Outright Winner Prediction & Betting Odds - 2022 FIFA Football World Cup: Who Will Win?

Outright Winner Prediction and Betting Odds
TournamentFIFA World Cup 2022
TimetableSunday 18th of December at 15.00 GMT
PredictionArgentina to Win
OddsArgentina to Win @ 6.48
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The 22nd iteration of the FIFA World Cup kicks off on November 20th in Qatar, when the host nation take on Ecuador at 4pm GMT at the Al Bayt Stadium. After a further 63 matches, the tournament winner will be decided, with this side able to take its place alongside some of history’s greatest ever teams.

This will be a truly unique instalment of football’s biggest international tournament, as it’s the first to be held in the Middle East and the only iteration in history not to take place during the summer months.

The usual suspects are expected to compete for the Jules Rimet trophy in Qatar, with Brazil the favourites to lift a record-extending sixth title. But who do we think will ultimately prevail? Let’s get into out World Cup betting guide!

💯World Cup Winner Betting Odds

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If you’re going to wager on the outright winner of the FIFA 2022 World Cup, it’s important to appraise the very latest odds. These can vary wildly from one bookmaker to another, while they also tend to shorten considerably as the tournament approaches or gets underway.

Certainly, we’d recommending placing an ante-post outright winner bet as early as possible online, so here’s a glimpse at the latest football betting odds and bookmaker’s favourites:

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william hill world cup winner odds
Brazil4.324.204.004.004.304.334.33
Argentina6.486.756.005.006.506.006.00
France8.509.508.009.008.508.508.50
England9.0111.008.009.009.009.008.00
Spain9.0311.009.0010.009.009.0010.00
Germany11.9612.0011.0011.0012.0012.0011.00
Netherlands13.0214.0013.0013.0013.0013.0013.00
Portugal14.9815.0015.0015.0015.0015.0015.00
Belgium18.9521.0017.0021.00TBA17.0017.00
Denmark28.9329.0029.0029.0029.0026.0029.00

As we can see, Brazil, Argentina and France remain the clear bookmakers’ favourites at present, with Spain, England and Germany also offering value at slightly longer odds.

Outside of these sides, Portugal and a multitalented Belgian team can be backed at around 15.00 and higher to win their maiden World Cup titles. These may be tempting as outside wagers, so long as you commit a minimal stake amount and wager responsibly based on the relevant risk-reward ratio.

Conversely, you may want to consider increasing your stake incrementally when backing one of the three favourite nations, as this reflects the slightly shorter odds in play and the higher probability of either outcome occurring.

🏠 Tournament Preview

As we’ve said, Qatar will host the 22nd World Cup, while it’s the first Middle Eastern state to achieve this honour since the inception of the tournament way back in 1930.

As usual, most of the world’s big hitters will line up in Qatar, including tournament favourites Brazil, Argentina (who are in the midst of a 35-game unbeaten run dating back to July 2019), Spain, England and four-time winners Germany. Notable absentees include Italy, who were stunned in Playoff Path C by North Macedonia, Colombia and 25th-ranked Sweden.

Despite being held in the winter, most games will take place in stifling heat and humidity, potentially affording an advantage to Southern hemisphere sides like Brazil or Argentina. This may also help African nations to enjoy sustained success in Qatar, with an impressive Senegal side particularly well-placed to go deep into the tournament. Remember, no CAF side has ever reached the semi-finals of the World Cup, although Cameroon, Ghana and Senegal themselves have all come close since 1990.

The tournament is also expected to be the last that will feature the iconic duo of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, but the question that remains is can one of these legendary performers crown their glittering career with the ultimate prize in football?

🏆 World Cup History

The first World Cup was contested in 1930, when host nation Uruguay defeated Argentina 4-2 to lift the inaugural Jules Rimet Trophy. Interestingly, they also won the next tournament that they entered in 1950, when they defeated hosts and bitter rivals Brazil in front of 170,000 heartbroken fans at the Maracanã Stadium.

Italy claimed the intervening titles in 1934 and 1938, while the Azzurri have since gone on to claim two more triumphs in 1982 and 2006. Germany have also lifted the Jules Rimet trophy four times, while Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and France are the only other nations to win the title on more than one occasion (France are the defending champions having prevailed in 2018).

As we’ve already touched on, Brazil is the tournament’s most successful nation with five Jules Rimet trophies to their name, while A Seleção are the only country to have qualfied for every one of the 22 World Cup iterations to date!

It’s interesting to note that only eight sides have won the WC since its inception, with England and Spain (with one title apiece) added to the above list. This shows just how difficult it is to win the FIFA World Cup, and regardless of how many surprise results are recorded during a tournament, the very best nations always seem to come out on top.

✔️ Qualification and Road to the World Cup 2022

Qatar qualified automatically for the 2022 World Cup as hosts, although they still participated in the second round of AFC qualifying as this doubled up as qualification for the 2023 AFC Asian Cup.

Overall, 32 sides have qualified from Qatar from six geographical regions, with Europe contributing 13 of these teams. Here’s a snapshot of each confederation and their representation at the 2022 World Cup:

ConfederationAvailable SlotsTeams QualifiedQualification StartQualification End
AFC4+1 or 5+15+1June 2019June 2022
CAF55September 2019March 2022
CONCACAF3 or 44March 2021June 2022
CONMEBOL4 or 54October 2020June 2022
OFC0 or 10March 2022June 2022
UEFA1313March 2021June 2022

As we can see, some regions have a variable number of qualifiers, as some World Cup places are decided by playoffs that pit one confederation representative against another. This is why there’s no representation from the Oceanic region here, as New Zealand (who comfortably progressed from OFC qualifying) were beaten 1-0 in the Inter-confederation play-off by the fourth-place CONCACAF side Costa Rica.

So, exactly which teams have made their way successfully to Qatar? Here’s confirmation of all 32 qualifiers and which confederation they represent:

ConfederationQualified Teams
AFCQatar (hosts), Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Australia
CAFGhana, Senegal, Tunisia, Morocco, Cameroon
CONCACAF Canada, United States, Mexico, Costa Rica
CONMEBOLBrazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Ecuador
OFCN/A
UEFAGermany, Denmark, France, Belgium, Serbia, Spain, Croatia, Switzerland, England, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Wales

⭐ World Cup Players to Watch

With most of the world’s best sides having qualified for Qatar, there’s a myriad of superstars who will be looking to light up the international stage. But which of these should you keep your eyes on this winter? Let’s get into it by looking at five of the most likely tournament stars!

  • Cristiano Ronaldo: Now 37 and no longer the player he once was, ‘CR7’ remains the focus of the world’s media and a record-breaking player with an insatiable appetite for goals. Having appeared to have burned his club bridges at Manchester United after a recent, explosive interview and failed to score in eight of his last nine international matches, he’s arrived in Qatar under something of a cloud, but this is still a man who has scored more than 800 goals for club and country and 117 goals in 189 matches for Portugal specifically. So, he’ll once again be a player to watch at what will be his fifth World Cup.

  • Lionel Messi: While the diminutive Argentine has also endured a challenging couple of years, he’s currently starring for PSG both at home and abroad and has played a critical role in La Albiceleste’s superb 35-game unbeaten run. His overall has also seen him plunder an incredible number of goals, including 706 in 863 club appearances and 90 in 164 international caps. Messi also continues to lay on countless goals and create chances for others, and it will be fitting if the forward is able to lift the Jules Rimet trophy for the first time in Qatar.

  • Kylian Mbappe: Arguably the heir apparent to Messi and Ronaldo as the best player in the world, Mbappe is a rapid and clinical forward who remains unstoppable on his day. To this end, the brilliant 23-year-old has scored 190 goals in 237 matches for PSG, while he already has 221 goals to his name at club level. For his country, he’s amassed 28 goals in 59 caps at an impressive rate, including five through the course of WC qualifying. Mbappe also starred during the 2018 World Cup, of course, scoring four times in France’s successful campaign.

  • Neymar: Now 30-years-old, Neymar is another mercurial talent who divides opinion, with many believing that he should have already won a Balon d’Or given his immense ability. However, his career record of 357 goals in 573 club appearances stands comparison with anyone, while he remains Brazil’s talisman with 75 international goals in 121 matches. He’ll be central to Brazil’s chances of success in Qatar, while there’s no doubt that he’s a genuine joy to watch when he's at his best (not withstanding his undeniable penchant for diving).

  • Phil Foden: While 22-year-old Phil Foden may have yet to prove himself on the international stage after a disappointing Euro 2020 campaign (from an individual perspective at least), he’s a highly talented and creative players who tends to thrive in big games. He’s also blessed with outstanding dribbling skills and a keen eye for goal. To this end, he has 53 goals in 189 club appearances for Manchester City, while he’ll be looking to start regularly in Qatar and add to his international haul of two goals in 18 games. Much conjecture remains about Foden’s best position, but he’s another who can light up a game at any moment with a cute pass or exceptional finish.

📰 Latest FIFA World Cup News

🥇 Who Will Win? Our World Cup Prediction

Ultimately, any of the sides referenced above have a reasonable (albeit variable) chance of winning the World Cup, although history tells only eight sides have won the tournament since its inception. Of these, only Spain and England have failed to lift the Jules Rimet trophy more than once, so it’s highly probable that one of the best five or six teams will prevail in Qatar.

Of course, hosts Qatar have minimal chance of winning the tournament, whether you consider their limited playing squad or the fact that the host nation has only lifted the World Cup six times in 21 attempts. The last nation to achieve this was France in 1998, with Brazil’s staggering 7-1 semi-final defeat to Germany in Belo Horizonte in 2014 among the starkest host failures in the last 24 years.

But of the bookies’ frontrunners, which are we backing to win? Well, for all of France’s squad depth and experience, their form has been patchy of late (especially during their recent UEFA Nations League A matches), while Luis Enrique’s talented Spain side arguably lack a clinical and prolific goalscorer in attack.

What’s more, the conditions should favour a Southern hemisphere side, with nations like Brazil and Argentina acclimatised to sustained heat and playing in high humidity levels. If both of these sides top their group and progress through the early knockout phase, the draw will also pit them against one another at the Lusail Stadium in the semi-finals, creating a mouth-watering tie in which the winner will be hotly tipped to lift the title.

Ultimately, we’re backing Argentina to prevail and win their first World Cup since 1986, particularly with the nation unbeaten in 35 matches (and more than three years) and led by the inspirational Lionel Messi. Remember, it was Messi who inspired Argentina to their iconic 2020 Copa America win, and few would bet against him doing the same again on an even bigger stage!

Our tournament prediction: Argentina to win.

🔍 Our World Cup Betting Tips?

At this stage, we thought we’d offer some World Cup betting tips, both in terms of the most viable markets and successful bankroll management. So, let’s get into it!

1. Never Wager More Than You Can Afford to Lose

Successful bankroll management requires patience and discipline, while it should also be centred on the principle that you never wager more than you can afford to lose within a specified period of time.

So, whether you create a bankroll for each individual day of the tournament or across the duration of the entire competition, it’s crucial that this amount is fixed and set in line with your financial circumstances, earnings and outgoings.

You can also use sportsbooks to help you in this regard, as they’re now compelled to offer deposit limits based on your desired activity levels. So, you can set caps each day, week or month as you desire, creating an extra layer of protection and effective management.

Finally, it’s important to set your stake according to the odds in play and the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring. For example, you should consider minimising your stake when backing outsiders with a lengthy price and a smaller chance of winning, while increasing this responsibility when betting on short-price favourites.

2. Look Beyond Outright Betting

While outright betting according to early ante-post odds can be fun and rewarding, the World Cup is also home to a number of diverse and potentially lucrative betting markets.

For example, individual match betting can be very rewarding, particularly during the formative stages of the tournament where there are some considerable mismatches.

This allows you to profit from over/under betting (in relation to the total number of goals scored), while you can also leverage handicap betting to achieve superior value when backing odds-on favourites against relative minnows.

Individual betting markets are also viable during the World Cup, with the identity of the Golden Boot winner particularly popular.

In this case, we’d wager backing prolific players who represent the world’s best and most fancied nations, as such stars are likely to play the optimal number of games while potentially facing lower-ranked opposition during the group stages.

3. Consider Accumulators

During the group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, most days will see a total of four matches played across two or three groups.

This may create an opportunity for four-fold daily accumulators this winter, as you look to select clear favourites where possible and benefit from the multiplier effect on odds and your potential returns.

You can also place larger accumulators with more selections throughout the tournament, and once again, this endeavour is most effective during the group stage.

Not only are there more games to include during this stage of the tournament, but you’ll also find it easier to predict the outcome of matches due to the seeded nature of the draw.

🎁 Find World Cup Free Bets

At this stage, we thought we’d share some of the best and most rewarding WC free bet offers on the market.

Some of these unlock up to €100 of free bets, which can be deployed throughout the tournament (on outcomes with the specific minimum odds or above) and on the side that you think will be the ultimate winner.

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Argentina to Win

✒️ Lewis Humphries - Sports Journalist and Betting Expert

lewis humphries

This Outright Winner prediction was written by Lewis Humphries. Lewis is a business and iGaming copywriter from the UK, who has a passion for sports betting and remote casino betting. He's reviewed some of the world's leading casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands.

His content has also featured on a number of different sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

Want to read more World Cup predictions? Check out the links below: