Newcastle vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

newcastle-v-man-united-prediction-logo newcastle-v-man-united-prediction-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 2nd Dec 23
PredictionBack the Draw!
Back the Draw!
The best odds
Odds : 3.75
Bet €100 and win €375 if the game is drawn.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.75
Bet €100 and win €375 if the game is drawn.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 3.60
Bet €100 and win €360 if the game is drawn.
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Injury-hit Newcastle returns to Premier League action on December 2nd after a heroic performance in the Parc de Princes against PSG. Here, Eddie Howe’s men were denied three points by a controversial late penalty, despite resisting a second-half onslaught that followed Alexander Isak’s predatory 24th minute opener. Despite their obvious lack of fluency, Manchester United will arrive at St James Park as the EPL’s in-form side, while they’ve already silenced one hostile crowd this week after a 3-0 win at Goodison Park. But can they win again here, or will Newcastle deliver on their status as favourites among the best betting sites?

🏆 Newcastle vs Manchester United EPL Prediction

Newcastle and Manchester United have done battle in 177 occasions, with the sides winning 45 and 91 times respectively. However, while the Magpies have only won three of the previous 11 encounters in all competitions since October 2023, this sequence includes consecutive victories in the last two matches (including a 3-0 League Cup triumph at Old Trafford earlier in the season).

Overall, Newcastle have won just five of their last 10 games in all competitions this season, as their form has stuttered against the backdrop of a mounting injury crisis. Conversely, Erik ten Hag’s side have amassed the most Premier League points over the course of the last six matches, winning five of these games and taking 15 points from a possible 18.

No side has accumulated more points during the same period, while United haven’t conceded an EPL goal since Erling Haaland scored City’s third in the Manchester derby on October 29th. Certainly, the Red Devils are more defensively proactive and have completed 705 ball recoveries this season (the fifth highest tally in the division), and this will stand them in good stead against an intense and incredibly efficient Newcastle side.

Remember, Newcastle have outperformed their xG tally by an impressive +5.3, while their goals-to-shot ratio of 0.17 is the highest in the Premier League. These statistics all hint at a competitive and evenly matched game that has draw written all over it, especially after both teams’ Champions League exploits on the road in midweek.

My Prediction: 🏆 Newcastle 1 – 1 Manchester United ⚽

💯 Newcastle vs Manchester United EPL Match Odds

The sites recommended through Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews are offering a huge range of Newcastle vs Manchester United betting markets, including the match winner (or result), BTTS and the over/under on total goals scored. I’m going to preview these markets and their latest odds below!

🏅 Newcastle vs Manchester United: Match Winner

Newcastle is the early favourites to beat Manchester United, with an average price of 1.91 implying a 52.35% probability of the home side prevailing. Conversely, you can back the Red Devils to win at around 3.60, suggesting that they only have a 27.77% chance of winning at St James Park.

Newcastle to Win1.911.951.921.951.95
Man United to Win3.603.503.553.503.70

⚽ Newcastle vs Manchester United: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in eight of Newcastle’s 20 games this season, with Eddie Howe’s tenacious outfit keeping eight clean sheets and drawing five blanks. Both sides have found the back of the net in eight of United’s 19 matches in all competition, with the Red Devils keeping seven clean sheets (including three in successive EPL games) and failing to score on four occasions.


🥅 Newcastle vs Manchester United: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Newcastle and Manchester United have contested 39 matches in 2023/24, with these games producing 117 goals at a rate of exactly 3.00 per 90 minutes. The Magpies also plundered three goals without reply at Old Trafford in the EPL Cup on November 1st, so the over/under odds unsurprisingly imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this contest.

Over 2.5 Goals1.671.751.691.701.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️ Newcastle vs Manchester United - Betting Tips

In even and keenly contested games of this type, matched betting is an excellent way of creating value and making use of any available free bets on your account. But how else can you make the most of your bankroll when wagering on this contest? I’ve provided some expert betting tips below!

  • Tip 1: Back There to be Under 2.5 Goals Scored: While the odds imply a higher probability of there being over 2.5 goals scored at St James Park, Newcastle and Manchester United may struggle with the intensity of this game given their respective midweek efforts in the Champions League. Since September 2021, four of the five matches contested by these sides have also seen under 2.5 goals scored, while you can get on this market at a price of 2.05 with Dachbet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Alexander Isak as an Anytime Goalscorer: The recent return of Alexander Isak from injury has been a huge boon for Newcastle, with the Swedish hitman having struck seven Premier League goals in just nine appearances this season. These goals have come from just 18 goal attempts and an xG value of 6.0, so there’s value in backing him to score at any time against Manchester United at a price of 2.50 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the Draw: Newcastle arguably deserve to be favourites here given their record of eight wins and just two defeats in 10 matches at St James Park this season. However, they expelled a great deal of energy during their midweek draw in Paris, having had just 28% possession during the 90 minutes. As for United, their win at Everton last week was their first by more than two clear goals since September 26th (a League Cup tie with Crystal Palace), so this should be an incredibly tight game in which the draw offers value at a price of 3.75 with Betway.

1️⃣ Newcastle Update

Newcastle’s run of eight home wins in 10 games has included six EPL victories, with Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund the only sides to beat the Magpies at St James Park this season. Overall, they’ve only lost three of their last 17 games in all competitions since February 18th, while their Premier League xG value of 25.7 is now the fourth highest in the League. Individually, both Isak and fellow striker Callum Wilson have exceeded their own xG values of 6.0 and 5.9 respectively this season, while winger Anthony Gordon has scored five EPL goals from an xG value of just 3.5. So, if they create chances, they’re highly efficient and a match for any opponent.

Last 5 Games
Newcastle 1
Champions League
Newcastle 4
Chelsea 1
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Newcastle 0
Premier League
Borussia Dortmund 2
Newcastle 0
Champions League
Newcastle 1
Arsenal 0
Premier League

Alexander Isak and centre-back Fabian Schar both returned to action in the 4-1 win over Chelsea last weekend, while Miguel Almiron was passed fit ahead of the UCL clash with PSG. Sean Longstaff is also expected to be in contention for a starting place against Manchester United, easing Newcastle’s injury crisis somewhat. However, Sven Botman (knee), Elliott Anderson (back) and Callum Wilson (hamstring) have all been ruled out, as has Matt Targett (also hamstring). Harvey Barnes (foot), Dan Burn (back), Joe Willock (Achilles tendon problems) and Jacob Murphy (shoulder) are longer-term absentees, while Sandro Tonali continues to serve his hefty 10-game suspension.

Sven Botman Knee Injury
Elliott Anderson Back Injury
Callum Wilson Hamstring Injury
Matt Targett Hamstring Injury
Harvey Barnes Foot Injury
Dan Burn Back Injury
Joe Willock Achilles Tendon Problems
Jacob Murphy Shoulder Injury
Sandro Tonali Suspended

2️⃣ Man United Update

Given the criticism that Manchester United and their manager Erik ten Hag have faced this season, it’s incredible to think that the side sits just six points off the top of the EPL table and is only four points adrift of the top four. This is thanks largely to a run of five wins in six Premier League matches, which have seen the side keep three successive clean sheets and suffer a single defeat to Manchester City. In the EPL, the Red Devils haven’t lost on the road since an unfortunate 3-1 defeat at league leaders Arsenal on September 3rd, while the return of Luke Shaw at left back has come at a truly optimal time. All eyes will be on young Argentinian winger Alejandro Garnacho too, after his goal of the season contender at Goodison last weekend.

Last 5 Games
Everton 0
Man United 3
Premier League
Man United 1
Luton 0
Premier League
FC Copenhagen 4
Man United 3
Champions League
Fulham 0
Man United 1
Premier League
Man United 0
Newcastle 3

The return of Luke Shaw from injury and Aaron Wan-Bissaka from illness has boosted United significantly, while young Danish striker Rasmus Hojlund is expected to have recovered from a hamstring strain. However, Lisandro Martinez (foot), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Jonny Evans (hamstring) remain key defensive absentees, while Casemiro is also sidelined with a knock. Midfield partner Cristian Eriksen (knee) has been ruled out until December, so the impressive Kobbie Mainoo is expected to anchor the middle of the park once again at St James Park. Mason Mount (unknown injury) and winger Amad Diallo (knee) have also been ruled out for the trip to Newcastle.

Lisandro Martinez Foot Injury
Tyrell Malacia Knee Injury
Jonny Evans Hamstring Injury
Casemiro Knock
Cristian Eriksen Knee Injury
Mason Mount Unknown Injury
Amad Diallo Knee Injury

👕 Newcastle vs Man United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Newcastle
Man United
Goalkeeper N. Pope A. Onana Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Trippier A. Wan Bissaka Right Back
Centre Back F. Schar H. Maguire Centre Back
Centre Back J. Lascelles V. Lindelof Centre Back
Left Back T. Livramento L. Shaw Left Back
Midfielder S. Longstaff K. Mainoo Midfielder
Midfielder B. Guimarães S. McTominay Midfielder
Midfielder Joelinton B. Fernandes Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Almiron M. Rashford Wide Forward
Striker A. Isak R. Hojlund Striker
Wide Forward A. Gordon A. Garnacho Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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