Mayo vs Cavan: Preview & Odds - All-Ireland Senior Football Championship

mayo-v-cavan-logo mayo-v-cavan-logo
TournamentAll-Ireland Senior Football Championship
TimetableSaturday 18th May at 17:00 GMT
PredictionMayo to Win!
OddsMayo to Win @ 1.23
Mayo to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 1.23
Bet €100 and win €123 if Mayo win.

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Odds : 1.20
Bet €100 and win €120 if Mayo win.

18+ | New customers only. Min stake €/£10 | 30 days to qualify | Payment method restrictions exist | Play Responsibly | Terms and Conditions apply.

Odds : 1.20
Bet €100 and win €120 if Mayo win.

Mayo and Cavan have been drawn into Group 2 of the All-Ireland Championship round robin stage in 2024, with both sides appearing to be battling for second place behind defending champions Dublin. It was the Dubs who ended Mayo’s title tilt in last year’s quarterfinal, while Cavan only qualified for the finals this time around by virtue of their National League position (they lost to Tyrone in the last eight of the Ulster Championship). ‘The Lake County’ are certainly the underdogs ahead of their trip to McHale Park this weekend, but what odds are Ireland’s best betting sites offering on a shock away win here?

🏆 Mayo vs Cavan All-Ireland Championship Prediction

Although Mayo were ultimately defeated by rivals Galway in the recent Connacht SFC final, they dominated large periods of the contest and looked set to snap the Tribesmen’s provincial dominance as the match entered stoppage time. However, Damien Comer kickstarted one final rescue mission with Galway trailing by two points, before keeper Conor Gleeson nailed a stunning 50-metre free to end Mayo’s tilt at a 48th Connacht title.

Otherwise, Mayo performed well in provincial competition, thumping New York by 15 points in the last eight and defeating Roscommon in the semi-final thanks to combined figures of 1-8 by Ryan O’Donoghue and Aidan O’Shea. ‘The Green above the Red’ also placed a respectable fourth in Allianz Division 1 in the National League, defeating Dublin impressively at MacHale Park on matchday two along the way.

Although Cavan’s last eight defeat in the Ulster Championship followed a third place finish in Allianz Division 2, they were a distant five points behind Armagh in second. They also lost three of their seven matches, although it should be noted that all of their three victories came on the road and away from Breffni Park.

So, Cavan certainly cannot be discounted this weekend, but they haven’t beaten Mayo since a National League clash at Castlebar in March 2017. Mayo also boast superior firepower in the form of Ryan O’Donoghue, Cillian O'Connor and Aidan O’Shea, with the former contributing 0-25 during the National League campaign. Overall, I’m predicting a relatively comfortable win for Mayo in front of their own fans.

My Prediction: 🏆Mayo to win!

💯 Mayo vs Cavan All-Ireland Championship Odds

The win market makes Mayo the overwhelming favourites to defeat Cavan at McHale Park, so there’s arguably little value in backing them to prevail outright. The good news is that there’s a diverse range of alternative football betting markets available here, including handicap wagering and the over/under on how many points will be scored during the game. You can also bet on the eventual winning margin, which may prove popular given Mayo’s obvious superiority.

Mayo vs Cavan: Match Winner

You can actually back Mayo to beat Cavan outright at odds of just 1.20. This implies an 83.33% probability of a home win at McHale Park, where Mayo have only lost once competitively in 2024 (against Derry). Conversely, you can bet on Cavan to win at odds as high as 5.50, suggesting that the Lake County have just an 18.18% chance of triumphing on the road. The draw is the least statistically likely outcome and can be backed at around 12.00, implying an 8.33% probability of the match being tied after 70 minutes.

Match Winner
Mayo to Win 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.23
Cavan to Win 5.00 5.50 5.00 5.25 5.33
Draw 12.00 12.00 11.00 12.00 12.00

✔️ Mayo vs Cavan - Betting Tips

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Unless you’re able to back Mayo to win outright with a sizable stake, you may be best served by exploring some of the alternative betting markets referenced above. But which of these offers the most value? Here are some betting tips to help you make the most of your real money bankroll and available free bets.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 33.5 Points Being Scored in the Game: Mayo scored 115 points in their seven National League matches this season, at an average of 16.42 per game. However, the scored at the higher rate of 20.00 points per game during the 2024 Connacht SFC, as the quality of opponents declined slightly in the quarterfinal and last four. Although Cavan aren’t usually the most porous defensively, they shipped 27 points against Armagh in Division 2 and a further 26 against Tyrone in the Ulster quarterfinal. Mayo certainly boast the attacking quality to hurt Cavan, so get on over 33.5 points being scored in the game at a price of 1.85 with LeoVegas Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Ryan O'Donoghue as an Anytime Goalscorer: In addition to his haul of 25 points during Mayo’s Allianz Division 1 campaign, the prolific Ryan O'Donoghue struck 1-13 in the provincial quarterfinal win over New York. This made him the highest ever Mayo scorer in a single Championship match, while he added 0-7 with three frees for good measure in the last four victory over Roscommon. Make no mistake; he remains a talismanic presence for the Green above the Red, and you can back him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.10 with BoyleSports.
  • Tip 3: Back Mayo to Win with a Handicap of -5 Points: Mayo’s competitive wins in 2024 have largely been achieved by narrow margins. In fact, their four National League victories produced a combined winning margin of 17 points, at an average of just 4.25 per game. They defeated Roscommon by five points in the Connacht semi-final too, with their 15-point last eight win over New York something of an outlier. Only one of Cavan’s four competitive defeats in 2024 saw them lose by more than four points too, so get on Mayo to win with a nominal handicap of -5 points at the enhanced price of 2.00 with BoyleSports.

1️⃣ Mayo Update

Mayo have only lost one of their previous four competitive matches, since Derry recorded a five point victory in the National League clash at McHale Park on March 17th. Of course, this defeat saw them lose by a single point to Galway in the Connacht SFC final, but they led for the majority of the 70 minutes and took a three point advantage into the final quarter. Ultimately, they were only undone by a supreme strike from distance by Conor Gleeson in the sixth minute of stoppage time, ending their chances of a first provincial title since 2021. Still, they’re in relatively good form ahead of the All-Ireland SFC and are always tough to beat.

Last 5 Games
Galway 0-16 Mayo 0-15 05.05.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
Roscommon 0-13 Mayo 1-15 21.04.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
New York 2-6 Mayo 2-21 07.04.24 Connacht Senior Football Championship
Monaghan 1-14 Mayo 2-13 24.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 1
Mayo 2-13 Derry 3-15 17.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 1

Diarmuid O'Connor is fit again for Mayo after recovering from a niggling hamstring injury. He appeared as a sub in the Connacht final against Galway, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be in the starting 15 against Cavan. Otherwise, Mayo should be at full strength as they look to kickstart their bid for a first All-Ireland title since 1951.

2️⃣ Cavan Update

Cavan’s Ulster campaign ended in the last eight, after an impressive six-point win over Monaghan in Clones in the preliminary quarterfinal. Tyrone eventually beat them by a single point, after a see-saw encounter that entered extra-time after the hosts had squandered a 1-16 to 1-8 lead midway through the second half. The Lake County showcased tremendous resilience to recover this deficit, but the early part of the match saw their defensive limitations exposed by Brian Dooher’s men. Overall, Cavan have won just one of their previous five competitive matches in 2024, since a one point victory at Louth on February 25th.

Last 5 Games
Cavan 3-16 Tyrone 1-23 21.04.24 Ulster Senior Football Championship
Monaghan 1-12 Cavan 3-12 07.04.24 Ulster Senior Football Championship
Cavan 1-13 Fermanagh 2-14 23.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Armagh 2-21 Cavan 0-12 16.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 2
Cavan 0-11 Meath 0-11 02.03.24 Allianz Football League Roinn 2

Cavan will be without star forward Paddy Lynch for the remainder of the campaign, after the in-form 24-year-old suffered a torn cruciate ligament in training just four days after the extra-time defeat against Tyrone. Cormac O Reilly may replace Lynch in the starting 15, having come off the bench to excellent effect in the win over Monaghan.

Player Reason
Paddy Lynch Knee Injury

👕 Mayo vs Cavan - Potential Lineups

Pos. Mayo6-2-6 Cavan6-2-6 Pos.
Goalkeeper C. Reape G. O'Rourke Goalkeeper
Right Corner-Back J. Coyne C. Reilly Right Corner-Back
Half-Back R. Brickenden K. Brady Half-Back
Left Corner-Back S. Callinan B. O'Connell Left Corner-Back
Right Half-Back P. Durcan P. Faulkner Right Half-Back
Centre Half-Back D. McBrien N. Carolan Centre Half-Back
Left Half-Back D. McHugh C. Brady Left Half-Back
Midfielder S. Coen J. Smith Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ruane O. Kiernan Midfielder
Right Half-Forward J. Flynn Ciarán Brady Right Half-Forward
Centre Half-Forward F. Boland G. Smith Centre Half-Forward
Left Half-Forward J. Carney Oisín Kiernan Left Half-Forward
Right Corner-Forward A. O'Shea O. Brady Right Corner-Forward
Full Forward T. Conroy Cormac O'Reilly Full Forward
Left Corner-Forward R. O'Donoghue Caoimhin O'Reilly Full Forward

Mayo to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football and GAA writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and the GAA provincial championships, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.