This would render any straight win bets on Mayo null and void, so it may be worth backing the Yew County in the Draw No Bet market. This means that your initial stake will be refunded in instances where the match is tied at the end of normal time, and you can get on this at a price of 1.73 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Mayo with a Handicap of -1.0 Points: If you want to create value when betting on Mayo to defeat Galway this weekend, you could apply a nominal handicap to the Yew County. Remember, they did triumph by six points in the 2021 provincial final, while they’ve been in better form of late and played with superior control during the 2024 Connacht finals. We’d recommend backing Mayo to win with a handicap of -1.0 points in this market, at the enhanced price of 2.10 with BoyleSports.

Galway Update

Galway have been in mixed form of late, winning three of their previous five matches but suffering Allianz Football League defeats at Kerry and against Dublin at the Pearse Stadium on March 16th. Ultimately, The Tribesmen finished a disappointing 6th in the Allianz Division 1 table, recording just two wins and four defeats from their seven matches. Although they narrowly avoided relegation to Division 2, they recovered well to thrash London by 27 points in the Connacht quarterfinals, before edging Sligo in the last four. Ultimately, Galway remain an inconsistent team, but one with outstanding individual quality in the form of Rob Finnerty and the fit again Damian Comer.

Last 5 Games
Sligo 0-14
Galway 1-13
20.04.24
Connacht Senior Football Championship
London 0-9
Galway 5-21
06.04.24
Connacht Senior Football Championship
Kerry 0-15
Galway 1-10
24.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Galway 0-14
Dublin 0-22
16.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Monaghan 0-14
Galway 3-12
03.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1

Full forward Damian Comer has struggled for much of 2024 with a hamstring injury, but he’s now fully fit and raring to go in the Connacht provincial final. However, The Tribesmen will have to do without Peter Cooke for the remainder of their Connacht and All-Ireland campaigns due to his work commitments across the Atlantic.

PlayerReason
Peter CookeWork Commitments

Mayo Update

Mayo enjoyed a much better Allianz Division 1 campaign, finishing fourth and just two points off Dublin in second. Of course, they also defeated Galway at the Pearse Stadium in their Division 1 opener on January 28th, scoring two goals and 18 points during an impressive performance. Overall, they’ve won four of their previous five matches in all competitions, including a thumping 15-point win over New York in the Connacht last eight. Their sole defeat during this sequence came against a dominant Derry team on March 17th, and these two teams could meet again in the All-Ireland group stages depending on the result of the Connacht final.

Last 5 Games
Roscommon 0-13
Mayo 1-15
21.04.24
Connacht Senior Football Championship
New York 2-6
Mayo 2-21
07.04.24
Connacht Senior Football Championship
Monaghan 1-14
Mayo 2-13
24.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Mayo 2-13
Derry 3-15
17.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Mayo 0-15
Roscommon 0-9
02.03.24
Allianz Football League Roinn 1

👕Galway vs Mayo - Potential Lineups

Pos. Dublin
6-2-6
Offaly
6-2-6
Pos.
Goalkeeper C. Gleeson C. Reape Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back J. McGrath J. Coyne Right Corner-Back
Half-Back S. Fitzgerald R. Brickenden Half-Back
Left Corner-Back J. Glynn S. Callinan Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back D. McHugh P. Durcan Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back J. Daly D. McBrien Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back L. Silke E. Hession Left Half-Back
Midfielder P. Conroy S. Coen Midfielder
Midfielder S. Kelly M. Ruane Midfielder
Right Half-Forward J. Heaney B. Tuohy Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward S. Walsh F. Boland Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward C. Darcy J. Carney Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward P. Finnerty A. O’Shea Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward D. Comer T. Conroy Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward L. Ó Conghaile R. O’Donoghue Left Corner-Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.