Tottenham vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Tottenham vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

Spurs and Aston Villa both boast rich and incredible histories, so it’s no surprise that the two teams have contested 172 matches since March 1903. Spurs have won 77 of these matches and lost 59 to their opponents from the West Midlands, although Villa have only prevailed four times in the last 25 fixtures since September 2008.

However, the Villains have won three of their previous five Premier League games, including a superb 2-0 victory on New Years’ Day at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They’ve outperformed Spurs in several key attacking metrics this season too, including total goals scored (26 vs 21), xG values (23.5 and 19.2) and goals per shot (0.13 vs 0.11).

The challenge for Villa is their form on the road, as while they’ve won a staggering 13 consecutive Premier League home games since a 4-2 defeat to Arsenal on February 18th, they’ve lost three of their six matches away from Villa Park in 2023/24 and even have a negative goal difference (-6) across these contests. These games have seen them ship five goals at Newcastle and three at Liverpool, so there’s an obvious fragility here that Spurs will look to exploit.

However, Villa’s pacy attack and ability in transition will pose a huge threat to Spurs’ high defensive line, while injuries to centre back Micky van de Ven and creative playmaker James Maddison will impact the ‘Lilywhites’ at both ends of the pitch. So, I think there’s value in backing a rare and high scoring draw between these two sides at the weekend.

💯 Tottenham vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

Regardless of which sportsbook you choose to wager with from Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews, you’ll be able to access a huge range of Tottenham vs Aston Villa betting markets. Some of these are more popular than others, so here’s my analysis of the best markets and how they’re currently being priced.

🏅 Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

This match is arguably tailormade for matched betting, as it features two evenly matched teams and is incredibly difficult to call. However, Spurs are the early betting favourites here, with an average price of 2.30 implying a 43.47% probability of them defeating the Villains.

Team
Tottenham to Win	2.25	2.30	2.23	2.30	2.38
Aston Villa to Win	2.75	2.75	2.70	2.80	2.80
Draw	3.75	3.75	3.70	3.90	3.90

⚽ Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in nine of Spurs’ 13 matches in all competitions this season, with the North London side keeping four clean sheets and hitting the back of the net in every single game. Both sides have registered in 12 of Villa’s 19 games in 2023/24, with Emery’s men keeping five clean sheets and drawing two blanks (at Liverpool and Nottingham Forest).

Yes/No
Yes	1.40	1.45	1.40	1.44	1.40
No	2.70	2.70	2.66	2.75	2.75

🥅 Tottenham vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Spurs and Villa have contested 32 matches this season, with these fixtures yielding a whopping 112 goals at a rate of 3.50 per game. These two sides have also scored at respective rates of 1.92 and 2.47 goals per game so far in 2023/24, so it’s little wonder that the over/under odds imply a higher probability of more than 2.5 goals scored in the contest.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.50	1.46	1.45	1.50
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.50	2.48	2.60	2.50

1️⃣ Tottenham Update

While Spurs have performed better than expected under Postecoglou and have won eight of their 12 Premier League games in 2023/24, they’ve recently experienced consecutive EPL defeats under the Australian for the first time. While their chaotic 4-1 loss at home to Chelsea can be partially accounted for by the dismissals of Cristian Romero and the aforementioned Udogie, Spurs were passive and toothless against Wolves and only managed two shots on target during the whole game. Postecoglou’s relentlessly high defensive line was also exposed in the game against Chelsea, and Villa’s rapid forward line will look to take advantage of this too.

The defeat at home to Chelsea was costly in more ways than one, as it saw influential centre back Micky van de Ven (hamstring injury) and creative fulcrum James Maddison (ankle) ruled out until December. Cristian Romero will also serve the second of a three-game ban due to his dismissal in this match, and while Destiny Udogie will return from suspension, he’s now a doubt with a muscle injury incurred on international duty. Brazilian striker Richarlison continues his recovery from groin surgery, while Ryan Sessegnon (surgery), Alfie Whiteman (ankle) and Ivan Perisic (cruciate ligament tear) are long-term absentees. Winger Manor Solomon misses out with a meniscus injury.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s winning streak of 13 matches at home has helped set the tone for this season, as they’ve also won 13 times in 19 games across all competitions. This equates to a win rate of 68.42%, although their three Premier League defeats have all come on the road (at Newcastle, Liverpool and Nottingham Forest respectively). Their tally of 47 goals across all competitions also underlines their exceptional attacking quality, with Ollie Watkins have struck six times in the EPL alone from 36 attempts on goal. Midfielder Douglas Luiz has scored five EPL goals in 2023/24, from an xG value of just 3.2.

Villa remain without two long-term absentees, in the form of Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendía (both cruciate ligament tears). Left back Álex Moreno also misses out with a hamstring injury, but otherwise, coach Unai Emery should have a fully fit squad to choose from when his side visits North London.

👕 Tottenham vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.