Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

newcastle-chelsea-logo newcastle-chelsea-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 25th Nov 23
PredictionChelsea to Win!
Odds2.80
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.80
Bet €100 and win €280 if Chelsea win.
Bonus:
2.
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 2.80
Bet €100 and win €280 if Chelsea win.
Bonus:
3.
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 2.75
Bet €100 and win €275 if Chelsea win.
Bonus:
newcastle-chelsea-logo newcastle-chelsea-logo

It’s fair to surmise that this Premier League game may have come a little too soon for Newcastle, with the side currently without at least 10 first team players and opponents Chelsea enjoying an upswing in form. The Blues were certainly impressive when holding Manchester City to a thrilling 4-4 draw prior to the international break, while they have an excellent record against Newcastle during the EPL era. However, St. James Park remains a fortress for Eddie Howe’s men, so they’ll push the Blues all the way in front of an impassioned home crowd. But who do I think will win, and what are the latest odds from the best betting sites?

🏆 Newcastle vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

As I’ve touched on, Chelsea hold the recent aNd historic H2H advantage over Newcastle, having won 78 of the 173 games contested since September 1907. Chelsea have also lost just one of their previous six Premier League games against the Magpies, although Newcastle’s last seven wins against the Blues since February 2013 have all come at St James Park.

Chelsea have also performed better than their results suggest in the 2023/24 campaign, with the side’s xG value of 25.2 second only to Liverpool. Under Mauricio Pochettino, the Blues have also averaged an impressive 60.3% possession across all Premier League games, while completing 632 ball recoveries and 35 tackles in the attacking third of the pitch.

Even more worryingly for Newcastle, the Blues are now starting to see the fruits of their labour, with their home draw with champions City following a 4-1 win at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. As for the Magpies, their own form has become increasingly inconsistent amid a slew of injuries and suspensions, winning three and losing three of their previous eight games.

While Newcastle cannot be discounted at home (they’ve won six of their last seven matches at St James Park), their squad is being stretched to break point at present, and Chelsea have enough quality and momentum to put them to the sword on Saturday.

My Prediction: 🏆 Newcastle 1 – 2 Chelsea ⚽

💯 Newcastle vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

If you check out the market leading sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews, you’ll see that each one is offering a huge range of markets pertaining to the clash between Newcastle and Chelsea. I’ll review the three most popular markets below along with their most recent odds.

🏅 Newcastle vs Chelsea: Match Winner

The bookies are clearly split on which side will win at St James Park, with Newcastle’s average price of 2.50 implying a 40.0% probability of a home victory. Conversely, you can back the visitors to prevail at around 2.75, suggesting that the West London outfit have a 36.36% chance of emerging victorious!

Team
Newcastle to Win2.402.502.402.492.42
Chelsea to Win2.702.702.692.802.75
Draw3.353.403.403.553.50

⚽ Newcastle vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just six of Newcastle’s 18 matches across all competitions this season, with Howe’s men keeping a total of eight clean sheets and failing to score on five occasions (including their 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth last time out). As for Chelsea, both sides have scored in seven of their 15 games in 2023/24, with the Blues drawing blanks on five occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.631.651.611.681.62
No2.052.202.172.202.20

🥅 Newcastle vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Across the 33 matches contested by both Newcastle United and Chelsea this season, a total of 95 goals have been scored at a rate of 2.87 per game. This statistic is reflected by the odds, which imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.811.831.761.841.81
Under 2.5 Goals1.911.951.932.021.96

✔️ Newcastle vs Chelsea - Betting Tips

Whether you want to wager a percentage of your bankroll on the EPL clash between Newcastle and Chelsea or deploy one or more free bets on your account, it’s crucial that you wager strategically and look to create value in your chosen betting markets. Here are some tips to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Back Chelsea to Win Outright: As the bookies are largely split on the outcome of this match, you can back Chelsea to win outright at the competitive price of 2.80 with LegendPlay Sport. However, I’m not sure these odds take into account the sheer scale of Newcastle’s injury list, with the team’s lack of squad depth likely to be exposed even further against the increasingly in-form Blues.
  • Tip 2: Leverage Matched Betting: The evenly matched nature of these two teams also make matched betting a viable strategy here. In this case, I’d recommend laying a back bet on Chelsea to win at a reputable betting exchange (such as Ladbrokes), in order to cover all potential match outcomes and guarantee some form of return. Just be sure to compare the market for the best odds on a Chelsea win and make sure you meet the T&Cs for any qualifying wager!
  • Tip 3: Back Raheem Sterling as an Anytime Goalscorer: Despite his recent England omission, Raheem Sterling has returned to his best under Pochettino this season and already scored four EPL goals from an xG value of 3.1. The forward also has eight Premier League goals and two assists in 18 games against Newcastle (and nine goals in 19 matches overall), so there’s value in backing Sterling as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 3.50 with TonyBet Sports.

1️⃣ Newcastle United Update

Newcastle looked a shadow of their usual selves against Bournemouth last time out, as they were outworked, overran and ultimately outplayed by the Cherries before being downed by a Dominic Solanke brace. They’ve now won just two of their previous five Premier League games, having recorded successive 2-2 draws on the road at West Ham and Wolves prior to their defeat on the South Coast. Across all competitions, the side have won nine of their 18 games this season to achieve a win-rate of 50%, while losing six games in total and drawing on three occasions.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 2
Newcastle 0
11.11.23
Premier League
Borussia Dortmund 2
Newcastle 0
07.11.23
Champions League
Newcastle 1
Arsenal 0
04.11.23
Premier League
Man United 0
Newcastle 3
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Wolves 2
Newcastle 2
28.10.23
Premier League

There may be some good news for Newcastle ahead of their game against Chelsea, with defender Fabian Schar (hamstring injury) and striker Alexander Isak (groin) both back in training and potentially in contention to feature. However, Sean Longstaff (ankle) and Miguel Almiron (hamstring) were injured in the defeat at Bournemouth and remain significant doubts, while Harvey Barnes (foot), Sven Botman (knee), Jacob Murphy (shoulder) and Elliot Anderson (back) are long-term absentees. Dan Burn (back) and Callum Wilson (hamstring) are expected to miss out too, while on-loan full back Lewis Hall is ineligible to play against his parent club. Midfielder Sandro Tonali also continues his 10-month suspension and won’t return until next season.

PlayerReason
Sean Longstaff Ankle Injury
Miguel Almiron Hamstring Injury
Harvey Barnes Foot Injury
Sven Botman Knee Injury
Jacob Murphy Shoulder Injury
Elliot Anderson Back Injury
Dan Burn Back Injury
Callum Wilson Hamstring Injury
Lewis Hall Ineligible
Sandro Tonali Suspended

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

When Chelsea lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa on September 24th, they slumped to 14th in the table and had won just two of their previous 18 EPL matches since March 11th. However, the side have since began to convert their much improved performances under Pochettino into positive results, losing just one of their last nine games in all competitions and rising to the heady heights of 10th in the Premier League. The team has also started to find its collective shooting boots, hitting eight goals in the previous two EPL matches and reducing the difference between their xG value and total goals scored to -5.2.

Last 5 Games
Chelsea 4
Manchester City 4
12.11.23
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Chelsea 4
06.11.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Blackburn 0
01.11.23
EFL Cup
Chelsea 0
Brentford 2
28.10.23
Premier League
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 2
21.10.23
Premier League

Of course, the Blues have their own injury issues to deal with, with defenders Wesley Fofana (cruciate ligament tear) and Trevoh Chalobah (thigh problems) long-term absentees. Summer signings Romeo Lavia (ankle injury) and Christopher Nkunku (knee) have yet to make their first appearances for their new side too, although both could be available for selection against Newcastle. Ben Chilwell (hamstring) and 20-year-old Carney Chukwuemeka (knee) have been ruled out, however, but defender Levi Colwill is hoping to shake off a minor knock in time for the trip to the northeast.

PlayerReason
Christopher Nkunku Knee Injury / Match Fitness
Romeo Lavia Ankle Injury
Wesley Fofana Cruciate Ligament Tear
Trevoh Chalobah Thigh Injury
Ben Chilwell Hamstring Injury
Carney Chukwuemeka Knee Injury
Levi Colwill Knock

👕 Newcastle vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups

Pos. Newcastle
4-3-3
Chelsea
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper N. Pope R. Sanchez Goalkeeper
Right Back T. Livramento R. James Right Back
Centre Back F. Schar A. Disasi Centre Back
Centre Back J. Lascelles T. Silva Centre Back
Left Back K. Trippier L. Colwill Left Back
Midfielder L. Miley M. Caicedo Midfielder
Midfielder B. Guimarães E. Fernandez Midfielder
Midfielder J. Willock C. Gallagher Midfielder
Wide Forward A. Gordon R. Sterling Wide Forward
Striker A. Isak N. Jackson Striker
Wide Forward Joelinton C. Palmer Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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