Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

tottenham-v-aston-villa-logotottenham-v-aston-villa-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 26th Nov 23
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.90
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Odds : 3.90
Bet €100 and win €390 if the game ends in a draw.
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T&C
Bet
Odds : 3.90
Bet €100 and win €390 if the game ends in a draw.
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T&C
Bet
Odds : 3.75
Bet €100 and win €375 if the game ends in a draw.
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T&C
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tottenham-v-aston-villa-logotottenham-v-aston-villa-logo

The international break came at a good time for Spurs, with Ange Postecoglou’s men having previously lost consecutive matches against Chelsea and Wolves and slipped from top spot to fourth in the Premier League table. They’re now just a single point ahead of Unai Emery’s high flying Aston Villa, who have won seven of their last 10 league games and taken 22 points from the last 30 available to them. Make no mistake; this should be an open and hugely entertaining game, but can Spurs can back to winning ways at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium? Check out my own prediction and the latest odds from the best betting sites below!

🏆 Tottenham vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Spurs and Aston Villa both boast rich and incredible histories, so it’s no surprise that the two teams have contested 172 matches since March 1903. Spurs have won 77 of these matches and lost 59 to their opponents from the West Midlands, although Villa have only prevailed four times in the last 25 fixtures since September 2008.

However, the Villains have won three of their previous five Premier League games, including a superb 2-0 victory on New Years’ Day at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They’ve outperformed Spurs in several key attacking metrics this season too, including total goals scored (26 vs 21), xG values (23.5 and 19.2) and goals per shot (0.13 vs 0.11).

The challenge for Villa is their form on the road, as while they’ve won a staggering 13 consecutive Premier League home games since a 4-2 defeat to Arsenal on February 18th, they’ve lost three of their six matches away from Villa Park in 2023/24 and even have a negative goal difference (-6) across these contests. These games have seen them ship five goals at Newcastle and three at Liverpool, so there’s an obvious fragility here that Spurs will look to exploit.

However, Villa’s pacy attack and ability in transition will pose a huge threat to Spurs’ high defensive line, while injuries to centre back Micky van de Ven and creative playmaker James Maddison will impact the ‘Lilywhites’ at both ends of the pitch. So, I think there’s value in backing a rare and high scoring draw between these two sides at the weekend.

My Prediction: 🏆 Tottenham 2 – 2 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 Tottenham vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

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Regardless of which sportsbook you choose to wager with from Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll be able to access a huge range of Tottenham vs Aston Villa betting markets. Some of these are more popular than others, so here’s my analysis of the best markets and how they’re currently being priced.

🏅 Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

This match is arguably tailormade for matched betting, as it features two evenly matched teams and is incredibly difficult to call. However, Spurs are the early betting favourites here, with an average price of 2.30 implying a 43.47% probability of them defeating the Villains.

Team
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Tottenham to Win2.252.302.232.302.38
Aston Villa to Win2.752.752.702.802.80
Draw3.753.753.703.903.90

⚽ Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in nine of Spurs’ 13 matches in all competitions this season, with the North London side keeping four clean sheets and hitting the back of the net in every single game. Both sides have registered in 12 of Villa’s 19 games in 2023/24, with Emery’s men keeping five clean sheets and drawing two blanks (at Liverpool and Nottingham Forest).

Yes/No
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Yes1.401.451.401.441.40
No2.702.702.662.752.75

🥅 Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Spurs and Villa have contested 32 matches this season, with these fixtures yielding a whopping 112 goals at a rate of 3.50 per game. These two sides have also scored at respective rates of 1.92 and 2.47 goals per game so far in 2023/24, so it’s little wonder that the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals scored in the contest.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.441.501.461.451.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.502.502.482.602.50

✔️ Tottenham vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

While the bookies are hedging their bets slightly when it comes to the win market, they clearly expect over 2.5 goals to be scored in the game between Tottenham and Aston Villa. Regardless, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you make the most of the available markets!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw Outright: Although there hasn’t been a drawn game between Spurs and Villa since May 2012 (18 meetings), these two sides have arguably never been more evenly matched than they are now. Despite Villa’s patchy form on the road, they boast tremendous pace in attack and will surely relish Tottenham’s high defensive line under Ange Postecoglou. Spurs may also be boosted by the return of Destiny Udogie in defence, so I think there’s value in backing the draw here at a price of 3.90 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: When it comes to over/under wagering, the 2.5 goals betting line remains the single most popular among punters and bookmakers alike. However, the matches featuring these sides have produced a whopping 3.50 goals per game in 2023/24 so far, with Villa alone scoring at a rate of 2.47 per 90. So, there’s value in backing over 3.5 goals being scored at an enhanced price of 2.25 with Betway, while this wager is particularly appealing if you’d like to qualify for or utilise available free bets on your account.
  • Tip 3: Back the Draw and Both Sides to Score: Combination betting can also unlock potentially greater rewards, especially when you create wagers that feature two or three different match outcomes. For example, betting on the draw and both sides to score at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium unlocks an enhanced price of price of 4.33 with Betway, while this wager takes into account my own match prediction and the attacking potency of both teams (Spurs have managed to score in every single game this season so far).

1️⃣ Tottenham Update

While Spurs have performed better than expected under Postecoglou and have won eight of their 12 Premier League games in 2023/24, they’ve recently experienced consecutive EPL defeats under the Australian for the first time. While their chaotic 4-1 loss at home to Chelsea can be partially accounted for by the dismissals of Cristian Romero and the aforementioned Udogie, Spurs were passive and toothless against Wolves and only managed two shots on target during the whole game. Postecoglou’s relentlessly high defensive line was also exposed in the game against Chelsea, and Villa’s rapid forward line will look to take advantage of this too.

Last 5 Games
Wolves 2
Tottenham 1
11.11.23
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 4
06.11.23
Premier League
Crystal Palace 1
Tottenham 2
27.10.23
Premier League
Tottenham 2
Fulham 0
23.10.23
Premier League
Luton 0
Tottenham 1
07.10.23
Premier League

The defeat at home to Chelsea was costly in more ways than one, as it saw influential centre back Micky van de Ven (hamstring injury) and creative fulcrum James Maddison (ankle) ruled out until December. Cristian Romero will also serve the second of a three-game ban due to his dismissal in this match, and while Destiny Udogie will return from suspension, he’s now a doubt with a muscle injury incurred on international duty. Brazilian striker Richarlison continues his recovery from groin surgery, while Ryan Sessegnon (surgery), Alfie Whiteman (ankle) and Ivan Perisic (cruciate ligament tear) are long-term absentees. Winger Manor Solomon misses out with a meniscus injury.

PlayerReason
Micky van de Ven Hamstring Injury
James Maddison Ankle Injury
Cristian Romero Suspended
Destiny Udogie Muscle Injury
Richarlison Groin Surgery
Ryan Sessegnon Surgery
Alfie Whiteman Ankle Injury
Ivan Perisic Cruciate Ligament Tear
Manor Solomon Meniscus Injury

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s winning streak of 13 matches at home has helped set the tone for this season, as they’ve also won 13 times in 19 games across all competitions. This equates to a win rate of 68.42%, although their three Premier League defeats have all come on the road (at Newcastle, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest respectively). Their tally of 47 goals across all competitions also underlines their exceptional attacking quality, with Ollie Watkins have struck six times in the EPL alone from 36 attempts on goal. Midfielder Douglas Luiz has scored five EPL goals in 2023/24, from an xG value of just 3.2.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 3
Fulham 1
12.11.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
AZ Alkmaar 1
09.11.23
Europa League
Nottingham Forest 2
Aston Villa 0
05.11.23
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Luton 1
29.10.23
Serie A
AZ Alkmaar 1
Aston Villa 4
26.10.23
Europa League

Villa remain without two long-term absentees, in the form of Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendía (both cruciate ligament tears). Left back Álex Moreno also misses out with a hamstring injury, but otherwise, coach Unai Emery should have a fully fit squad to choose from when his side visits North London.

PlayerReason
Tyrone Mings Cruciate Ligament Tear
Emiliano Buendía Cruciate Ligament Tear
Álex Moreno Hamstring Injury

👕 Tottenham vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. Tottenham
4-3-3
Aston Villa
4-2-2-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Vicario E. Martinez Goalkeeper
Right Back P. Porro M. Cash Right Back
Centre Back E. Dier E. Konsa Centre Back
Centre Back B. Davies P. Torres Centre Back
Left Back D. Udogie D. Digne Left Back
Midfielder Y. Bissouma B. Kamara Midfielder
Midfielder P. Højbjerg D. Luiz Midfielder
Midfielder P. M. Sarr Y. Tielemans Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward D. Kulusevski J. McGinn Attacking Midfielder
Striker Son Heung-min M. Diaby Striker
Wide Forward B. Johnson O. Watkins Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

about-author-lewis-humphriesabout-author-lewis-humphries

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.