Switzerland vs Italy Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

Switzerland-v-Italy-prediction Switzerland-v-Italy-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 29th June 2024
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds@3.05
Bookmaker20BET Sports
Back the Draw!
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Switzerland v Italy logo Switzerland v Italy logo

The 2024 UEFA European Championship round of 16 stage commences on June 29th, when Switzerland take on Italy at the Olympiastadion. Both teams finished as runners up in their respective groups, although the Swiss were only denied top spot thanks to a last-gasp goal by Germany’s Niclas Füllkrug in Frankfurt. Conversely, the Azzurri required a 98th-minute equaliser of their own against Croatia, which saw them progress and sent their opponents home as one of the worst performing third place teams. Make no mistake: Switzerland and Italy are incredibly evenly matched, but which of these sides will prevail in Berlin and be the first to reach the quarterfinals?

🏆 Switzerland vs Italy Prediction

Italy are one of several European powerhouses to have struggled so far at Euro 2024. They’ve been particularly underwhelming in the attacking third, having accumulated a total xG of just 2.96 during their three matches and struck a paltry nine attempts on target (only five countries have managed fewer during the tournament).

Switzerland’s cumulative xG during the group stages was 4.05, although they also struggled to create high quality chances against Scotland and host nation Germany. Although they managed five more shots on targets than the Azzurri (14) and scored two more goals, they initiated fewer attacks (117 compared to 129) and played almost exclusively in transition against the Germans.

However, Italy have averaged 52.7% possession per 90 minutes at Euro 2024, compared to 48% for the Swiss. Luciano Spalletti’s side have recovered slightly more balls too, which is impressive given that they were drawn against Spain and Croatia in Group B. They certainly proved defensively resilient and well organised against high quality opposition, while Germany found it incredibly hard to break down Switzerland in Frankfurt too.

We could well see a war of attrition at the Olympiastadion, given how evenly matched both teams are and the fact that neither has excelled offensively so far. There’s a great deal at stake in the first knockout game of the tournament too, so I’m tipping the match to end in a low-scoring draw after 90 minutes and Italy to progress after extra-time.

My Prediction: 🏆Switzerland 1 – 1 Italy (Italy to win 2-1 after extra-time)⚽

💯 Switzerland vs Italy Betting Odds

When you compare the available lines and markets at Ireland’s best betting sites, you should note that this apply to normal time only unless otherwise stated. This includes the win market, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest prices.

🏅 Switzerland vs Italy: Match Winner

Italy are the pre-game favourites to prevail during the 90 minutes, with their odds of 2.50 implying a 40% probability of a win for the Azzurri. As for Switzerland, they can be backed to triumph at around 3.25, suggesting that they have a 30.76% chance of beating Italy for the first time in 12 attempts and since 1993. The draw during normal time is priced competitively at 3.00, implying a 33.33% probability of the match ending in a tie and progressing to extra-time.

Team
Switzerland to Win3.103.253.253.253.30
Italy to Win2.602.452.502.452.46
Draw to Win2.903.002.903.003.05

⚽ Switzerland vs Italy: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in six of Switzerland’s previous 10 matches (60%). Murat Yakin’s charges have drawn two blanks and kept three clean sheets, but have conceded in each of their last four games. Conversely, both sides have found the net in five of Italy’s last 10 matches (50%), with the Azzurri keeping four clean sheets and drawing three blanks. This sequence included 0-0 draws against Ukraine and Turkey.

Yes/No
Yes1.912.051.972.052.12
No1.801.741.711.741.73

🥅 Switzerland vs Italy: Over/Under Goals odds

The last 10 matches contested by the Swiss have also yielded 20 goals in total at a rate of 2.0 per game. They’ve scored just 13 of these goals during this sequence at an average of 1.3 per 90 minutes, while never conceding more than once in a single fixture. Italy’s previous 10 encounters have produced 23 goals the slightly higher rate of 2.3 per 90, scoring 14 times at an average of 1.4 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals2.502.502.572.502.60
Under 2.5 Goals1.501.531.471.531.53

✔️ Switzerland vs Italy Betting Tips

This is an incredibly tough match to call, despite the fact that Switzerland have only beaten the Italians seven times in 60 attempts since 1911. So, I’ve prepared some expert wagering tips to help you make the most of your real money bankroll and any free bets that you have on your account!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: Despite the fact that Switzerland haven’t beaten Italy in 11 attempts since a 1-0 victory in May 1993, six of these matches have ended in draws. This includes five of the previous six fixtures since April 2003. At the same time, there has been little between these two sides at Euro 2024, while I expect chances to be at a premium in Berlin. The odds also imply a 33.33% probability of the match being tied after 90 minutes, which is significantly higher than the sport’s average. So, there’s value in backing the draw here at the competitive price of 3.05 with 20BET Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Breel Embolo as an Anytime Goalscorer: Explosive forward Breel Embolo made an emotional return from injury ahead of Euro 2024, before scoring superbly in the 3-1 win over Hungary. He now has four goals at major tournaments for the Swiss, while he has also completed four runs into the penalty during the group stage matches. He has also attained a top speed of 33km/h, and he’ll pose a direct threat in behind Italy’s defensive line at the Olympiastadion. You can get on Embolo as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 3.80 with RoyalistPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back There Being Under 22.5 Shots: As I’ve touched on, Italy have struck 33 shots at Euro 2024, at an average of 11 per game. However, 17 of these came during their opening group stage match against lowly Albania. The Swiss have recorded 30 attempts on goal at an average of 10 per 90 minutes, but only 15 in their last two matches against Scotland and Germany. I don’t expect either team to overcommit in attack given the magnitude of the match and what’s at stake, so consider backing under 22.5 shots being struck during the 90 minutes at a price of 1.77 with RoyalistPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Switzerland Update

Although the Swiss were held to successive 1-1 draws against Scotland and Germany in Group A, they’ve now lost just one of their previous 17 matches and are unbeaten in seven since a 1-0 loss in Romania on November 21st, 2023. Murat Yakin’s side were also largely impressive in their 1-1 draw with hosts Germany at the Waldstadion, restricting their illustrious opponents to an xG of just 1.56 and three big chances during the 90 minutes. 69-cap midfielder Remo Freuler played a key role here as he has throughout the tournament, registering two assists and playing seven passes into the attacking third while recovering a total of 10 balls.

Last 5 Games
Switzerland 1
Germany 1
23.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A
Scotland 1
Switzerland 1
19.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A
Hungary 1
Switzerland 3
15.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group A
Switzerland 1
Austria 1
08.06.24
International Friendly
Switzerland 4
Estonia 0
04.06.24
International Friendly

Silvan Widmer picked up his second booking of the tournament against Germany and will sit out the round of 16 clash in Berlin. Yakin must therefore decide whether to drop Dan Ndoye (who scored Switzerland’s goal against Germany) into the right wing back role or introduce Borussia Mönchengladbach defender Nico Elvedi as a more conservative choice. Breel Embolo is expected to continue in attack against the Italians.

Player Reason
Silvan Widmer Suspended

2️⃣ Italy Update

Italy have continued their reputation as slow starters at international tournaments, as they were braced for a third place finish until Lazio winger Mattia Zaccagni curled home a stunning 98th-minute equaliser against Croatia. They were also disappointing and passive against Spain, where they created no big chances at all and accumulated an xG of just 0.16. However, they’ve lost just one of their last nine matches overall, and they remain defensively solid and enduringly difficult to beat. As expected, Inter centre back Alessandro Bastoni has been a key player for the Azzurri at Euro 2024, completing 11 of his 12 clearances so far and recovering an impressive 23 balls in total.

Last 5 Games
Croatia 1
Italy 1
24.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Spain 1
Italy 0
20.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Italy 2
Albania 1
15.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group B
Italy 1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
09.06.24
International Friendly
Italy 0
Turkey 0
04.06.24
International Friendly

Italy’s stylish centre-back Riccardo Calafiori will miss out at the Olympiastadion, having also collected his second booking of the tournament in the final group match against Croatia. His ability to read the play and demonstrate composure on the ball will sorely missed in Berlin, although Alessandro Buongiorno, Federico Gatti and Gianluca Mancini are all more than capable replacements. Zaccagni may also start after his goalscoring cameo in Leipzig, while Federico Chiesa and Davide Frattesi are in line to return to the first 11.

Player Reason
Riccardo Calafiori Suspended

👕 Switzerland vs Italy Potential Lineups

Pos. Switzerland
3-4-2-1
Italy
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper Y. Sommer G. Donnarumma Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back M. Akanji G. Di Lorenzo Right Back
Centre Back F. Schär A. Bastoni Centre Back
Left Centre Back R. Rodriguez A. Buongiorno Centre Back
Right Wing Back N. Elvedi F. Dimarco Left Back
Central Midfielder F. Freuler N. Barella Midfielder
Central Midfielder G. Xhaka Jorginho Midfielder
Left Wing Back M. Aebischer D. Frattesi Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder F. Rieder F. Chiesa Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder D. Ndoye G. Raspadori Striker
Striker B. Embolo L. Pellegrini Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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